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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on September 4, 2023. Casey Wilson's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Labor Day, everyone. We're back at it on a Monday after a great weekend of baseball. What better way to enjoy a holiday than a full day of baseball? With the playoff race heating up, we are in for a heck of a final stretch of the season. We have entered the territory of DFS with football approaching. The casual MLB fan is no longer playing lineups daily. We get a holiday day slate today. If you haven't been paying attention to the MLB daily we have at RotoBaller, no worries, I have you covered.
I will cover the seven-game slate starting at 2:10 p.m. in this article. We have another Cole Ragans day. This guy is the truth for those who haven't been staying up to date, and DraftKings refuses to price him correctly. We have two other arms in elite spots to pair with Ragans. We have five stacks today that I love. The Astros face a home run-prone lefty, and the red-hot Mariners bats head to Great American Ball Park. Let's get to picking some winners.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 9/4/2023 and the slate locking at 2:10 p.m. ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
I have decided to post my charts throughout the article that I have been using for DFS. I want to quickly explain the color coding and bolding so you can understand better. That is an elite play if you see bold capital letters and green. Bold letters with green are a great play. Bold letters with yellow is a good play. Bold letters with white are to be used to round out lineups. Letters that are not bold are to be used in MME only for player pools or to round out stacks in a single entry.
Cole Ragans, KC vs. CWS ($7,200 DK, $9,000 FD)
DraftKings, you ok, bro? What in the world is going on? Cole Ragans once again does not get a price bump on DraftKings and immediately becomes the chalk of the slate. Ragans has been elite since entering the starting rotation. In August, Ragans made six starts. He had a 3-1 record during that span with a 2.65 SIERA, 36.6% K%, 15.2% SwStr%, 47.0% GB%, 1.06 WHIP, and a 1.72 ERA. For comparison, in August, Spencer Strider had a 3.45 SIERA, 32.4% K%, 19.8% SwStr%, 40.7% GB%, 0.94 WHIP, and a 2.97 ERA. Cole Ragans is $7,200.
Ragans will square off against the Chicago White Sox today. Since the break, the Sox have an 88 wRC+, .300 wOBA, .404 SLG, and a 26.9% K% against left-handed pitching. Luis Robert Jr. was also scratched late yesterday, so I expect him to be on the shelf tonight as well. The matchup for Ragans is elite. The form for Ragans is elite. The price for Ragans is elite. I can't give you one good reason not to play him. So play him.
Justin Steele, CHC vs. SF ($10,000 DK, $10,600 FD)
Justin Steele is the next southpaw we will target on this afternoon's main slate. Steele has been in outstanding form over his last six starts. He owns a 4-0 record with a 3.35 SIERA, 27.5% K%, 11.4% SwStr%, 1.37 WHIP, 42.4% GB%, and a 3.41 ERA. He has six or more strikeouts in every start he has had in August and has a quality start in four of those six starts. I still prefer Ragans over Steele tonight without even factoring in the price. But because of Ragan's price on DraftKings, we will have some salary to pay up for the floor of Steele.
For a traditional day game, Steele will toe the rubber against the San Francisco Giants in Wrigley Field. The Giants in August have been average against left-handed pitching. They own a 104 wRC+, .319 wOBA, and a .426 SLG. The intriguing thing about this matchup is this team's strikeout rate this month. They are striking out at a 28.2% clip, the second-worst in the month. Behind guess who? The Chicago White Sox, Cole Ragan's opponent. I love this pairing tonight, and I can assure you we will not be the only ones.
Also consider: Merrill Kelly, Bryan Woo, Jose Berrios
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Jeremy Pena- SS, HOU vs. Andrew Heaney ($4,100 DK, $2,700 FD)
The Astros are in a great spot tonight against Andrew Heaney. Since the start of August, they have led the big leagues with a 170 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Jeremy Pena has been their best bat in the month against lefties. He owns a 230 wRC+, .504 wOBA, and a .667 SLG. Heaney has always struggled with the long ball. On the season, he has surrendered 22 home runs. Over the last 30 days, he has given up a .352 wOBA, .209 ISO, and a 46.0% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters.
Davis Schneider - 2B/3B, TOR vs. Ken Waldichuk ($4,600 DK, $3,900 FD)
What a rookie season Davis Schneider is having since his call-up to the big leagues. He is hitting .397 on the season, with six HRs and 17 RBIs. His 1.379 OPS is the highest by any player over his first 15 games in the modern era. He squares off against lefty Ken Waldichuk. Over the last 30 days, he owns a .357 wOBA, .247 ISO, and a 60.0% hard-hit rate. Schneider, on the season against southpaws, is elite. He has a 304 wRC+, .610 wOBA, and 1.040 SLG. The Blue Jays are a top stack tonight and Schneider is the top bat.
Gabriel Moreno - C, ARZ vs. Peter Lambert ($2,700 DK, $2,300 FD)
Gabriel Moreno is my favorite value play on both sites. He gets a matchup this afternoon with righty Peter Lambert and the Colorado Rockies. Over the last 30 days, Lambert has a .382 wOBA, .242 ISO, and a 54.8% hard-hit rate. Moreno has been mashing right-handed pitching all season. In August, Moreno had a 226 wRC+, .507 wOBA, and a .778 SLG against right-handed pitching. He is too cheap for that kind of production.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Chas McCormick - OF, HOU vs. Andrew Heaney ($4,700 DK, $3,500 FD)
Chas McCormick has been elite against left-handed pitching all season. On the year, he owns a 198 wRC+, .455 wOBA, and a .663 SLG against the split. Since the break, he has been even better. He holds a 260 wRC+, .547 wOBA, and a .808 SLG. McCormick is one of five righties in this Astros lineup with a 200 wRC+ or higher in August. Andrew Heaney, as stated earlier, struggles against righties.
Josh Lowe - OF, TB vs. Brayan Bello ($4,500 DK, $3,300 FD)
Josh Lowe and the Tampa Bay Rays host the Boston Red Sox in game one of their three-game set. The Rays make for a sneaky stack this afternoon. They are third in August with a 132 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Brayan Bello has been hit by lefties all season. He owns a .365 wOBA, .209 ISO, and a 40.9% hard-hit rate against the split this season. Over his last 30 days, he holds a .425 wOBA, .188 ISO, and a 40.9% hard-hit rate. Over his previous 40 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Lowe owns a 232 wRC+, .500 wOBA, and a .757 SLG.
Teoscar Hernandez - OF, SEA vs. Tejay Antone ($4,600 DK, $3,200 FD)
Teoscar Hernandez will square off against opener Tejay Antone and the Reds bullpen in Great American Ball Park. The long reliever for the Reds has yet to be announced, but does it matter with Hernandez? This dude is the hottest hitter on the planet. Over his last 80 plate appearances, Hernandez owns a 227 wRC+, a .494 wOBA, and a .776 SLG.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Houston Astros vs. Andrew Heaney
Favorite Plays: Jose Altuve, Chas McCormick, Jeremy Pena, Martin Maldonado, Jose Abreu, Alex Bregman
2. Toronto Blue Jays vs. Ken Waldichuk
Favorite Plays: Davis Schneider, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Whit Merrifield, Ernie Clement, Santiago Espinal
3. Seattle Mariners vs. Tejay Antone
Favorite Plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Julio Rodriguez, J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh, Dominic Canzone
4. Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Peter Lambert
Favorite Plays: Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno, Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
5. Tampa Bay Rays vs. Brayan Bello
Favorite Plays: Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Jonathan Aranda
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