X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Breaking $100 - Free PGA Betting Picks - Golf Best Bets for the 2024 RBC Heritage

Scottie Scheffler has won three of his last four tournaments, yet, had you bet him to win and return $100 in each tournament he has played in the last 12 months, you would have lost -$10 ... that is not a typo. It just goes to show how treacherous the outright landscape is right now with Scheffler coming in at +400 for consecutive events now. We have a dominant world number 1 blocking us out at the top of the board at unbettable prices. If you have not hit a random long shot or Akshay this year, it's been an absolute disaster in the outright market.

More on Scheffler in its own segment, but what we saw at the Masters from Ludvig Aberg was sensational. He joins Jordan Spieth, Dan Pohl, Jason Day, Jonas Blixt, Sungjae Im and Will Zalatoris as the only debutants to finish runner up at Augusta.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Recap of Last Week

  • Outrights -$10
  • Placements -$24.61
    • Cameron Young T20 +350
    • Scottie Sheffler T10 -210
  • Farewell Fiver -$5
  • Total -$39.61

Hideki Matsuyama (-130) finished outside the top-20 after 7 top-20s in his last 8 appearances... sad trombone. Will Zalatoris finished 9th, barely missing out on his top-5. Matthew Fitzpatrick bogeyed his 72nd hole finished T22, nuking that top-20 bet at the very last minute. We were a few strokes away from a few big swings towards profitability.

As Kyle and I point out in the above posts, Scottie Scheffler has been a cheat code for the last little while. If we track his bets back to the start of 2023, Scheffler is profitable across all markets, but we have just made it through the Scottie gauntlet, having now won the Players, the Masters, and the WM Phoenix Open twice. He has his courses he thrives at and that will be fun to bet next year when he enters this stretch.

 

Outrights ($10)

 

 Ludvig Aberg $5.07 (14-1 Bet365)

I fully understand that this bet could go up in flames because of the week Ludvig has just been through, but after a 2nd place finish at Augusta he is in great form and likely continues that into this week. He is absolutely on our card because of his stellar track record on these shorter tracks. Prior to another top-10 at the Masters, four of his five top-10s came at courses shorter than 7,300 yards. Aberg won the RSM in the fall gaining five strokes off the tee in his three rounds on the Seaside Course. His abstract ability to possess lustful length and adoring accuracy has found him dominating at these club down venues, where he can thread his tee shots into thin bottle necks 310 yards down the fairway.

Despite gaining the least amount of strokes from 100-150 in this field, he still finds himself in the middle of the pack from a weighted perspective as he is rather handy from 150 and out. In his win at the RSM and runner up finish at the Masters, he gained the most strokes from tee-to-green in the win and the 2nd-most last week. This venue, with its small greens and concentrated approach shots from 175-200 (28% last year) should reward his total driving and long iron play. And if he does thread the needle into tight bottle necks, a wedge in any pro's hands is usually going to be closer than a 7 iron in Scottie's hands (I had to check this stat to be sure and Scottie averages 26 feet from 150-200, while the PGA Tour average is 22 feet from 100-150. Still a laughably close, though). Aberg is in great form, heading to a great course fit. Bring it home for us you stud!

Sahith Theegala $2.25 (40-1 FanDuel)

Sahith Theegala is no stranger to the danger of a claustrophobic venue like Harbour Town. In fact, not as tight as H Town, but Silverado Resort and Spa, where Sahith won his first PGA event, is a similar layout, not much more than 7,000 yards in length. Theegala has also drastically improved his driver, hitting it further than average, but also gaining on the field in accuracy in four of his last six starts. And if the driver flirts with a DUI this week, he has the ability to create magic from the depths of the coquina shells under the trees that line the narrow fairways here. He is a modern day Tarzan, swinging his way out the jungle with majestic mastery of ridiculous recovery shots.

