RADIO
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Waste Management Phoenix Open on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model.
Thanks again for all the support, and don't miss out on all our top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles produced by the entire RotoBaller squad.
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Waste Management Phoenix Open
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure also to check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard. This powerful and interactive data spreadsheet allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you must make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
TPC Scottsdale
7,266 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded) - Not True Bermuda
Measuring in as a 7,266-yard Par 71 with over 1500-feet of elevation, TPC Scottsdale was initially designed by Jay Morrish and Tom Weiskopf in 1986 to serve as the yearly stage for the event but has grown over the years into something nobody could have seen coming because of its sheer circus-like atmosphere. It is hard to explain for anyone new to the sport and experiencing the tournament for the first time what the week looks like from a visual perspective, but imagine a costume-themed frat party that has gone horribly wrong and ended up drunkenly finding its way to the 16th green at TPC Scottsdale.
I realize that might sound like a lousy storyline to a movie, but I promise it gets more menacing once everyone has made their way inside the manufactured arena to participate in a giant spectacle where the golfers are on display as gladiators inside a Roman Colosseum. Failure to produce will get you jeered. Mediocrity booed. And excellence, well, excellence is maniacally celebrated like the scene in the movie Gladiator where Russell Crowe's character asks the audience, "are you not entertained?" The people are there for a show, and anything less than a standing-ovation performance will cause them to become uncivilized.
It is worth noting that the greens throughout the entire facility will speed up as the week goes on to enhance the difficulty. That factor, combined with the enormous 7,100-square-foot greens, can turn this track into a quick test both on and off the putting surface since elevation and rollout help provide a 12-yard increase in driving distance compared to an average tour stop, and while we only get three par-fives for the week, they have proven to be vital to finding success. All feature a birdie or better percentage over 40 percent, resulting in over a 2.5% percent eagle rate. That is about as high as you will see on tour yearly and makes aggression something that can be looked at when building a model.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | TPC Scottsdale | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 294 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 59% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 67% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 59% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.53 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
- Course-Specific Tee-To-Green (22.5%) - Because the greens are large and quick, putting has become neutralized over the years at this track. Many metrics this week will point in the direction of tee-to-green being a measurable statistic worth considering, but I never love the generic blueprint of those numbers because it doesn't identify course-specific needs. Instead, I went through the pertinent data at this venue over the past 10 years and looked at how strokes gained in areas such as off the tee, approach and around the green have impacted this tournament and then recalculated the numbers to mimic TPC Scottsdale over the inundated tee-to-green averages.
- Strokes Gained Total TPC Properties (7.5%) - It is a tricky situation on what to do with the array of TPC venues this week. Typically, we can add this weight onto any TPC track because they all emulate one another, but Scottsdale doesn't entirely fall into the same category because of its unique structure. With all that being said, we have seen the rollover of course history rank as consistently here as anywhere that isn't Augusta, which generally means there are underlying qualities that players can use to their advantage. I don't think it hurts that my model picked up parallels between how golfers have performed at TPC tracks and Scottsdale to solidify the mathematical value of this being attached a weight, even if my eye test is pushing me to think otherwise.
- Weighted Fast Greens (10%) -I don't want to get caught up in adding too much of this into the fray since putting can sometimes be offset for the reasons I mentioned earlier, but I love redistributing the strokes gained metrics to feature marginally more putting when it becomes applicable. Ninety percent of my weight went into strokes gained total on fast greens. The final 10 percent incorporated putting on a quicker surface, making it a recalculated ball-striking statistic that adds an extra semblance on the flat stick.
- Weighted Par-Four (12.5%) - We get 4.8% more second shots between 125-200 yards than an average tour stop. Those proximity buckets can be challenging to measure because some of the data is faulty when you try to condense numbers to fit a generic range, but there are always ways to get unique in quantifying the information. The most arduous scoring holes come at your four par-fours that stretch over 450 yards. On the surface, that should tell us that mid-to-long iron play will be needed to protect your total when you get to those stops, and rather than trying to pack the data into individual categories, I took 30% of my remodified proximity total that mimics Scottsdales layout and added in 60% of scoring between 450-500 yards and 10% bogey avoidance to come up with a new number that should tell me what players will find success when given the critical distances needed.
- Par-Five Birdie or Better (17.5%) - We lose one par-five over a standard Par 72 layout, but scoring at these three chances has been nearly as impactful as combining the other 15 holes into one range. All three have over a 40% birdie or better percentage and will need to be taken advantage of if you want to find your name on the first page of the leaderboard.
- Going For the Green (10%) - I love measuring aggression this week for two main reasons. For starters, all the par-fives have over a two percent eagle rate. That is about as high as you will see for a PGA Tour course. But perhaps more importantly, the risk-reward par-four 17th amplifies the notion that we need an all-out attack mindset. Golfers will need to traverse water on the left side of the green, but both eagle and bogey are in play for those that take on the risk. If more significant numbers were finding their way onto scorecards, aggression might not be as critical, but the way I see it is that the 17th presents an upside for eagle if you are willing to risk making bogey. I always try to find value as a bettor, and this is golf's version of finding a mathematical advantage. Going for the green will give you a better chance to win.
