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Matt's wide receiver (WR) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 1 of 2024. His WR lineups advice for Week 1 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Welcome back. Fantasy football has awakened from its 8-month hibernation, and I hope everyone has given their families their two weeks' notice now that football season is back.
That said, Rotoballer has you covered for the next 4-5 months, breaking down which players you need to start and which players need to be on your bench every week to give you that edge over your opponents. With week one officially here, let's clear one thing up and start your studs (or do you).
Strange things happen in week one every year, so let's not get too cute; there will be plenty of time to do that later. Now that we have that out of the way, here are some other receivers you should start to kickstart your championship campaign and players you need to temper expectations on, even if they are studs.
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Fantasy Football Start 'Em Picks for Week 1
Chris Godwin - WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders
When you are facing a defense that allowed 42.72 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers a season ago and made very few improvements, you smash that. Chris Godwin will be working out of the slot, and Mike Evans needs to be in the week-one lineup.
Now Godwin, working out of the slot, has been hyped all offseason. Washington allowed slot receivers more than 14 fantasy points per game in 2023. Considering Godwin is likely your fourth or fifth option, he stands to be a flex play this week, which will pay off.
Godwin's best fantasy seasons came in 2019 and 2021. In those two seasons, he finished as the wide receiver two (2019) and the wide receiver 10 (2021) while running from the slot 63.4% and 70.4% of the time, respectively.
#Bucs HC Todd Bowles on the team’s plan to play Chris Godwin more in the slot this season:
“He’s an inside guy by nature. He can play outside, but he can make a living inside doing a bunch of things for us, and we plan to let him do a lot of things that he does best.”
Bowles… pic.twitter.com/anTo3SxTuV
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 21, 2024
Fun Fact: Since 2021, Godwin has ranked 9th in the NFL in receptions. It's time we started respecting his name.
Christian Watson - WR, Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
As bad as the Commanders were, interims of fantasy points allowed to the position, the Eagles were even worse. Philadelphia allowed opposing receivers to average 42.84 fantasy points per game.
A bad man is coming to Philadelphia this weekend in Christian Watson. Since 2022, he has had more 20-plus fantasy weeks (3) than Garrett Wilson, DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman, and Drake London. Did I mention he is healthy?
Health is vital for Watson, who has had 12 touchdowns over his last 17 contests and led this Packers, receiving core in every metric, including 15 endzone targets in just nine games. Just get the ball into his hands, and he will find the end zone. Watson has 69 career receptions and 11 career carries. Those touches have resulted in 14 touchdowns or a touchdown every 5.7 touches.
Christian Watson has averaged 15.0 yards per reception over his first 2 seasons, only 13 receivers with at least 100 targets over that time frame have a higher yards per reception average.
Watson has worked on solving his hamstring issue this offseason. pic.twitter.com/4YQvLUVYJo
— Moody (@EricNMoody) August 4, 2024
Malik Nabers - WR, New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings
You don't buy a sports car and leave it locked in the garage, do you? Of course not, and if you do, we need to have a further conversation.
First, there is no competition for targets in New York; this entire passing game will be funneled through the electric rookie. Look for Daniel Jones to let it fly against a secondary that allowed the 4th most fantasy points to the wide receiver position just a season ago. Even Jones can't screw this up.
Minnesota did address its corner deficiencies with the additions of Stephon Gilmore and Shaquill Griffin. After all, with Nabers' ability to run after the catch and ability to change direction, he's a freak whose DNA is made up of DJ Moore and Garrett Wilson, and neither Vikings corner is ready for that.
Nabers could see a 25% target share in this Giants offense or greater. Only seven other receivers under 21 have earned a 20% or more significant target share. Those pass catchers were Drake London, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Mike Evans, Larry Fitzgerald, Amari Cooper, and Sammy Watkins.
With no other options in the passing game, Nabers could equal Drake London's 29% target share in his 21-year-old season.
