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The top daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on December 23, 2023. Kyle Ringstad provides NBA DFS analysis and sleeper picks for building optimal DFS rosters.
It's a beautiful Saturday and we have a monster 11-game NBA slate on tap before the Christmas slates get underway. The Magic-Pacers, Spurs-Mavericks, and Grizzlies-Hawks games all profile as top contests to target in daily fantasy, but there are plenty of great spots to pick and choose your plays.
As always, injuries are a key factor here and we will need to monitor for news and make adjustments as we learn more. The key players to monitor are Luka Doncic, Anthony Davis, Tyrese Haliburton, LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Zion Williamson, Jordan Clarkson, Talen Horton-Tucker, Keldon Johnson, Jalen Duren, and Dante Exum.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 12/23/23. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our awesome new NBA injuries report tool, as the slate can completely change before lineups lock at 7:00 pm EST.
I start my process with a "K-Grade" model shown below, which I've been fine-tuning for about three years. This model takes real metrics like the implied total, fantasy points per game allowed, defensive ratings, offensive ratings, and projected pace, and applies them to a model with weights. It should be used as a directional guide for the slate and I've had plenty of success with it, but stick to your process and DFS best practices. For example, a player on a team with a "D" K-Grade could easily be the top value on the slate due to a significant uptick in minutes and usage rate.
DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Luka Doncic, DAL vs. SAS – PG ($11,700 DK; $12,500 FD)
Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks are in the premier spot of the night, so we should probably be playing the star point guard in daily fantasy lineups. The matchup and game environment can't get much better - the Magic-Pacers contest holds a slightly higher total and faster-projected pace, but the Mavericks-Spurs showdown features the two defenses that allow the most combined fantasy points per game on the slate. The Spurs allow the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing teams and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to point guards, specifically. As long as Doncic plays and Kyrie Irving remains out, this is as guaranteed a "smash spot" as you'll see all month.
Craig Porter Jr., CLE v. CHI - PG ($5,700 DK; $5,400 FD)
Someone has to play guard for the Cavaliers, right? Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Ty Jerome are all out tonight, leaving Caris LeVert, Max Strus, Craig Porter Jr., and a questionable Sam Merill as the group of guards left on the roster. LeVert and Strus are expensive, so Porter Jr. is the call here. He holds the highest DK point differential with Mitchell, Garland, Jerome, and Evan Mobley off the floor, as they will be tonight. The game environment is poor, but we have to find value somewhere and Porter Jr. is lined up to provide it tonight.
Others to consider: Trae Young, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anfernee Simons, Ja Morant
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Derrick Jones Jr., DAL vs. SAS - SF ($5,900 DK, $5,800 FD)
There's a lot of uncertainty about the Mavericks' roster for tonight's game, with Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Dante Exum, Dereck Lively II, and Josh Green all questionable to play. Derrick Jones Jr. doesn't have a designation, though, and I want any under-rostered pieces of this Dallas team that I can reasonably get to. Jones Jr. has had some great games when thrust into additional minutes this season. He's volatile, but we have to embrace volatility in daily fantasy if we want a shot at binking a tournament. Keep an eye on the news and adjust accordingly.
Jalen Williams, OKC vs. LAL, SF/PF ($6,400 DK, $6,700 FD)
Jalen Williams is one of the biggest beneficiaries of Josh Giddey being out of the lineup. The young forward gets a 4.4% usage rate bump and 4-point DK points per game increase with Giddey off the floor this season - only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sees higher increases in the split. Williams should also benefit from playing the Lakers, a team that's allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing teams over their last seven games.
Others to consider: Scottie Barnes, Desmond Bane, Paolo Banchero, Pascal Siakam, Mikal Bridges, Dante Exum
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. CHA - C ($11,300 DK; $12,200 FD)
There are a ton of star players to consider anchoring lineups with at the top tonight, but none of them look better than Nikola Jokic (at least on DraftKings). Jokic's salary dropped considerably following a few uncharacteristic games, but it's at a point now where he only needs 56.5 DK points to hit 5x value. He's averaging 61.7 DK points per game this season and has scored over 64 DK points in three of his last five games. Charlotte does not have the horses to slow him down as they're allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing Cs this season.
Others to consider: Chet Holmgren, Anthony Davis, Victor Wembanyama
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