- Total Driving (20%) - That is a 65/35 percent split of distance over accuracy. The length will help create easier scoring chances, and the accuracy avoids the desert where cactuses and other pitfalls loom for those that miss the fairway. Total driving has been one of the top corollary statistics for me over the past four years of running a model for this event.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
Jon Rahm ($11,600) - I am not sure DraftKings can eliminate these chalk-filled Jon Rahm weeks until he is moved to over $12,000 in salary. It has reached a point where Rahm's safety is such a cushion that most users are penciling him in to start their builds because of the security he provides, causing gamers to be required to make a massive decision at the very start of their construction. I believe there is enough value to be found below Rahm that we can attempt to leverage some of the ownership to get unique in our GPP builds, but that answer is solely predicated on game theory and not a belief that the top-ranked golfer in the world could struggle. Rahm has provided 26 top-34 finishes over his last 28 PGA tournaments, and that doesn't even take into account his withdrawal at the Memorial - an event he ended Saturday in first-place before being forced to retire because of COVID-19. The top-ranked golfer in the world has never finished worse than 16th at TPC Scottsdale in six attempts, and it is hard to envision a scenario where he doesn't get himself on the first few pages of the leaderboard in 2022.
Patrick Cantlay ($10,700) - The industry can be fickle when it comes to views around a player. I realize it was a much lighter field in terms of strength when trying to compare the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to the Waste Management Phonix Open, but Patrick Cantlay stretched to nearly 40 percent in popularity during some contests last weekend before a disastrous Sunday (by Cantlay's standards) took what many perceived to be his title to win and dropped him to a fourth-place outing. I understand that we needed a victory out of the fourth-ranked golfer in the world to reap the benefits from his $11,200 salary cost, but was his finish any different than the final round performances we have gotten out of Jon Rahm over the past few months? If your answer to that question is no, you have to take a deeper dive into why the American is entering the week as one of the contrarian choices on the board. Cantlay has provided 27 consecutive rounds of shooting par or better - the second-best total in this field behind Rahm - and he ranks inside the top-30 in all metrics I ran to mimic the track. Justin Thomas ($11,000) will be where most users attempt to pivot if they get away from the Spaniard, but it could be Cantlay that provides the true leverage advantage if his totals remain steady.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,400) - There are rumors that Hideki Matsuyama was dealing with a minor left leg injury during his 30th-place result at Torrey Pines two weeks ago. That is something worth monitoring as the week progresses, especially after Daniel Berger pulled out just before the start of Pebble Beach, but the hesitation around him might be enough to get an ownership discount when all is said and done. Matsuyama has averaged 5.1 shots tee-to-green over his past six starts on tour, and those numbers somehow pale in comparison to the onslaught he has supplied at just TPC Scottsdale during his career. In seven previous trips to the venue, the reigning Masters champion has averaged 9.82 strokes tee-to-green, accounting for two victories to go along with two top-four finishes.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushing out of the gate in 2022!
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Xander Schauffele ($9,700) - There have only been a few times that I have left a golf tournament completely stunned that my outright ticket didn't get across the finish line. Golf isn't the same as many other sports where you can easily model game script and narrow down likely production into a much more condensed expectation range. Unfortunately, there is volatility and inconsistency in golf that no matter how many times you run the data, something you didn't anticipate happening seems to creep into the mix. And I say all of that before getting into Xander Schauffele this week because last year's second-place showing at TPC Scottsdale still isn't something I have gotten over. I am not sure I have ever seen a top-tier golfer play better over the first three days of an event and fail to finish in the fashion Schauffele did in 2021. It took ridiculous eagle hole-outs from the eventual winner Brooks Koepka mixed with a faulty closing stretch from Schauffele to equal the perfect storm of the head-scratching result it became. Xander once again enters the fight this year as a golfer that my model views as one of the top values on the board, as he ranks inside the top-10 in aggression, par-five scoring, weighted par-four scoring and total driving. If he can bring that skill set to Arizona again, perhaps he can change the result that plagued him a season ago.
Other Options: Scottie Scheffler $9,100, Bubba Watson $9,000
$8,000 Range
Louis Oosthuizen ($8,800) - It is the only time Louis Oosthuizen didn't play the Farmers Insurance before the Waste Management Open in his career, meaning it will be the first time we have seen him in action since withdrawing from the RSM Classic in November. The lack of competitive golf is less than ideal for a player who was one of the hottest golfers on tour in 2021, but there are enough positives we can take away from this when looking at Oosthuizen's statistical pedigree to warrant real consideration. The South African has finished inside the top-11 during both of his prior attempts since 2017 and grades inside the top-five in both total driving and strokes gained on fast greens.
Other Options: Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,700
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Luke List ($7,700) - Ownership seems to be in agreement with that notion, but Luke List is bringing form and course history to the table.
- Most Upside: Abraham Ancer ($7,900) - I always love the idea of playing Abraham Ancer when he drops into this $7,000 range. Ancer ranks inside the top five on TPC properties and putting on fast greens.
- Favorite GPP Play: Cam Davis ($7,200) - The Aussie is one of the most aggressive golfers on tour. That mentality should help him to find success.
- Fade: Andrew Putnam ($7,500)
- Most Likely Winner: Abraham Ancer ($7,900)
Other Options: Billy Horschel $7,900, Harold Varner III $7,800, Max Homa $7,600, K.H. Lee $7,300, Brian Harman $7,300,
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
- Lucas Glover $6,900
- Martin Laird $6,800
- Stewart Cink $6,800
- Sahith Theegala $6,700
- Matthew NeSmith $6,600
- Garrick Higgo $6,600
- Matt Wallace $6,500
- James Hahn $6,200
- Austin Eckroat $6,200
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
