Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Houston Open

November 10, 2021

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Houston Open DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Houston Open. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!

If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Houston Open

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

Memorial Park

7,432 Yards - Par 70 - Greens: Bermuda

It is an intriguing golf course for a few reasons. You get five par-threes and this heavy yardage total of over 7,400 yards for a Par-70 layout, but I wouldn’t call this a venue where distance is the leading proponent. Sure, I think that particular variable will help decide the winner, but accuracy will be just as necessary with how the property is designed. You have these large specimen oak trees that are positioned to cause issues if you are wayward off the tee, and there are weird quirks throughout, including a clamshell landing area on the par-four 10th that will create problems if you go inside of it. A ravine runs throughout a handful of holes, and while not all the misses will have water on them, there are a ton that will present a one-shot penalty.

The greens are challenging, and we always see that level of design from Tom Doak when he builds a course. Think tricky surfaces that are hard to read. The main difference here is that there isn’t as much undulation as we sometimes get from his properties, but the overall structure looks as you might expect. The track does an excellent job of featuring doglegs that move in both directions. That fact mixed with the potential for gusts means we need creativity and thought before hitting every shot, and we see that with broad areas that feature small targets.

Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, Sam Burns leads the way at 16/1 and is followed by Scottie Scheffler at 18/1, Sungjae Im at 22/1 and Tony Finau, Matthew Wolff and Cameron Smith all rounding out the top five choices.

Key Stats 

• Total Driving (57.5/42.5% Distance over Accuracy) 20%
• Courses Over 7,400 Yards 10%
• Weighted Par-Three 7.5%
• Weighted Par-Four 15%
• Weighted Par-Five 17.5%
• Around the Green + GIR 15%
• Weighted Prxomity 15%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are seven players this week priced above $10,000:

• Safest Play: Sam Burns ($11,100) - Sam Burns checks all the boxes as the top-priced golfer on the slate. I have him ranked number one for safety, and we have seen Bermuda be his best-putting surface per round by nearly 0.36 shots over Poa and Bent. If we remove his start at the Tour Championship, he has gained 6.84 strokes tee to green over his last seven tournaments.
• Most Upside: Cameron Smith($10,200) - Cameron Smith has seen one of the more significant increases from Monday to Tuesday regarding ownership and looks to be about 15% in my model. With that being said, he possesses a lot of the intangibles I am trying to find. Smith is 23-ranking spots better in proximity at this course versus an average PGA Tour stop and comes into the week ranked second in par-five birdie or better, sixth in weighted par-three scoring and sixth in strokes gained total over my long-term model.
• Favorite GPP Play: Tony Finau ($10,600) - Tony Finau was the number one ranked player from a statistical perspective. He graded inside the top-50 in all metrics, including grading top-10 in weighted proximity, around the green + GIR, weighted par-three, weighted par-four and courses over 7,400 yards.
• Fade: Matthew Wolff ($10,400) - Matthew Wolff is the lone wolf of the group with a ranking of 14th. I get that the recent form looks good on paper, but I don’t see an early enough leverage advantage available that warrants us paying the substantial price. That viewpoint could change if his popularity drops, but 13% is too higher for me at this moment
• Most Likely Winner: Cameron Smith ($10,200)

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Talor Gooch ($9,300), Aaron Wise ($9,200) - I could do without the ownership on both, as they are projected to be the two highest owned golfers, but Wise and Gooch each rank inside the top-six of my safety model.
• Most Upside: Brooks Koepka ($9,900) - I’ve been a pretty big proponent of no Brooks Koepka in non-majors over the past few months, but I am willing to come off of that stance this week at his tag of $9,900. I want to stress that this is GPP-only, but he is the most significant model increase I have when it comes to win equity versus overall rank. I think using the stance of Koepka helping Doak design Memorial Park as your sole outlook is lazy handicapping, but there is something to that when he is showing as one of the better upside plays without that being correlated into my model.
• Favorite GPP Play: Joaquin Niemann ($9,500) - I don’t think there is a considerable difference between Joaquin Niemann, Talor Gooch or Aaron Wise, but we see the latter two at over 2x the ownership percentage. I know people continue to be frustrated by the Chilean because of his putter, but he has gained with his irons in 19 of his last 23 trackable starts and off the tee in 33 of 37. Perhaps that is something he can use to his advantage at a venue where missing the greens can be deadly.
• Fade: Patrick Reed ($9,000) - I don't hate Reed, but I am the lowest on him of the group.
• Most Likely Winner: Brooks Koepka ($9,900)

$8,000 Range

• Safest Play:  Maverick McNealy ($8,500) - Maverick McNealy ranks 12th in both strokes gained off the tee and around the green over his last 24 rounds. We have seen him make 12 of 13 cuts in a row, including 10 of those resulting in a top-30. Sometimes a golfer just needs a few breaks to get over the hump when they are consistently in contention.
• Most Upside: Seamus Power ($8,400) - You could swap Maverick McNealy and Seamus Power if you wanted. Power carries a ton of similarities having made 14 cuts over his past 15. Eleven of those have resulted in a top-31.
• Favorite GPP Play: Max Homa ($8,000) - Max Homa is a little bit of a boom-or-bust option, but seven made cuts in a row for a golfer that does possess winning upside when he does get hot. I typically prefer him on courses that are more challenging like the one he draws in Texas, and he has proven to be a very solid wind player throughout his career.
• Fade: Lanto Griffin ($8,100) - I took Seamus Power in a head-to-head bet over him
• Most Likely Winner: Maverick McNealy ($8,500) 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)

• Safest Play: Erik Van Rooyen ($7,800)  - I still prefer for GPPs.
• Most Upside: Charley Hoffman ($7,300) - Bold claim with Jason Day being in this range.
• Favorite GPP Play: Talor Moore ($7,100)
• Fade: Branden Grace ($7,600) 
• Most Likely Winner: Charley Hoffman ($7,300)

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:

Luke List $6,900, Sahith Theegala $6,900,

Fliers: Tom Hoge, Lee Hodges, Peter Uihlein, Trey Mullinax, Wyndham Clark, Paul Barjon

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