RADIO
Pierre Camus takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in week 11. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2018 fantasy baseball season.
It finally feels like summer! As the weather heats up, so do many bats that have lain dormant for the first quarter of the season. Monthly splits are very real for certain players, so you may consider buying into some recent hot streaks, fluky as they may seem.
Scouting players who may be undervalued and re-assessing players who may be overvalued is a weekly exercise that you should constantly pursue as a dedicated fantasy baseball manager. Fortunately, I have you covered. Here are a few players who are good buy or sell candidates based on their current performance compared to ownership levels. This could mean scooping them off waivers if possible or actively seeking a trade to acquire or discard certain players in order to maximize value.
I will typically include at least one player at each key position group (infield, outfield, pitcher) and will never advocate that you buy or sell a player if I wouldn't follow the same advice myself. Now, time to assess some fantasy values.
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Underrated Players - Week 11
Miguel Andujar (3B, NYY) - 60% owned
With the way Gleyber Torres is mashing, it's easy to forget that Andujar was the first rookie to make an impact for the Yanks this year. He's held down the hot corner the whole time and doesn't appear ready to relinquish the spot any time soon. While his power numbers are lower than veterans like Evan Longoria and Kyle Seager, what sets him apart is a .306 batting average and the fact he's crossed the plate more times than those two. He may not be quite ready to join the conversation of top-10 fantasy third basemen and is far less helpful in OBP leagues, but he's making hard contact at a fairly high rate and holds a spot in one of the top lineups in all of baseball. Much like Greg Bird, the fact that he's a smaller fish in a huge lake makes his perceived value less than his true worth.
Scott Schebler (OF, CIN) - 16% owned
Aside from the massive hot streak that has seen Schebler gather 13 hits in his last 28 at-bats, there's another recent development that should pique your interest. Schebler has begun to bat from the leadoff spot the last couple of games, which could do wonders for his run-scoring potential. It helps that Joey Votto is finally starting to hit like Joey Votto. Schebler is far off last year's 30-HR pace, but he's also batting 44 points higher and striking out five percent less. He is hitting far fewer fly balls, which has resulted in a continued increase in hard contact and more base hits. You may prefer an Adam Duvall who will rack up homers and sink your average, but Schebler will provide more value across the board and is available in all but the deepest leagues.
Frankie Montas (SP, OAK) - 29% owned
Last week, Montas was a sneaky streaming option against the lowly Royals after posting a strong first start of the season. Now, he's suddenly a must-add after three straight shutdown performances with a total of three ER allowed over 21 2/3 innings. Although he's been in the minors seemingly forever (since 2010 actually), Montas is just 25 years old and could finally be showing that he's ready to develop into a reliable starter if he can stay healthy. He exceeded a 30% K-rate in his last two stops at Triple-A, although it remains to be seen if he can fool enough batters to sustain a high strikeout rate in the AL West. Montas relies mainly on his sinking fastball while mixing in a slider with a show-me changeup. If he can keep the ball on the ground at a higher rate, this could become the type of pitcher the A's were hoping Jharel Cotton would have been this season. Add now while you can and prioritize him over Daniel Mengden, who provides a paltry 5.86 K/9 and has already started showing signs of negative regression.
Overrated Players - Week 11
Carlos Santana (1B, PHI) - 84% owned
We've seen people panic about an MVP finalist in Paul Goldschmidt and give up on NL Rookie of the Year Cody Bellinger, but the recurring narrative on Santana is that he'll come around eventually. He was a preseason sleeper after all, so he's got to pan out! After a relatively down season in 2017 power-wise, it was expected that he'd bounce back and benefit from a move to Philly. Citizens Bank Park posted the highest HR Park Factor last season and Santana had flexed 34-homer power the season before, so this was supposed to be a great complement to Rhys Hoskins in the middle of the Phils lineup.
In reality, his 2017 season is what we should have expected all along because it falls right in line with his career numbers. In his first seven full seasons, Santana averaged 24 HR, 80 RBI, and a .245 average. He's currently at .221 with a pace that will put his power numbers barely above those norms. Not bad, but what if I told you that Justin Bour is vying to finish higher than Santana in all three of those areas? So is the aforementioned Evan Longoria, by the way. Find the guy in your league that is convinced Santana is still due to go on a tear, flip him and pickup Bour, Bird, or Alonso to get the same production.
David Peralta (OF, ARI) - 56% owned
I've generally been a fan of what Peralta brings to the table and this season he's delivering career-best power numbers in the first half with 10 homers. He's only accounted for 27 RBI, however, and those long balls are buoyed by a 22.2% HR/FB that is about double his previous career average. A slide down to the fifth spot in the lineup could theoretically improve his RBI totals, but he may score fewer runs in the process. If Peralta does shift to become more of a power hitter, which I don't foresee since his GB/FB hasn't moved much, that neutralizes some of the value he brought as a near-.300 hitter batting ahead of Goldy. He is still a serviceable low-end OF3, but his recent success looks to be a fluky power surge more so than an impending breakout for a 30-year old with a checkered injury history.
Dylan Bundy (SP, BAL) - 64% owned
It's tough not to overreact when a young starter absolutely dominates an opponent with 14 strikeouts over a complete game, even if it was the White Sox. Bundy then proceeded to toss seven scoreless innings earlier this week, effectively rekindling the fantasy community's love for this former fourth overall pick. It should be noted that this latest outing came against the Mets, who are 28th in runs scored and 25th in batting average. The Sox sit at 27th in runs scored and 15th in average. Just a month earlier, Bundy was coming off a three-game stretch in which he gave up 22 runs (19 earned), 23 hits, and nine home runs in just nine innings. That's right, a homer per inning, compared to just eight strikeouts. Those Cheerios don't taste so good any more, do they? Bundy could have turned a corner, but he's never been known for his consistency. You have to balance the good with the bad if you roll with Bundy, but ultimately you'll end up with an ERA over 4.00 and a WHIP over 1.20. It's time to sell while his value is possibly at its peak.
