RADIO
Mark McWhirter analyzes the impact of rookie wide receiver CeeDee Lamb joining the Dallas Cowboys for 3030 fantasy football leagues.
The Dallas Cowboys enter 2020 fresh off a season in which they led the NFL in total offensive yardage, averaging 431.5 yards per game. The core offensive group returns but a certain key addition has fantasy drafters worrying about the outlooks for recent 1,100-plus yard receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup while celebrating quarterback Dak Prescott.
To the surprise of many, talented wide receiver CeeDee Lamb fell to Dallas at pick 17 of this year’s draft.
Debatably the top receiver available in what was pegged as an exceptionally talented draft for the position, Lamb’s addition merits investigation as to the level of impact to the team’s other pass-catchers, as well as its quarterback.
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Cowboys’ Passing Outlook
The Cowboys are second in the NFL with 190 vacated targets. The majority of these available targets come from the departure of slot receiver Randall Cobb and long-time Cowboy tight end Jason Witten. Both of these players received 83 targets last season, with Cobb doing so on a 15.5% target share in 15 games and Witten doing so with a 14.4% target share.
Promising for all pass catchers in this offense is Kellen Moore continuing to call plays, as his promotion to offensive coordinator last season coincided with the Cowboys attempting 597 passes. There is no reason to believe this team will throw less but projecting any reasonable decrease would still leave plenty of opportunity available with so many vacated targets. The Cowboys ranked second in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA and Mike McCarthy’s influence is unlikely to be a drastic negative, as McCarthy’s offenses ranked top-10 in offensive DVOA in 11 of his 13 seasons in Green Bay.
Fortunately for the Cowboys’ trio of talented wideouts, Kellen Moore utilized 11 personnel nearly two-thirds of the time last season. Further, this is a characteristic that has been shared by Moore’s new head coach throughout his Packers’ tenure. This is an important note, as 11 personnel will allow each of Cooper, Gallup, and Lamb to see the field simultaneously. The Cowboys were near the top of the league in offensive plays run per game and led the NFL in average yards per play at 6.46. All of this shows that this is an offense worth investing in.
Rookie Role
Randall Cobb spent the majority of his time in the slot last season and this is likely where CeeDee Lamb is to be utilized in his rookie season. While Lamb has the makings of a potential number one receiver, his exceptional ability to make plays after the catch should suit him well in this role. Although not a burner, Lamb possesses incredible hands and an ability to change direction at top speed without gearing down. A strong route runner who fights for extra yardage as a ball carrier, Lamb has the talent to post big numbers even if his average depth of target matches Cobb’s 9.5 yards from last year. 42% of Lamb’s catches last season with Oklahoma came out of the slot, so this position will not need to be learned from scratch. With 190 vacated targets and no significant additions in the passing game outside of Lamb, there should theoretically be enough targets to support fantasy production from three wide receivers.
If Lamb commands a target share similar to Cobb’s 15.5%, he should have a floor of nearly 90 targets in his rookie season. With the number of vacated targets in Dallas, it is difficult to envision Lamb not accomplishing this feat. Ultimately, Lamb’s season may mirror that of Cobb’s 2019 season, but with room for upside should he prove more dynamic or be a larger factor in the red zone.
Dynamic Duo
Amari Cooper finished as the WR9 in half-PPR last season, while Michael Gallup ranked as the WR22 in only 14 games. Gallup actually led the team with a 21.7% target share, with Cooper trailing close behind at 20.7%. In terms of average fantasy production, the duo contributed almost exactly evenly, with Cooper at 12.9 points per game and Gallup at 12.8. Their production came in different ways, however. Cooper lined up all over to exploit matchups while Gallup mainly lined up as the team’s X-receiver. This deployment propelled Cooper to a healthy 15.1 yards per reception and Gallup to an even more impressive 16.8 yards per reception. This level of production should be sustainable sans any decrease in target volume, as Cooper held an average depth of target of 12.8 yards and Gallup 12.4 yards. This highlights the need to examine Lamb’s impact, as Cooper and Gallup are clearly otherwise set up for significant fantasy success.
Lamb’s draft capital means the team is invested in his success, but Amari Cooper was acquired for a first-rounder and got paid handsomely this offseason. According to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, Cooper has never finished above the 71st percentile in success rate versus man coverage. This obviously limits him, but the flexibility in his utilization should allow him to continue to overcome this flaw. The Cowboys’ depth at receiver should enable them to continue putting Cooper in advantageous situations. If Lamb stays mostly in the slot and Cooper reprises his role from last season, then Gallup is likely to be utilized as the X-receiver in this offense. As encouragingly pointed out in Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, Gallup faced plenty of press coverage last season and succeeded by posting a 71.2% success rate versus man coverage and a strong 81% contested catch rate.