Now for the fun part - Sahith's short game. This is how he wins tournaments. His ball striking ranks 15th in this field but his putter has that beat with a top-7 ranking in 2024. Strangely, Theegala has been rather awful around the greens, losing just shy of 8 strokes around them in his last 15 rounds since gaining 4 strokes around the greens at Bay Hill. From tracking him over that period, it seems like its one really bad shot that he skulls over the green or leaves in the bunker that derails any momentum in that statistical department. However, he gained just shy of 6 strokes around the greens last year and if that chipping comfort allows the rest of his game to thrive in the tranquil conditions, we can expect Sahith to contend for his 2nd win in less than a year.

 

Tom Kim $1.01 (70-1 at BetRivers but 55-1 at DK now)

We are just going to keep going back to Tom Kim as long as his price allows us to only invest 10% of our outright exposure on him. The recent form for Kim is terrible, but he has a win at the Wyndham Championship and two at the Shriners, both shorter, more positional tracks similar to H Town. What is really exciting about Kim is his final round at Augusta, shooting a 66 and gaining 6.5 strokes on the field, 2 strokes better than Scottie's 68 which was the second best round of the day. His irons gained just shy of six strokes last week too! If he can ride that momentum into Harbour Town this week, he stands a fantastic chance for his fourth win in less than 2 years, and his biggest yet!

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 75-1 $0.94 (FanDuel)

His iron play has regressed a smidgeon lately, but amidst the rounds he is losing strokes, he is also gaining +2.49 in R4 of the Valspar and +2.99 in R3 of the Players. Since working with Mike Caroll on his strength and conditioning, as well as his speed training, Bezuidenhout has gained +0.2 per round off the tee in his last two tournaments. He is currently losing 11 yards to field each drive, but at this venue, that should not haunt him as much as other longer tracks. Bez has a T13, T9 and T25 in his last three appearances on tour, with the 13th at the Players an exciting finish in the strongest field the PGA Tour will see all year (non-majors). Bezuidenhout's long term upside looks as bright as the South African sun he hails from, and we would rather be early on him than miss my fellow countryman's first PGA Tour win.

Byeong Hun An 75-1 $0.94 (FanDuel)

I could end the writeup of Benny An by saying that only Scottie Scheffler gained more strokes tee to green than An at the Masters. Now, his power driver off the tee will have to be pocketed, but that does not mean he lacks weapons OTT at Harbour Town. An has missed two cuts in his last half-dozen starts, but in the other four he had finishes of T16, T8, T21, T16. Despite having the 2nd-worst accuracy in the field, An still gains the 15th most strokes off the tee at courses shorter than 7,200 yards. An has struggled here during the stretch he was struggling with his golf in general, but back in 2018 he finished 8th here, so there are some good vibes for Benny as he looks to sail away from Harbour Town with his first PGA Tour win after losing to Grayson Murray in a playoff in Hawaii.

Jake Knapp 300-1 $0.27 (DK)

Since winning the Mexico Knapp has found himself playing some really inconsistent golf which includes a T4 at the Cognizant the week after his win. The form is lacking but we know what potential Knapp has, and if his surge at the Cog doesn't prove he can dismantle short venues, I can't help you. It is a signature event but 250-1 on a PGA Tour winner with three top-5s this year is straight up disrespectful. We are also going to betting him top-5 at ridiculous odds.

 

Placings ($85)

Below is a summary of how each golfer has done in each respective betting market based on the logic that we would bet them every event to return $100 in each market. Obviously, we don't do that, but it gives us a good idea of the profitability for each golfer and whether or not we are missing out on a golfer's upside by not being aggressive enough and bumping them up from a T20 to a T10. Or the other way around for guys who never quite crack the top 10 but always find themselves in the top 20. Let's call this the opportunity cheat sheet.

 

The Farewell Fiver ($5)

Round 1 2-ball parlay to win $65.59 (DK)

5 legs, twosomes, let's see some magic gang!

Below is my weekly podcast I do that goes in depth on all the bets you will read in this article. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF