RADIO
DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 13: Santos vs. Teixeira on 11/07/20. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
After some re-scheduling and fight-shuffling during a few of the past UFC events, we're arriving in Vegas this weekend with a Santos/Teixeira headline that was expected to be different... but COVID-reasons. Alas, here we are watching these two finally after their bout was pushed back forever. With these two healthy, the promo stays in-house holding another night of fights in Nevada. Get accustomed to the APEX, because it will be the place of choice for a few more weekends.
There is no belt on the line this Saturday, but you bet this will most probably bring the fireworks to town. We already know who will be headlining (Santos is the LH no. 1 contender and Teixeira is currently no. 3), and to those two we have to add unranked-yet-marvelous HW in Arlovski and Boser, and some lower-ranked or out-of-ranks fighters such as Ian Heinisch, and top-contender (no. 4) for the Women's SW belt Claudia Gadelha kicking the main card off.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC Vegas 13: Santos vs. Teixeira on 11/07/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
Featured Promo! Save 50% on any PGA Premium Pass using discount code MASTERS, this week only! Win more with our DFS and Betting Packages, get expert tools and advice from proven winners including the Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, betting/props cheat sheet and more. GAIN FULL ACCESS HERE
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Thiago Santos, $8800 - vs. Glover Teixeira
No champions involved in this fight, but oh boy are these two a couple of highly-touted veterans. Both Santos and Teixeira had their chances at lifting the gold, but both dropped them... against the very same Jon Jones... five years apart! No joke!
Teixeira faced Jones in 2014 and although he lasted 25 minutes inside the Octagon, he ultimately lost a decision. Santos saw the same outcome go his way in his last fight, which happened in July 2019 against still-champ Jones. Cold world, folks.
While Santos dropped that last bout, he was on a four-fight winning streak prior to that, same as Teixeira. Both guys have found their mojo back lately, although Santos comes with a much better/tougher resume during the last few months compared to Glover's. I'd go with the striker in Santos over the do-it-all, mostly-grappler Teixeira on this one.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight- UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Tanner Boser, $8900 - vs. Andrei Arlovski
Man, we are going to be this close to watching a pre-2000 fighter inside the Octagon this weekend. Ugh. Arlovski debuted in UFC 28 all the way back in November 2000. That's insane. He's fought 32 times for the promotion and that is just eight times the number of bouts in Boser's fight log. Seriously, insane in the brain.
Boser has looked dominant in his four fights. He's 3-1 (won his last two via KOs inside the first two rounds) and he's only lost one to Ciryl Gane via decisions. Arlovski, on the other hand, is already on his way down. He won his last fight in May, but prior to that and going back to the start of 2016 he's 4-9-1. He's become a 15-minute, full-time fighter these days although that's helped him pump up his striking volume a ton.
Neither Arlovski nor Boser is too active on the takedown game (Arlovski has attempted none since mid-2019, and Boser has attempted all of zero TDs in his UFC career). Arlovski can eat punches for breakfast and stay up. Sadly for him, Boser has already inflicted two KOs up and running. That makes Boser a higher ceiling/lower floor bet, but I'd lean toward The Bos(er)s.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ian Heinisch, $7800 - vs. Brendan Allen
One of the closer fights of the whole event, if not the closest. Both Allen and Heinisch enter this bout with 54 and 51 percent winning chances, and their money lines are at -115 and -106 respectively at this point. Makes sense, considering these two are 15-3 and 14-3 career fighters, average pretty much the same DKFP per contests, and once getting the UFC they are 3-0 and 3-2 in their runs, both winning their latest bouts.
Allen's 3-0 is pretty perfect. He's won in all possible ways, via decision, KO, and submissions, that is. Heinisch went to a decision in all of his first four fights, but in his latest one this past June he dropped Gerald Meerschaert cold with a KO inside the first round. Don't let that fool you, though, as one of Heinisch's true edges comes from his grappling, attempting more than 5 TD per fight while landing at least one on average.
No one is saying Allen is the dog here, far from it, but I'd go with Heinisch and a second consecutive win here rather than Allen reaching the 4-0 and keeping his record intact. It's time to bring Brendan a little bit back to Earth.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Raoni Barcelos, $9100 - vs. Khalid Taha
Watch out for an early finish here. You better keep your eyes open and your Twitter feed out of your sight while this fight lasts because odds are we see either a Submission or a KO coming from one of these two men. Raoni and Khalid are a combined 5-1 in their UFC careers, with Taha losing his first one but winning his last two, and Barcelos sitting a perfect 3-0 so far.
Taha was overwhelmed in his loss, in which he could only land 32 of 57 SS in 15 minutes, but he bounced back with a 25-second KO and then went on to defeat Bruno Silva submitting him in the third round. Barcelos has shown both striking (two KOs) and grappling (9 TD attempts, 5 landed) prowess, and his clean record speaks volume of the start to his UFC career.
Barcelos enters this fight with a higher floor, extra-DKFP taken into account or not. His ceiling has also been higher than Taha's so far, and I'm going with the favorite (who is so by a mile, truth be told) for this one.
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight- UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Claudia Gadelha, $7900 - vs. Yan Xiaonan
This fight looks great on paper and it will most probably bring fantasy points in bunches. Between Gadelha and Xiaonan, both fighters have participated in 15 fights and 14 of those have gone the distance. Only Gadelha was able (all the way back in 2017) to finish her opponent early (submission) once. That's it, that's all of the times it's happened.
Both Gadelha and Yan have shown skills at both striking and grappling. Neither of them is shy of going for the takedown, with Gadelha being 7-for-20 in TD since 2018 and Yan 6-for-8 in that same span and number of fights (four).
This bout pits the no. 4 and no. 8 contenders, with Gadelha currently ranked 13th in the Women's P4P leaderboard. That has to account for something, am I right? While Yan doubles Claudia in SS-volume, Gadelha edges her foe in the TD side of the game and the landing rate of strikes. Give me Gadelha's overall game over a 15-minute fight here, getting that W via decision and solidifying herself as a true top-tier contender.
