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Hey, RotoBallers! It's Jon Anderson back for another "primer" for the Sunday NFL slate. I hope this helped last week and will continue to help throughout the year. It should be used as just a way to start the week.
I'm no NFL DFS expert by any means, so I'm trying my best to just stick to the projections here. You will find some plays here that stick out just because of their projection and price, we aren't looking at things in terms of stacks or game theory or anything like that - so just keep all of that in mind.
We are looking at the DraftKings NFL DFS main slate on Sunday, October 9th. This analysis and picks will get stronger as we get deeper into the season as more data and clarity comes to the front. Let's dive into it!
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Game Environments
Top over/unders on the main slate:
- PHI @ ARI: 50 points
- ATL @ TB: 48 points
- LAC @ CLE: 48 points
- PIT @ BUF: 47 points
Top team implied points totals:
- BUF: 31 points
- TB: 28 points
- PHI: 27 points
- JAX: 26 points
- BAL: 26 points
- NO: 26 points
- MIN: 26 points
The Bills have the highest projection, but we have the "blowout" risk here as they are a two-touchdown favorite against Kenny Pickett and the Steelers. The Bucs are in a similar situation as a nine-point favorite against Atlanta, who is really short on playmakers now with Cordarelle Patterson on the IR and they're seeming lack of confidence in Mariota. The game of the week may be Philadelphia and Arizona, but again, I don't want to get too deep into actual analysis as we have plenty of better people here for that.
Let's take a look at the projections and values.
DraftKings NFL DFS Quarterbacks
Top Raw Projections
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Josh Allen | $8,200 | PIT | 27.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | $8,100 | ARI | 24.0 |
| Tom Brady | $6,000 | ATL | 21.7 |
| Justin Herbert | $7,100 | CLE | 21.5 |
| Kyler Murray | $7,400 | PHI | 20.3 |
Top Values
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Tom Brady | $6,000 | ATL | 21.7 |
| Marcus Mariota | $5,400 | TB | 18.6 |
| Josh Allen | $8,200 | PIT | 27.4 |
| Geno Smith | $5,500 | NO | 17.8 |
| Kenny Pickett | $5,100 | BUF | 16.0 |
Lots of analysis left to do, we're just getting started here, but it seems like there's no great cheap option at Quarterback. Tom Brady is the clear-cut guy by the projections, but we have a relatively low floor and ceiling with him as a big favorite on a team likely to win the game handily. Of course, if the game is a blowout, that typically means a good game from the QB, but you are always elevating your risk by taking a QB that doesn't run.
That said, I don't really think we should be super excited to play Josh Allen against the Steelers. His floor is incredibly solid, it would seem crazy to not think he'll get the 20-25 points here, but I'm not sure if that 40 point ceiling exists in a game that will likely be over by the fourth quarter.
The play of the week might be Jalen Hurts, as the Eagles have shown very impressive offensive ability and they get a team that maybe can keep pace with them this week.
The punt of the week is probably Steelers rookie Kenny Pickett. He looked okay in his first go at it last Sunday against the Jets. Playing the Bills in Buffalo is a tough spot to be in, but he should have plenty of opportunity to throw the ball - and he's likely to be a runner too whether he wants to be or not, we tend to see that a lot with rookie quarterbacks who don't really know what they're looking at out there.
DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs
Top Raw Projections
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Austin Ekeler | $7,800 | CLE | 18.9 |
| Christian McCaffrey | $8,500 | SF | 18.7 |
| Leonard Fournette | $6,900 | ATL | 18.1 |
| Derrick Henry | $8,200 | WAS | 16.6 |
| Dalvin Cook | $7,300 | CAR | 16.5 |
Top Values
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Leonard Fournette | $6,900 | ATL | 18.1 |
| Austin Ekeler | $7,800 | CLE | 18.9 |
| James Conner | $6,300 | PHI | 14.7 |
| Najee Harris | $6,500 | BUF | 15.0 |
| Dalvin Cook | $7,300 | CAR | 16.5 |
Austin Ekeler finally found the endzone in week four, and he did it twice! He has seen 29 targets in three games while adding on 45 rush attempts. He is one of the highest upside players in the league, and he finds himself in a pretty decent game environment here as the Browns have been pretty efficient even in their run-heavy ways.
