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Jon Anderson looks into the NFL DFS projections for week five to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your DraftKings DFS lineups.
Hey, RotoBallers! It's Jon Anderson back again to open up the week 12 DFS slate! If you're new here, this is not meant to be a definitive "picks" article, but just a first look to point out the best game environments and best projections and value plays. Quite often, by Sunday I'm not on all of the plays I start with here, but it does set the table for the rest of the week of search.
Again, I don't think it's profitable to build a lineup based on these picks, and certainly not this early in the week. You should be focusing heavily on game environments and correlations when building lineups, and this post doesn't really give you that. It's just a table-setter to look at the slate from a high level and pick out these mid-priced players. I hope it is helping, and I will continue to make it stronger as we move forward.
We are looking past Thanksgiving to the DraftKings NFL DFS main slate on Sunday, November 27th. Here we go!
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Game Environments
We have three games on Thursday and then two more on Sunday and Monday nights, so we are really limited here on the main slate.
Island game teams
- Bills
- Lions
- Cowboys
- Giants
- Vikings
- Patriots
- Eagles
- Packers
- Steelers
- Colts
Lots of juice missing, here are the top game environments at this point in the week:
- LVR @ SEA: 48 O/U, 4 point spread
- LAC @ ARI: 48 O/U, 4 point spread
- MIA @ HOU: 46 O/U, 13 point spread
- LAR @ KC: 44 O/U, 15 point spread
Another week without a standout game, let's get into the position-by-position look.
DraftKings NFL DFS Quarterbacks
Top Raw Projections
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Patrick Mahomes | $8,200 | LAR | 25.9 |
| Lamar Jackson | $8,000 | JAX | 24.2 |
| Justin Fields | $7,400 | NYJ | 21.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $6,900 | HOU | 20.8 |
| Justin Herbert | $7,000 | ARI | 20.3 |
Top Values
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $5,600 | NOR | 19.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | $5,500 | BAL | 18.0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | $5,300 | ATL | 17.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $8,200 | LAR | 25.9 |
| Marcus Mariota | $5,500 | WAS | 17.3 |
Patrick Mahomes is now the top fantasy scorer in the league, having racked up 280.4 DraftKings points over his 10 games. He has scored more than 30 points in four straight outings now. The Rams matchup isn't the best, as QB scoring has been low against them all year besides one Josh Allen game in week one. Andy Dalton has been the only other QB to get to 20 fantasy points against this defense, although they really haven't faced a very impressive list of QBs so far.
There also isn't much else to like here, as the top-value options really aren't inspiring, so I'm pretty interested in getting to Mahomes in this spot.
The fallback plan may be Trevor Lawrence, as ugly as that feels. He has scored 25, 22, 7, 17, and 21 points the last five games, so you would certainly that average output for just $5,500. Tough week at QB, and much more to say, but for now - I'm moving on!
DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs
Top Raw Projections
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Christian McCaffrey | $8,800 | NOR | 23.6 |
| Austin Ekeler | $8,500 | ARI | 21.1 |
| Justin Jacobs | $7,700 | SEA | 20.7 |
| Derrick Henry | $8,300 | CIN | 20.6 |
| Joe Mixon | $7,000 | TEN | 19.8 |
Top Values
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Latavius Murray | $5,000 | CAR | 15.5 |
| Joe Mixon | $7,000 | TEN | 19.8 |
| Dameon Pierce | $6,100 | MIA | 16.9 |
| Justin Jacobs | $7,700 | SEA | 20.7 |
| Kenneth Walker | $6,900 | LVR | 18.4 |
We aren't left studless at running back, with five big names here headlining the position. CMC has only really had one retro-CMC game this year, scoring 40 points in week eight against the Rams. He has scored 18 points in both of his games as a 49er, which is obviously not what we're looking for at $8,800. However, he has just one touchdown in these two games and has racked up 13 targets the last two weeks while also handling 21 carries. He's a great floor play with a huge ceiling against the Saints.
Jacobs may be the top play, significantly cheaper than these other names here, and in the best matchup. He has seen over 20 carries five different times this year, and has seven games with four or more targets. However, since that huge 39.5-point game in week seven, he's averaged just 15.8 points - which again, is not what we're looking for at this price. There's a good chance he finds the endzone a couple of times here against a bad Seahawks defense, and I think he's the top play of the bunch here.
The value guy sticking out right now is Latavius Murray after the Broncos lost both Melvin Gordon (cut) and Chase Edmonds (injury) this week. I wouldn't expect the Broncos' offense to do much, but Murray will certainly be in line for extra work - and the goalline carries.
One more name to mention is Pierce. He has had two really disappointing games in a row now and carried the rock just 10 times last week while adding only two catches. That was a far cry from the workload he had seen in the six or so weeks prior to that, so I think we can get a bounce-back game for him here against the Dolphins.
DraftKings NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Top Raw Projections
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $7,700 | LAC | 26.1 |
| Tyreek Hill | $8,800 | HOU | 21.3 |
| Davante Adams | $8,600 | SEA | 21.0 |
| Tee Higgins | $6,900 | TEN | 18.7 |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,200 | LVR | 15.4 |
Top Values
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| DeAndre Hopkins | $7,700 | LAC | 26.1 |
| Zay Jones | $4,600 | BAL | 13.8 |
| Justin Watson | $3,000 | LAR | 8.8 |
| Tee Higgins | $6,900 | TEN | 18.7 |
| Garrett Wilson | $4,300 | CHI | 10.8 |
The projections are loving Hopkins, making him the top raw play and top value play. He has earned 14, 14, 5, 14, and 12 targets in his five games back from injury, and has cleared 90 receiving yards in four of those five games. He has not found paydirt in his last two games, but it's not for lack of targets. There's a good chance the Cardinals get Kyler Murray back here, which should be at least slightly good news for their ability to move the ball. Gotta love Hopkins under $8,000 there.
Tyreek Hill is also back on the slate after his bye week, and he remains one of the top fantasy players in the league. He has gone over 30 DraftKings points four times this year and has been under 20 just five times. He's great, and the Texans are a defense that is easy to beat - a potential massive eruption spot for Tyreek here.
The interesting spot for value at WR may be the Chiefs, who are currently without Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kadarius Toney. If Juju and Toney miss again, there is a lot of opportunity in this wide receiving fore. Justin Watson saw four targets in week 11, and Skyy Moore saw six. Those two will be quite interesting as very cheap wide receiver plays - but keep a close eye on the injury report there.
DraftKings NFL DFS Tight Ends
Top Raw Projections
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Travis Kelce | $7,700 | LAR | 19.2 |
| Mark Andrews | $6,500 | JAX | 14.8 |
| MyCole Pruitt | $2,500 | WAS | 11.0 |
| Tyler Higbee | $4,200 | KAN | 10.3 |
| George Kittle | $5,300 | NOR | 10.2 |
Top Values
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| MyCole Pruitt | $2,500 | WAS | 11.0 |
| Hayden Hurst | $3,300 | TEN | 9.2 |
| Greg Dulcich | $3,700 | CAR | 10.2 |
| David Njoku | $3,600 | TB | 9.3 |
| Evan Engram | $3,200 | BAL | 8.1 |
We have Kelce and Andrews back on the slate here after several weeks without them. Kelce has two different three-touchdown games now, which has bloated his average scoring quite a bit. He has three games under 20 points this year, which would be a pretty bad score for $7,700 and does give us some pause on paying up for him, especially in this spot which is a negative as a whole for the Chiefs.
Andrews and the Ravens have also struggled quite a bit lately, and Andrews scored just a dozen points in his return last week against the Panthers. The ceiling is still super high, and all signs point toward him being fully healthy now. The price has also ticked down to $6,500, which makes him very, very interesting.
The projection here is all wrong about MyCole Pruitt, however, he will fill for Kyle Pitts who was running a bunch of routes and getting a good target share. Clearly, he is not the same athlete as Pitts - but a handful of targets for Pruitt are likely here.
Dulcich is also a nice play as he's shown a really good role since re-joining the team. He has 3, 9, 5, 4, and 5 targets in his five games, and his 12.5 ADoT is second to only Pitts at the tight end position. A blowup game may be coming for Dulcich.
That's it, we've popped the top on another tough Sunday NFL DFS slate. I hope this gets us ahead of the curve on Sunday a bit as most people have their attention on the Thanksgiving slate. Thanks for reading!
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