Cooper and Gallup both clearly possess the talent to succeed in the roles they are expected to play. Lamb’s addition should not limit their time on the field, as this team is likely to run a significant number of three-wide sets. There is room for this offense to throw even more, but a repeat of last season should be enough for both players to receive at least 110-120 targets, assuming roughly 20% target shares. Cooper has a 77.5% catch rate since joining the Cowboys, but even last season’s 74.3% catch rate would give Cooper a floor of 82 receptions with that target volume. It is clear that Cooper is much safer than feared. Gallup, meanwhile, has a much lower floor reception-wise. As evident by his career 54.7% catch rate, Gallup is riskier in half or full-PPR leagues, with a floor of roughly 60 receptions.
Both Cooper and Gallup possess tremendous touchdown upside but are still likely to cap each other’s ceiling in this regard. The Cowboys scored 30 touchdowns through the air last season and have an even more imposing aerial attack this year. Thirty touchdown passes did mark a career-high for Dak Prescott, though, so there is certainly room for regression.
All in all, the fears associated with Lamb’s addition appear to be overblown as they relate to the fantasy outlooks for Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Cooper remains a good bet for a WR1 finish and can be attained in the third round with his ADP of 33rd overall. This draft cost means that owners who solidify the running back position in the first two rounds can still grab a WR1 for their squad. Michael Gallup represents a screaming value at his ADP of WR32 and 74th player overall, as he is likely to finish as a top-24 receiver this year.
No More Witten
Blake Jarwin steps into the number one tight end role vacated by future Hall-of-Famer Jason Witten. The athletic Jarwin is capable of taking advantage of increased opportunity and Witten’s 83 vacated targets present just that. The question is whether Lamb’s presence in the slot will take away from the number of underneath targets intended for the tight end.
Jarwin received 41 targets of his own last year and does not need to command a significant percentage of the Cowboys’ 190 vacated targets in order to be fantasy relevant. If even half of the targets vacated by Witten go to Jarwin, he will finish as a backend TE1. For evidence of this, look no further than Jason Witten’s TE12 finish last season. Jarwin is capable of doing more than Witten did with a similar level of volume. Witten and Jarwin combined for seven touchdown receptions in 2019 and Jarwin should be a lock for a handful of scores this year.
The Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard combined for 69 receptions on 91 targets a year ago. Pollard has the chops to contribute in a meaningful way in the passing attack, as he spent time as a wide receiver in college. Pollard can be expected to receive a slight bump in targets this season, which will eat away at the ceiling of other pass-catchers such as Lamb and Jarwin. However, Zeke is a capable pass-catcher who excels in pass protection and will not cede snaps easily. Pollard remains little more than a handcuff, albeit a high-end one, behind workhorse Elliott. He may see slightly fewer targets this season thanks to Lamb’s addition, but not enough to alter his fantasy outlook.
Dak-to-Dak QB2 Finishes?
Dak Prescott finished as the QB2 in 2019 and has the type of arsenal to make it back-to-back QB2 performances. He will have to beat out one of Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson to do that, but Dak should be the favorite to finish as the QB3. Dak offers an underrated rushing floor, but it is CeeDee Lamb’s addition that has Prescott’s value soaring to new heights. With Pro Football Focus’s number one ranked wide receiver corps, Prescott has an envious group of offensive weapons.
There is room for regression in the touchdown department due to his above-average 5% touchdown rate, but the talent of this offense should keep it producing at a potent clip. Dak’s 54.7% deep ball accuracy rating was sixth-best in 2019, according to Football Outsiders. If Lamb offers more than Cobb it will open up those deep balls even more, making the sky the limit for Prescott this season.
Range of Outcomes
The range of outcomes for rookies during an unusual offseason tormented by the pandemic is even more difficult to project than normal. It is clear on tape that Lamb is an alpha receiver with elite potential. What is not clear is how quickly he will learn the playbook, mesh with a new quarterback, and acclimate to the next level with a limited training camp and no preseason. Lamb’s floor appears to be somewhere near Randall Cobb’s 2019 season, with the upside to approach 100 targets and emerge as a viable flex play in fantasy.
Amari Cooper appears poised to finish as a WR1, although Lamb’s addition is unlikely to quell any concerns over his history of inconsistency.
Michael Gallup’s floor includes the possibility of being surpassed by Lamb for number two in targets but also includes the possibility of leading the team in targets. The most likely outcome is Gallup remaining the Cowboys’ WR2 while significantly outperforming his current ADP.
Blake Jarwin is essentially free to obtain in drafts and represents a savvy pick for owners who miss out on more sure-fire options. He is likely to surpass 80 targets and score enough to be relevant.
Ultimately, Lamb’s addition should not cause fantasy owners to shy away from targeting Cowboys’ pass-catchers this season.
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