Was Drafting Kareem Hunt Good Process or Just Lucky?

March 30, 2018

Was selecting Kansas City Chiefs running back (RB) Kareem Hunt a sign of a smart fantasy owner's draft process or simply good luck? Taylor Maxston investigates.

The 2017 regular season featured several rookie running backs making immediate and fantasy relevant impacts on the teams that drafted them. Four rookie running backs recorded top 15 finishes in standard scoring and top 10 finishes in PPR formats, making it clear that this season was one for rushers to challenge the previous fantasy narrative favoring the rise of the wide receiver. Any fantasy owners who managed to land one of these players was extremely happy to have had their contributions on their team, but was this year an indication of future prosperity or just an anomaly?

In this series, I will be taking a look at a running back from the 2017 NFL Draft class and analyzing whether fantasy owners should expect him to repeat on his early success for his sophomore season.

Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt was a third round pick out of the University of Toledo when he broke onto the scene. In his rookie campaign, Hunt ran for 1,327 yards on 272 carries on route to earning the league rushing title. If that weren't enough, Hunt’s 1,782 yards from scrimmage ranked third in the league. The key question for the upcoming fantasy season is whether Hunt can continue to prosper when he comes back to a reformed Kansas City Chiefs squad. Let's dive in!

The Physical Tools

Don't get too mad when I say this Kansas City Chiefs fans, but Hunt boasts a largely unremarkable athletic skill-set. His SPARQ score, an overall metric used to assess NFL player's collective physical talents, falls in the below average 20th percentile (out of 100). It is clear from his game film that his average explosiveness traits can allow him to elude initial tackles, but also sometimes limit his ability to accelerate after redirecting his feet.

That being said, Hunt dominated in two key areas that will no doubt continue to help him prosper in 2018: vision and elusiveness. According to Pro Football Focus, Hunt led the NFL in forced missed tackles with 61 and yards after contact with 839, an average of 3.1 yards. His compact body and muscular legs allow him to be patient in identifying gaps in opposing defenses' front sevens and hit run lanes hard for chunk gains. In a series of red zone plays against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2, it was easy to see Hunt's shiftiness and ability to put his head down to fight for extra yardage. Kansas City will no doubt continue to use outside tosses and screen plays to make use of Hunt's ability to turn the corner and generate extra yardage.

Bottom Line: Kareem Hunt makes up for his unremarkable physical gifts with a running style that displays a combination of pure instinct and elusiveness. A full NFL offseason will help him prosper even more given time to develop the nuances of his game.

Consistency of Production

Many fantasy owners expected the Kansas City Chiefs backfield rotation to operate as a three man committee with Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West eating into Hunt's workload. However, with Ware suffering PCL and LCL tears in his right knee during the preseason, it became Hunt's backfield to lose. Given that opportunity, Hunt never took his foot off the gas in handling an absurd 72-percent of the Chiefs' rushing workload. In addition, his 65 receptions tied for the third-most on the team and no doubt made PPR owners quite happy.

Unfortunately, there were times in 2017 that head coach Andy Reid severely under-utilized Hunt’s prolific talents and fantasy owners felt the sting. Hunt carried the ball less than 15 times in six games (vs. Eagles, Steelers, Cowboys, Bills, Jets, and Broncos). In those six games, he carried the ball a combined 52 times for 231 yards and averaged 12.4 fantasy points in standard formats. Kansas City went 2-4 across those six games, leaving little doubt that the Chiefs’ success revolved around Hunt’s production. In the other 10 matchups, Hunt averaged 109.6 yards per game, 22 carries per game, and 22 fantasy points per game. Part of the misuse can be attributed to the stellar play of quarterback Alex Smith and the Chiefs choosing to pass on 58-percent of their plays, but there should be real concerns about Andy Reid's unpredictability in play calling.

Bottom Line: With Spencer Ware returning from his season ending injury and Andy Reid's coaching staff not feeding Hunt like they probably should have in some instances, there are definitely risks associated with playing Kareem Hunt on a weekly basis next season. 

Team Reform

The Kansas City Chiefs have experienced a fair amount of turnover in the 2018 offseason after shipping quarterback Alex Smith to the Washington Redskins and losing wide receiver Albert Wilson to the Miami Dolphins via free agency. Should there be any concerns about a reformed Chiefs offense and Hunt's ability to build off his historic rookie season?

Put simply, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about how Kansas City's reformed roster can benefit Hunt. With sophomore quarterback Patrick Mahomes II set to be the man under center, it would not be surprising to see Hunt’s numbers on the ground become more steady in year two. Although Mahomes has a gunslinger's arm and confidence, he is largely inexperienced when it comes to NFL in-game action. Hunt will no doubt be relied upon as the headliner of a strong rushing attack to open up the passing game and take pressure off of his quarterback.

Verdict: Lucky or Good?

Hunt is a three down back that fits the exact dimensions of an ideal workhorse for Kansas City's offense much like Jamaal Charles from 2008 to 2016. While he may not be as physically gifted as Charles was in his prime, it would be shocking to see a talent like Hunt be held back by a committee or the Chiefs offensive turnover this offseason. I would value Hunt in fantasy football as a mid-second to early third round player with immense upside should he be handed the reigns without competition at the running back position. In short, he is good.

More NFL ADP Analysis