Oh my, Malik Nabers 😳
📱: Stream #NYGvsHOU on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/DtWCdOb7Sd
— NFL (@NFL) August 17, 2024
Fantasy Football Sit 'Em Picks for Week 1
Brandon Aiyuk - WR, San Fransisco 49ers vs New York Jets
When looking at receivers to sit this week, Brandon Aiyuk is an easy target. Not only has the star receiver missed the entire training camp due to his holdout, but he faces a Jets team that allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers last season.
Jesse Morse states, "The body and the tissues need repetitions. The first weeks of the season are the highest risk for soft tissue injuries."
One main reason why expectations need to be tempered early on when discussing Aiyuk, Ja'Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb (more on Lamb shortly).
Yep, I’ve been preaching this for a couple weeks now
The body and the tissues need repetitions.
The first six weeks of the season are the highest risk for soft tissue injuries
Chase & Aiyuk are fades for me.
Lamb has been training really hard with my buddy Dr. Reef
— Jesse Morse, MD (@DrJesseMorse) August 30, 2024
If that's not enough of a red flag, how about Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter II are arguably the best trio of defensive backs in the NFL, and the 20.56 fantasy points per game they yielded only helps make their case.
DeAndre Hopkins - WR, Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears
Chicago ranked in the middle of the pack when it came to fantasy points allowed to receivers last season, but the concern is that we are expecting more Titans to be involved in this offense in 2024.
Calvin Ridley comes to Tennessee after spending a season in Jacksonville, during which he led the NFL in end zone targets. If that number transfers over eleven in the slightest, that is going to cap De'Andre Hopkin's ceiling.
Then you have the additions of Tyler Boyd and Tony Pollard, along with Chigoziem Okonkwo and Tyjae Spears, and suddenly, what looks great for the Titans doesn't look so great for fantasy football managers.
Make sure you follow that injury report leading up to kickoff. Hopkins has been dealing with a knee injury since August 1st, one in which he was expected to miss four to six weeks. If he plays in the season opener, he's likely at less than 100%.
Injury and new weapons surrounding him give me reasons to wait and see about the future Hall of Famer.
DeAndre Hopkins had his Left knee taped up yesterday.
I just rewatched his MCL injury in 2021 which required surgery - it was his Right MCL.
If this is an MCL injury, it’s at least on the opposite side than his prior surgical repair.
pic.twitter.com/jfUKXdolAs— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) August 1, 2024
Temper Expectations for Fantasy Football Week 1
CeeDee Lamb - WR, Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns
You're not sitting CeeDee Lamb; you spent a top-three pick on them, but you should temper those expectations. Lamb sat out a majority of camp before securing that bag, so there is always a risk associated with a player who misses that much time in camp. Lamb is a veteran, so he'll be ready to go, but will his hamstrings?
See the comments in Brandon Aiyuk's sit recommendation (which also applies to Ja'Marr Chase).
Genuinely starting to worry about the lack of team related training for
Ja’Marr Chase
CeeDee Lamb
Brandon AiyukThe lack of proper volume of training IMO puts them at increased risk of soft tissue injuries.
Think hamstring, quads and calf strains.
We are just under 2…
— Jesse Morse, MD (@DrJesseMorse) August 20, 2024
If that wasn't enough reason to have some concern, remember this Browns defense is led by Myles Garrett and finished with the sixth-most sacks (49), third-most interceptions (18), and held opponents to the fewest yards per game (164.7).
From a fantasy perspective, that meant opposing receivers finished with just 25.36 fantasy points per contest, the third-fewest. You have to take this risk, but you also need to be aware of it and plan accordingly with the rest of your week one lineup, perhaps by sliding some of the above starts in your lineup this week along with Lamb.
One thing Lamb does have going for him is volume. He could see 12 targets or more, even in a difficult matchup. You can't sit him, but you need to understand the risk associated with him this week.
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