College Football Betting Picks for Week Five (10/2/2021)

September 30, 2021

Our college football CFB betting picks for Week Five. Every week, Nick recommends the best CFB bets and top CFB wagers for the college football betting slate.

Entering the month of October, there are plenty of familiar faces atop the college football rankings, with several surprises. Clemson has fallen mightily, now sitting at 2-2, Oklahoma has looked beatable in nearly every game this season, and preseason highly hyped programs like North Carolina are already seeing their Vegas win totals as unachievable, as we shared with you in our Expert Preseason Win Totals Futures Betting article.

Last week brought yet another winning week, with a 2-1 record in Week Four. Boise State and Utah State both played lethargically to the tune of hitting the under by 40.5 points. Kentucky and South Carolina provided the sole loss of the week thanks to a host of Wildcats turnovers in a game that could have been out of hand if they took care of the football. In the late game, Hawaii and New Mexico sputtered their way to hitting the under. The season-long record is 9-7.

For Week Five of the college football season, here are some expert money-line and over/under betting picks.

Connecticut @ Vanderbilt (-14.5)

O/U: 51.5

In a game that was shockingly passed up for ESPN's College GameDay, the UConn Huskies travel to Nashville to take on the lowly Vanderbilt Commodores of the SEC. Lou Spanos took over as the interim head coach after Randy Edsall's dismissal, and the Huskies battled last week to a narrow 24-22 loss against a decent Wyoming program. The Huskies had the game within their grasp after scoring a touchdown with four seconds remaining, but were unable to tie the game on the 2-point conversion. While the offense is a work-in-progress, and will be starting freshman quarterback Tyler Phommachanh this weekend alongside five other listed starting freshmen on offense, the defense showed some signs of life and might be this team's saving grace.

When Clark Lea departed South Bend to take over the Vanderbilt program this offseason, he knew that it would be a significant uphill battle. An opening loss to East Tennessee State showed that the program still had further to fall, but the team followed it up with a stunning road win over Colorado State. The offense had high hopes with sophomore Ken Seals at the helm after a promising freshman campaign in 2020. Unfortunately. Seals has received little-to-no protection from his line and is under duress far too often. Coach Lea's defensive chops, groomed over his time as a defensive coordinator at Notre Dame, have shown off instantly holding lesser opponents like ETSU and Colorado State under 24 points each, but they got their doors blown off last week against Georgia at home (62-0).

If you are a college football fan whose program disappoints and frustrates you from time to time, there is no question that this is a game that you'll want to tune into to make you feel better about your program. UConn is in the middle of a crisis, having left the American Athletic Conference in favor of the Big East, which left the football program as an Independent in limbo. Nothing in the short-term looks promising in Storrs, Connecticut, as interim coach Spanos hopes to navigate successfully through the remainder of the 2021 campaign. Meanwhile, in Nashville, the Commodores do have hope with their new coach and a young team, but playing in the SEC is a daunting task, especially for a program that has been historically mediocre at football.

Pick: Under 51.5

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Western Kentucky at Michigan State (-11)

O/U: 64.5

If you've read this column, you'll have heard about Bailey Zappe and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers' high-flying passing attack. Coach Tyson Helton's offense has been electric in 2021, with Zappe and three of his former Houston Baptist teammates transferring this year with their offensive coordinator Zach Kittley to the hills of Kentucky. Despite his Hilltoppers only playing in three games so far (most teams have four games under their belt at this point), Zappe ranks 10th in the country in passing yards (1,224 yards), sixth in touchdowns thrown (13) and has only two interceptions to his name. Unfortunately for Zappe, the defense has been atrocious, resulting in a 1-2 start, with losses at Army and to Indiana. The over is 3-0 in Western Kentucky games this season, and the over was 3-1 in Zappe's abbreviated four-game fall 2020 schedule for Houston Baptist.

When coach Mel Tucker was hired prior to the 2020 season, it was evident that he was not the Spartans' top pick at the time. After Michigan State was rejected by Cincinnati's Luke Fickell and Pitt's Pat Narduzzi, the former Colorado head coach came to East Lansing with a chip on his shoulder, which is starting to show up on the field this season. The Spartans are 4-0, with wins over Northwestern, Youngstown State, Miami and Nebraska. The offense has been a big catalyst of this turnaround for the now-ranked program, with Wake Forest transfer running back Kenneth Walker III leading the way with 554 rushing yards and six touchdowns so far. Sophomore quarterback Payton Thorne has had a steady hand, with 10 touchdowns and only one interceptions this year, spreading the ball around to his receivers. The defense, meanwhile, is not as good as the characteristically strong Spartans defenses under former coach Mark Dantonio, but they have managed to force 1.8 turnovers per game and have been stout against the run.

Both teams close off the nonconference portion of their schedules with a game that could have its share of big-play highlights. The Spartans' pass coverage hasn't seen a threat like they will this weekend, while the Hilltoppers have yet to prove they can stop anyone on defense. No matter the score, Western Kentucky will be airing the ball out which could lead to quicker drives, more clock stoppages, and more points.

Pick: Over 64.5

Memphis at Temple (+11)

O/U: 59.5

The Memphis Tigers lost last week on a buzzer-beating field goal by UTSA's Hunter Duplessis at home. How coach Ryan Silverfield's program responds to that disappointment will be telling. The offense has been strong at times, but can become one dimensional as the running attack has been non-existent the past two weeks. In wins over Nicholls State, Arkansas State and Mississippi State, freshman quarterback Seth Henigan has been the main force on offense, and he has a collective nine touchdowns and only one interception. His favorite targets, receiver Calvin Austin III and tight end Sean Dykes have combined for 44 of the team's 72 receptions (61.1%) and a staggering 73.1% of the team's yards produced through the air. The two stars, with likely NFL futures awaiting them both, have caught all nine touchdowns and have been fed the ball over-and-over again.

Coach Rod Carey's Temple Owls are in the midst of a total rebuilding year. Wins over Akron and Wagner will help boost the win total at the end of the year, but the Owls have scored a combined 17 points against their only other two opponents (Rutgers and Boston College). Justin Lynch and Georgia transfer D'Wan Mathis have split time at quarterback, with both padding their stats last week against Wagner to look much better than they truly are. A bright spot has been the defense. Despite giving up 61 points to Rutgers, in a game that was far closer than the box score indicated, the Owls rebounded to hold Boston College to only 28 points, showing some signs of life against an undefeated ACC program.

If the Owls have any hope of pulling off the upset against the conference foe, they'll need to zone in on Calvin Austin III and Sean Dykes in the passing game. Neutralizing these weapons would go a long way towards forcing Memphis' hand. For Memphis, the key should be to try to re-establish the run game on the road. Coach Silverfield will want to get an early lead, and to preserve it with his running game, keeping his freshman quarterback's confidence in balance.

Pick: Under 59.5

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