Chef's Special - NFL Conference Championship Weekend

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Conference Championship weekend is here, and we are set up for an incredible Super Bowl no matter how this shakes out.  Once again, we have two very special QB match-ups with the young stars, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, and two of the greatest to ever take the field in Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.

Last week the bets went 5-5 for -2.5 units, and we were very unfortunate to have Patrick Mahomes exit the game since one of the largest bets was Mahomes over 2.5 passing TDs.  The playoffs have not been as kind as the regular season, but I mentioned I was going to open things up a bit and not be as selective.  The record moves to 105-69 on the year, and hitting at that win rate with that many plays is one of my biggest achievements in the many years of betting and DFS.   Thank you for a great season, and I cannot wait to continue connecting with many of you and chatting about any and everything related to sports.

Before getting too far into the post, please refer to this post as an introductory piece before continuing. Also, be sure to check out the betting tools.

Introduction to Chef's Special Betting Picks

***Read only if it is your first week here***

This week I will layout a little more information for those of you that are reading for the first time. Last year I handicapped the entire season and had a solid year finishing up 20+ units. If you are new or unfamiliar with the terminology, I will explain (also use Google if you need it).

In a nutshell, it is a way to measure the size of a bet for players of all bankroll sizes. For example, @Uncle_Leo may have a standard bet size of $10, @GarageGuyChase may have a standard bet size of $25, and @ThunderDanDFS may have a standard bet size of $50.

The weight of a unit would mean different financial gain for all of these players but tracks how well someone is doing betting as a sports bettor. For all of you basic bois, let's use my results from last year as an example - see below:

• Example: 2019 NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total Bets [7-2 on 4&5U plays]
• Mr. Uncle Leo would be the following: 22.5U x $10 = $225 in the green on the season
• Mr. Garage Guy would be the following: 22.5U x $25 = $562.50 in the green on the season
• Mr. Danny Boi would be the following: 22.5U x $50 = $1125 in the green on the season.

Everyone finished in the green. However, Mr. Danny Boi made more financially than the others on his unit scale. With that being said, I performed equally for all parties.

Drew Deen's (@ChefBoiRDeen) Conference Championship  Betting Card

Here, I will post my Conference Championship weekend betting picks. Staying consistent with your unit size is crucial. Without it, it will seem as if I am doing better or worse than I actually am because some wins/losses will be weighted differently than the others.

2019 NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total [7-2 on 4&5U plays]

2020 NFL Best Bets (+47.78u) 105-69 Total [3-0 on 4&5U plays]

• 0-1.5U Risk Record: 69-54
• 1.51U - 3.99U Risk Record: 33-15
• 4-5U Risk Record: 3-0

Last Updated: Saturday 12:23 ET

• Bucs +3.5 vs Packers - Risk 2.3u to win 2u
• Bills +3.5 vs Chiefs - Risk 2.3u to win 2u
• Bucs/Bills 7pt Teaser (Bucs +10.5/Bills +10.5) - Risk 2.6u to win 2u
• Aaron Jones under 62.5 Rushing Yards - Risk 0.6u to win 0.5u
• Robert Tonyan over 34.5 Receiving Yards - Risk 0.6u to win 0.5u
• Allen Lazard over 3.5 Receptions - Risk 0.7u to win 0.5u
• Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 Passing TD's - Risk 2.4u to win 1u
• Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 Passing TD's - Risk 0.5u to win 0.55u
• Devin Singletary over 63.5 receiving/rushing yards - Risk 0.7u to win 0.5u

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