X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Breakout Hitters Watch for Fantasy Baseball - Sean Murphy, Edouard Julien, Will Brennan

Edouard Julien - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Joshua Costello looks at fantasy baseball breakout hitters, risers, and potential sleepers for the rest of the season, written in Week 17. He looks into Statcast data to identify hitter breakouts.

Welcome RotoBallers to our fantasy baseball breakout hitters article for Week 17. As always, we are here to bring you a few MLB hitters whose advanced metrics are popping out.

My name is Joshua Costello, and I will be giving you 3-5 hitter names that seem to have sustainable improved production this season. Most of these names will be young hitters because that is the nature of a breakout. There will be exceptions from time-to-time as well as I give you more well-known and well-established names that seem to have made a change to their profile this year.

For full transparency, I also track the picks every week, so you can go back and see who I picked. There will be some misses, but hopefully, we'll have enough hits to make this a worthwhile endeavor. I'll give you the tracker first, and then we'll get into the three names we're picking for this week.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

2023 Breakout Picks Tracker

Week Date Breakout Picks
Week 3 4/12 Logan O'Hoppe, Miguel Vargas, Nolan Gorman, Josh Lowe, Brandon Marsh
Week 4 4/19 Jarred Kelenic, Ian Happ, Luis Garcia, Kerry Carpenter, Brent Rooker
Week 5 4/26 Jack Suwinski, James Outman, Nico Hoerner, LaMonte Wade Jr., Cody Bellinger
Week 6 5/2 Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, Jonah Heim, Edward Olivares, Jorge Mateo
Week 7 5/9 Ezequiel Duran, Triston Casas, Joey Gallo, Zach McKinstry, Ke'Bryan Hayes
Week 8 5/16 Alex Kirilloff, Matt McLain, Zach Neto, Taylor Walls
Week 9 5/23 Josh Jung, Brett Baty, Ryan Noda, Esteury Ruiz
Week 10 5/30 Riley Greene, Leody Taveras, Seiya Suzuki
Week 11 6/8 Luke Raley, Keibert Ruiz, Lane Thomas, Jake Burger
Week 12 6/15 Evan Longoria, Tommy Pham, Anthony Rendon, Miguel Rojas
Week 13 6/22 Max Kepler, Gunnar Henderson, Jeimer Candelario, Andy Ibanez
Week 14 6/29 Jordan Walker, Patrick Bailey, Mike Tauchman
Week 15 7/6 Bobby Witt Jr., Jesus Sanchez, David Peralta, Yainer Diaz

Let's get to the picks for Week 17!

 

Sean Murphy, Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves catcher Sean Murphy has been the best catcher in baseball this season, and it has not been close. Since joining the Braves, Murphy has improved in nearly every batting stat. Through 71 games this year, Murphy has slashed .289/.384/.566 with 17 home runs and 57 RBI. The 28-year-old catcher will easily surpass his career-highs of 18 home runs and 66 RBI from last season. Murphy has also never finished a season with a batting average over .250, and he likely will this year.

Sean Murphy

Some of the most significant differences in Murphy's numbers are the quality of contact metrics. The Braves catcher is impacting the ball harder than ever, improving his average exit velocity by over four mph from last season and maintaining a HardHit% of 49.7%. Murphy is also barreling up balls at an incredible rate, owning a barrel rate of 19.2%. Impacting the ball harder and maintaining a nearly 40% fly ball rate has led to a 23.6% HR/FB%, more than double Murphy's rate from last season.

In 2023, the Braves catcher has also increased his walk rate from where it had been for the past two years, increasing to over 10% for the first time since 2020. Murphy also has the highest Sweet Spot% of his career, owning a rate of 40.1%. The 28-year-old has a strikeout rate higher than last season but lower than every other year of his career. Utilizing the DH position has also been beneficial for preserving Murphy's health. I see no reason why Murphy cannot continue this production for years to come.

 

Edouard Julien, Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins second baseman Edouard Julien made his MLB debut earlier this season before being sent back down, but the youngster is here to stay now. Julien's batting average has steadily climbed throughout the season, and his walk rate has risen and stabilized above 10%. The young slugger still has a high strikeout rate of 31%, but throughout his minor league career, his strikeout rate hovered closer to 25%.

Edouard Julien

The Twins' second baseman has been displaying his power, racking up nine home runs and 11 doubles in 48 games this season. Julien also has a HardHit% of 45.9% while making decent contact, 70.6% Contact% on the season. Julien has been on a hot streak since the beginning of June, which has raised his batting average to over .300. Julien owns an extremely high BABIP of .432, and his high strikeout rate may turn some people away, but his results are undeniable.

Fantasy managers should keep an eye on the Twins' second baseman, who is widely available in leagues, because he has the potential to continue to break out in the summer months.

 

Will Brennan, Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians outfielder Will Brennan has displayed the ability to hit for average throughout his professional career but appears to be getting unlucky this season. Brennan slashed .316/.367/.471 in 93 games in Triple-A last year before being called up to the majors. The 25-year-old slashed .357/.400/.500 with one home run, eight RBI, and two stolen bases in 11 games with the Guardians last season.

Brennan's slash line this season sits at .261/.293/.377 with five home runs and 26 RBI, but his BABIP sits at a lowly .288, and his xBA sits at .281, which ranks in the 88th percentile. As the season continues, Brennan should see his batting average rise and more balls in play turn into hits. The young outfielder possesses excellent bat-to-ball skills, which allow him to avoid striking out.

Brennan's strikeout rate currently sits at 14.1%, which is in the 90th percentile of the league. The young hitter also owns a Contact% of 82.3% and a Z-Contact% of 89.7%. Despite his excellent contact skills, Brennan has been significantly better against right-handed pitching in his career, batting .302 compared to .158 against left-handed pitching. Fantasy managers in deeper points and OBP leagues should add Brennan since he should produce in the games he starts, and he should start often.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP