Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The American Express
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
Featured Promo! Save 30% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESSPGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The American Express
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (296-228-30) 56.48%
- In-Tournament H2Hs (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (596-428-85) 58.20%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 51
- Units: +340.903 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2025
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record:
- (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles
- Nine first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
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You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!
Field
Field Size: 156
Cut: Top-65 Ties (Cut on Saturday)
Top 20 Entrants: 6
Last Five Winners of the American Express
| 2024 | Nick Dunlap | -29 |
| 2023 | Jon Rahm | -27 |
| 2022 | Hudson Swafford | -23 |
| 2021 | Si Woo Kim | -23 |
| 2020 | Andrew Landry | -26 |
Expected Cut-Line at the AMEX
| 2024 | -8 |
| 2023 | -7 |
| 2022 | -6 |
| 2021 | -6 |
| 2020 | -5 |
PGA West Stadium + La Quinta + Nicklaus Tournament
7,200 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Overseeded Bermuda
The field will be required to take on a three-course rotation (PGA West, La Quinta and Nicklaus Tournament) between Thursday and Saturday, highlighted by an abnormal 54-hole cut and Pro-Am nature that prolongs rounds. From there, the top 65 players (and ties) who make the final day on Sunday will head back to the PGA West Stadium Course.
That at least helps to marginally ease the handicapping process when we know where play will inevitably end on Sunday, but the dreaded removal of 'Stat Tracker' elsewhere only amplifies the model-building dilemma since we are flying blind whenever a golfer tees it up on the Nicklaus Tournament Course or La Quinta track.
Here is what we do know:
Average Scores Per Day All Three Tracks
PGA West (-1.98)
Nicklaus (-2.55)
La Quinta (-2.86)
That factor fails to take into consideration the new greens and bunkers at PGA West, which will likely harden the course and further enhance the difficulty compared to the other two tracks. I would be cautious of that answer when playing Showdown contests.
We also have three courses that are considered short Par 72 properties that should deliver par-five scoring potential. Golfers who have demonstrated an edge on those holes have typically been the ones who have catapulted themselves up the leaderboard.
The final crux of that answer still comes down to how you handle the marginally more difficult Stadium Course and nine holes that have water. Some combination of total driving (geared toward accuracy) is generally a good place to start your research if you want to avoid tournament-ending danger, and the extensive bunkering can make finding fairways imperative, especially when you realize they produce around the highest birdie percentages on tour yearly when you play from the short grass.
Strokes Gained Dispersion Importance
***These are the expected production rates for players that landed under each threshold.
Winners
OTT - 19.8%
APP - 47.3%
ATG -1.2%
Putt - 31.5%
Top Five Performers
OTT - 17.1%
APP - 43.6%
ATG - 9.0%
Putt - 30.2%
Top 10 Performers
OTT - 15.4%
APP - 42.0%
ATG - 11.8%
Putt - 30.6%
Top 20 Performers
OTT - 16.8%
APP - 40.1%
ATG - 9.3%
Putt - 33.8%
Cut Makers
OTT - 16.5%
APP - 40.6%
ATG - 13.0%
Putt - 29.9%
Miss Cut
OTT - 16.8%
APP - 39.5%
ATG - 12.0%
Putt - 31.6%
Look, you can't avoid some of the putting that Jon Rahm complained about at the La Quinta and Nicklaus Tournament tracks, but PGA West delivers a massive predictive nature with the irons.
Profiles That Most Closely Resemble That Of Past Winners
This doesn't mean these are the most likely players to win the title, but what it does suggest is that these players are most similar statistically to those who have won here in the past:
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | AMEX | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 280 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 59% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 66% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 63% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.30 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted Strokes Gained Total (30%)
Strokes Gained Total: Short Par 72s (10%)
Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring (10%)
Fairway Birdie or Better (10%)
Aggression (10%)
Similar Profiles (10%)
Weighted Scoring (20%)
Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.
First Look Into Outright Bets
| Player | Price |
| Justin Thomas | 18 |
| Wyndham Clark | 35 |
| Keith Mitchell | 100 |
| Daniel Berger | 110 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 55 |
Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form
(Players that are likely to be better for this property) - Only look at the top 50 projected players for either 'Overall' or 'Upside'
A handful of outright bets for me have made this list.
Worse Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form
Golfers to Land in the Top 70 of the Field for All Categories
Golfers to Land in the Top 40 of the Field for All Categories
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.
I left the top 10 rankings above with Xander Schauffele included since I got halfway through my article before the withdrawal news broke.
It is important to remember that when something like this occurs, there is a big difference between outright totals and DFS ownership.
We were looking at roughly a 6-10% win equity percentage for Schauffele. The market will overcorrect itself over the next couple of days and shift everything into oblivion, but that 6-10% actual win equity will get very marginally spread amongst the 156 players teeing it up at the AMEX.
My model gave Tony Finau a little more of a boost versus his standard price than any player on the slate, but the point I am trying to make is that the entire field splits that projected number to some degree.
For DFS, that answer changes since a player's price tag will correlate with the newly opened popularity shift. That means options like Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas, and Sam Burns (in the 9k range) will be the first to realize the increased projection that will come from Schauffele's removal from the field. If you were planning to deploy all three, you may need to go back to the drawing board.
I don't want to use this article to talk anyone out of a specific route because all three are playable in different ways. Nonetheless, I would rank Thomas above Burns or Sungjae because of his heightened ceiling output in my model. I always prefer Sungjae at a cheaper price tag in GPPs, just so we don't have to worry so much about his recent lack of win equity at a high ownership percentage.
Thomas has a profile that mimics that of past winners and carries one of the highest upside marks with his irons of any player in the field.
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Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
I talked about Russell Henley and Keegan Bradley in the $9,000 section last week as popular options I was going to back on the slate.
I don't necessarily feel as safe going down that path with Tony Finau and Sam Burns since Burns lacks any of the approach acumen that you would want to see (not to mention that chalk becomes less enticing when everyone is guaranteed 54 holes), but the high-end output for each will have me eating the chalk in this spot.
If you want to get marginally unique, Wyndham Clark remains universally underrated most events.
My core near the top will involve combinations of Thomas/Finau/Burns/Clark, as well as playing Cantlay.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
Datagolf is responsible for nuking the Kurt Kitayama outright price, but it doesn't come without tons of merit.
Kitayama ranks fifth in this field for Weighted Proximity, 12th in Expected Off The Tee Production and landed first in this field for the player who had a current profile that most resembled past winners.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)
Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!
I decided to go with Mitchell and Berger for my outright card, although the fear of Mac Meissner winning is a real concern. As someone who has backed Meissner in probably 90% of his starts, it is something that I will have difficulty with when it comes to sleeping if he pulls this off.
Mitchell has looked broken for the past few months, but a course that enhances his scoring nature, ball striking and overall profile is one that is worth taking a swing.
$6,000 Options to Consider
If you scroll up to the top of the article where I showed the best course fits versus what their current form has been, you will notice Patton Kizzire sitting there.
The floor leaves a ton to be desired, but there isn't a golfer that epitomizes desert golf better than Kizzire if we believe his ceiling can be reached.
Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):
$10,000+ - Justin Thomas
$9,000+ - Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns
$8,000+ - Kurt Kitayama, Nick Dunlap
$7,000+ - Tom Hoge, Keith Mitchell, Mac Meissner, Daniel Berger
$6,000+ - Patton Kizzire
Least Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):
***This still has time to change
$10,000+ - None - However, I am not playing Sungjae to the degree of the industry. The price and ownership makes him a better cash-game play.
$9,000+ - Tom Kim
$8,000+ - Nick Taylor
$7,000+ - Let's see where ownership lands
$6,000+ - Max McGreevy
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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
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