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Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the RBC Canadian Open on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - RBC Canadian Open
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
St. George's Golf & Country Club
7,046 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bentgrass
Back on the PGA Tour for the first time since 2010, St. George's Golf & Country Club is a short Par 70 on paper but might have more to the layout than meets the eye when you dive deeper into the numbers.
At first glance, the 7,046-yard measurement might make you initially think of a distance-reduced venue that could highlight short iron proximity, but I am not sure that is the case with a ton of hidden yardage coming into play. The property will yield three par-fives, four of which take place from over 200 yards, and while that immediately gives us a reconfigured venue that starts to pinpoint more long iron proximity than one might have originally expected, it is the seven par fours between 446-486 yards that really starts to give us the brunt of the invisible proportions that will be felt by those playing the course.
From a construction perspective, Tom Doak rebuilt these smaller-than-average greens in 2014, and the tight, tree-lined nature of the fairways should have a pronounced impact on finding the short grass off the tee. Add those factors to the undulation and heavy-bunkering of the greens, and you get this test that diminishes GIR percentage while also adding in a heightened need for scrambling and short game metrics to find success.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | St. George's | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | N/A | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | N/A | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | N/A | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | N/A | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
- Weighted Strokes Gained Tee To Green (30%)
- Strokes Gained Total Under 7,200 Yards (10%)
- Strokes Gained Total Bent (10%)
- Weighted Par-Three (7.5%)
- Weighted Par-Four (12.5%)
- Weighted Par-Five (15%)
- Miscellaneous Scoring (15%)
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are six players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Welcome to what I consider to be the dreaded DraftKings slate, where there are limited pricing irregularities and a handful of high-end production totals from the golfers you would expect to shine. I've mentioned this situation in the past about how it creates a reduced selection of options to consider for both DFS and betting, but is there a way for us to maneuver through the DFS slate strategically - all while trying to take advantage of this challenging board that is propelling us into a lot of the same players as other users? To condense the answer to something that isn't so long-winded, yes. But it will take some calculated outside-the-box alternatives if we want to get different from the masses.
None of that suggests the need to pivot away from any specific player, but you can see how lineups quickly get pushed into the same range repeatedly if we don't make a concerted effort to force ourselves into different builds. The group of Scottie Scheffler ($11,100), Justin Thomas ($10,900), Rory McIlroy ($10,500), Cameron Smith ($10,300), Shane Lowry ($10,100) and Sam Burns ($10,000) are all ranked inside the top-seven of my upside model, meaning not only do their statistical totals have them in the correct tier, but the ownership will likely be worth the price of admission since we do have heightened win equity from the group over what we typically get during a standard week. My most significant piece of advice would be that if you go with one or two of the chalkier selections here, you might want to get marginally different elsewhere, but outside of me being a little lower on Sam Burns than the rest of the public, I don't have any issues starting with whoever you like in the $10,000 section and working your way down from there.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
The trend continues in the $9,000 zone, as all 15 players we have looked into so far are ranked inside the top-16 of my model. The lone name missing is Justin Rose ($8,800) - who just missed the section himself, but let's continue to see where ownership goes over the next few days. I am more inclined to take leverage discounts if something does present itself, but as of Monday afternoon, Harold Varner III ($9,700), Tyrrell Hatton ($9,500) and Tony Finau ($9,400) are the more intriguing options because of their slight bargains in ownership versus rank.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
Justin Rose ($8,800) rolls into the week off a missed cut during his last appearance at the Charles Schwab, but it is giving us a disregarded popularity total since gamers seem to be flocking to other areas of the board. In my opinion, this is one of the first outside-the-box leverage spots that we can create against the field, and we see the upside show itself with his 12th-place mark for weighted tee-to-green - a total that is 45 spots better than his expected output at a random track.
Moving down the board a few places to Mackenzie Hughes ($8,400), you could argue that the price tag might be higher than you would care to see, but the 3.8% early ownership total provides us with the third-best leverage amount we have seen so far. Hughes ranks third in this field for Bentgrass putting and is also 10th when performing on courses under 7,200 yards.
And then we get ourselves to the popular choice in C.T. Pan ($8,100), a player who is inside the top-40 for every metric I looked into this week. Pan's six made cuts in a row give us the eighth-best return in this field, and he has produced nine consecutive rounds of gaining strokes with his irons, averaging 2.6 shots over his competitors per start.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
These are all the golfers in the $7,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-65 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership from overall or upside.
I will continue to trim this group down throughout the week, but the options get thin very quickly in the $7,000 range. With that being said, all the choices above are on my shortlist before I make more cuts.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
We are still early in the week. I will continue to run numbers as more ownership comes in for these $6,000 golfers.
These are all the golfers in the $6,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-65 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership.
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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