Christian McCaffrey put up his best game of the year, with nine catches in week four, adding a touchdown and scoring 26 DraftKings points. He has at least 15 points in every game so far and it was really good to see that huge pass game role return. It's a pretty brutal matchup for CMC though, so maybe he'll be more of a tournament play.
Another Buccaneer makes the list as Leonard Fournette is the top value back. Interesting he ran the ball just three times in week four, but that was because the Bucs completely abandoned the run game in that, throwing the ball at a rate of 89%. Fournette still had a good fantasy game with 18 points as he caught all seven of his targets for 57 yards and a touchdown. The Bucs should be in a spot to run the ball a bit more, but even so - Fournette's role is elite and his floor is fantastic.
If you're stacking up the Eagles and Cardinals game, James Conner should probably be a part of that as he's been the main back for Arizona. He carried it 15 times last week and added three targets. He has doubled up Eno Benjamin, his backup, in carries his year and leads the team in carries inside the ten yard line with seven.
DraftKings NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Top Raw Projections
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Cooper Kupp | $9,600 | DAL | 26.0 |
| Stefon Diggs | $8,400 | PIT | 23.1 |
| Justin Jefferson | $8,900 | CHI | 22.0 |
| Tyreek Hill | $8,000 | NYJ | 19.7 |
| Mike Evans | $6,900 | ATL | 17.4 |
Top Values
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Stefon Diggs | $8,400 | PIT | 23.1 |
| Cooper Kupp | $9,600 | DAL | 26.0 |
| Chris Olave | $5,700 | SEA | 14.8 |
| Rondale Moore | $4,100 | PHI | 10.4 |
| Mike Evans | $6,900 | ATL | 17.4 |
Cooper Kupp has scored 35, 35, 16, and 29 DraftKings points this year, making him a pretty good way just to lock in one of those fire symbols on your lineup. It does make the rest of the build pretty tough, but honestly he's probably still too cheap.
Stefon Diggs has the same problems as Josh Allen this week, but with more risk just in case the Bills get up huge without getting a ton from him (unlikely given his role, but possible). Good matchups for the rest of the big five up there with Jefferson, Hill, and Evans - with Evans price tag being significantly cheaper. The Evans + Brady combination seems pretty appealing here against the Falcons.
Chris Olave also has one of the best roles in the entire league, averaging 9.3 targets per game (17th in the league) with an ADoT of 18.2 (leads the league). His upside is seemingly huge, especially if Alvin Kamara gets back in the game to take some attention away from the defense.
One other guy not mentioned above that might be very interesting is George Pickens ($4,300). Given the preseason and what we saw in week four, he seems to be a preferred target of Pickett's.
The floor is basically zero with this Steelers offense right now, but for $4,300 he's interesting.
DraftKings NFL DFS Tight Ends
Top Raw Projections
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| T.J. Hockenson | $4,900 | NE | 11.7 |
| Kyle Pitts | $4,400 | TB | 11.4 |
| George Kittle | $5,200 | CAR | 10.4 |
| Zach Ertz | $4,800 | PHI | 10.2 |
| Tyler Higbee | $4,300 | DAL | 10.1 |
Top Values
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Evan Engram | $3,100 | HOU | 8.6 |
| Dalton Schultz | $3,400 | LAR | 9.0 |
| Irv Smith | $3,200 | CHI | 8.4 |
| Kyle Pitts | $4,400 | TB | 11.4 |
| David Njoku | $3,800 | LAC | 9.4 |
Last week was pretty easy at tight end with Hockenson an easy pick with Amon-Ra St. Brown and D'Andre Swift out. St. Brown may be returning, but Swift probably isn't - and the price is up on Hockenson. It feels point-chasey to go back to him, but if those two names are both out he's probably the top play on the board.
It might be a full punt week, and we have some good options for that with Engram and Higbee priced pretty nicely for their roles.
That's all I've got to offer here, hope this helps start off your week's research - I wish you all the best!
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