Champ or Chump: Josiah Gray

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of Washington Nationals SP Josiah Gray in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2021. What should we expect moving forward?

Last week, this column took a detailed look at Tylor Megill's performance to date and concluded with a pessimistic take on the sustainability of his current numbers. If your roster needs pitching and Megill isn't the answer, you may be wondering who is. This author would answer Josiah Gray. Gray was always regarded as a decent prospect, being taken 72nd overall in the 2018 Amateur Draft. His prospect status has improved since, currently ranking as the second-best prospect in Washington's system behind Keibert Ruiz.

Gray made his big league debut with the Dodgers before being included in the blockbuster deal that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to Hollywood. It was actually the second time Gray has been moved at the deadline, as he was also a part of the Yasiel Puig trade in 2019. His numbers in the Show have been solid, with a 4.13 ERA and 4.31 xFIP in 24 IP. More importantly, fantasy managers have to pay attention to any hurler who combines a 30.7 K% with an 8.9 BB%.

Gray is an extreme fly ball pitcher, so he's likely to allow his fair share of homers. However, his approach also suppresses BABIP and should allow him to post an outstanding WHIP to go with his strikeouts. Ironically, the best-case scenario for the future looks a lot like Scherzer, the guy that the Nationals gave up to acquire him. He'll probably need a little more velocity and spin to reach those heights though. Here is a closer look at what we can expect in the near term.

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Scouting Enthusiasm

Professional scouts generally know how to evaluate young talent, and their opinions are always a good place to start when considering a player's fantasy viability. The FanGraphs team sees Gray as a guy with plus stuff and command as illustrated in the following table:

Gray may have arrived a little early in their estimation, but the team rank, overall rank, and FV score all suggest that this is an arm they believe in. MLB.com's scouting report concurs, as illustrated below:

The most important takeaway here is that Gray received at least a 50 on four different pitches, suggesting the possibility of a deeper repertoire than the FanGraphs report indicated. It also provides more info on Gray's arsenal, noting that his heater has "riding and rising life" that batters "struggle to catch up with." It continues to say that his delivery has "funk" but that he repeats it well, adding deception to his plus arsenal.

Great Use of the COVID Season

Seemingly every prospect was said to have made great gains at the alternate training sites when COVID-19 canceled the 2020 MiLB season, and Gray is no exception. He reportedly "sharpened both of his breaking balls" at the Dodgers alternate site. However, his performance on the farm suggests that real progress was made in admittedly small samples.

Gray reached the High Minors with Double-A Tulsa in 2019, pitching to a 2.75 ERA and 4.08 xFIP in 39 1/3 IP. He didn't allow a single homer despite pitching in a home park with a 119 HR factor from 2017-19, suggesting some ability to suppress long balls. He induced tons of pop-ups as well, posting a 44.7 FB% and 30.4 IFFB%. He also struck out a solid 25.5% of the batters who faced him against a 6.8 BB%. All of this pointed toward a strong fastball spin rate and a promising future in fantasy.

Gray did all of those things but better for Triple-A Oklahoma City this season, pitching to a 2.87 ERA and 3.92 xFIP over 15 2/3 IP. His FB% climbed to an insane 57.6% which combined with a 21.1 IFFB% to produce a microscopic .167 BABIP in a home park that ranked in the 91st percentile for BABIP in 2019. His 15.8% HR/FB was a little high, but remember that this is the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League we're talking about. His K-BB% was also stellar with a 38.6 K% and 3.5 BB%. It's enough to make a fantasy gamer salivate!

Analyzing Gray's Big League Performance

15 Triple-A innings is a small sample, but his big league numbers carry extremely similar peripherals. His 60.3 FB% is one of the highest rates this author has ever seen, and it includes plenty of pop-ups with a 14.3 IFFB%. The resulting .212 BABIP seems really low, but his .188 xBA is actually lower than his .225 average against. His K-BB% of 21.8 is also very strong, giving Gray the Holy Grail of strikeouts and pop-ups. The one thing that hasn't gone according to plan is his 25.7 HR/FB, but his minor league resume offers hope that it will regress.

Gray primarily features three pitches with a show-me change rounding out his repertoire, and all three have been great thus far. His fastball averages 94.6 mph on the gun with a 2,276 RPM spin rate, but its active spin rate of 99.6% helps it play up. It isn't always a strike with a Zone% of 47.5, but its 12.4 SwStr% more than makes up for it. It's also responsible for Gray's pop-up prowess, as hitters have a 67.6 FB% and 30.4 IFFB% against the offering.

Gray's curve and slider are both great wipeout offerings. His curve has a 26.9 SwStr% and 41.8% chase rate, making up for a relatively low Zone% of 38. Similarly, his slider has a 20.7 SwStr% and 43.2% chase rate against a Zone% of 36.2%. Either is capable of ending any plate appearance, a luxury that few pitchers have.

The Final Verdict

Gray's fly-ball profile could result in more homers allowed than fantasy managers would like, but most of them should be solo shots considering that he doesn't figure to allow too many baserunners. His repertoire absolutely supports his elite strikeout rate, and the Nationals are likely to leave him in the rotation for the rest of the 2021 campaign and beyond. Wins could be tough to come by with that offense, but it's still tough to believe that the 23-year-old is available in 35% of Yahoo! formats. Go ahead and put in a claim if your fantasy rotation needs an extra Champ to help you reach your innings cap.

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