X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Breaking $100 - Free PGA Betting Picks - Golf Best Bets for the 2024 RBC Heritage

Scottie Scheffler has won three of his last four tournaments, yet, had you bet him to win and return $100 in each tournament he has played in the last 12 months, you would have lost -$10 ... that is not a typo. It just goes to show how treacherous the outright landscape is right now with Scheffler coming in at +400 for consecutive events now. We have a dominant world number 1 blocking us out at the top of the board at unbettable prices. If you have not hit a random long shot or Akshay this year, it's been an absolute disaster in the outright market.

More on Scheffler in its own segment, but what we saw at the Masters from Ludvig Aberg was sensational. He joins Jordan Spieth, Dan Pohl, Jason Day, Jonas Blixt, Sungjae Im and Will Zalatoris as the only debutants to finish runner up at Augusta.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Recap of Last Week

  • Outrights -$10
  • Placements -$24.61
    • Cameron Young T20 +350
    • Scottie Sheffler T10 -210
  • Farewell Fiver -$5
  • Total -$39.61

Hideki Matsuyama (-130) finished outside the top-20 after 7 top-20s in his last 8 appearances... sad trombone. Will Zalatoris finished 9th, barely missing out on his top-5. Matthew Fitzpatrick bogeyed his 72nd hole finished T22, nuking that top-20 bet at the very last minute. We were a few strokes away from a few big swings towards profitability.

As Kyle and I point out in the above posts, Scottie Scheffler has been a cheat code for the last little while. If we track his bets back to the start of 2023, Scheffler is profitable across all markets, but we have just made it through the Scottie gauntlet, having now won the Players, the Masters, and the WM Phoenix Open twice. He has his courses he thrives at and that will be fun to bet next year when he enters this stretch.

 

Outrights ($10)

 

 Ludvig Aberg $5.07 (14-1 Bet365)

I fully understand that this bet could go up in flames because of the week Ludvig has just been through, but after a 2nd place finish at Augusta he is in great form and likely continues that into this week. He is absolutely on our card because of his stellar track record on these shorter tracks. Prior to another top-10 at the Masters, four of his five top-10s came at courses shorter than 7,300 yards. Aberg won the RSM in the fall gaining five strokes off the tee in his three rounds on the Seaside Course. His abstract ability to possess lustful length and adoring accuracy has found him dominating at these club down venues, where he can thread his tee shots into thin bottle necks 310 yards down the fairway.

Despite gaining the least amount of strokes from 100-150 in this field, he still finds himself in the middle of the pack from a weighted perspective as he is rather handy from 150 and out. In his win at the RSM and runner up finish at the Masters, he gained the most strokes from tee-to-green in the win and the 2nd-most last week. This venue, with its small greens and concentrated approach shots from 175-200 (28% last year) should reward his total driving and long iron play. And if he does thread the needle into tight bottle necks, a wedge in any pro's hands is usually going to be closer than a 7 iron in Scottie's hands (I had to check this stat to be sure and Scottie averages 26 feet from 150-200, while the PGA Tour average is 22 feet from 100-150. Still a laughably close, though). Aberg is in great form, heading to a great course fit. Bring it home for us you stud!

Sahith Theegala $2.25 (40-1 FanDuel)

Sahith Theegala is no stranger to the danger of a claustrophobic venue like Harbour Town. In fact, not as tight as H Town, but Silverado Resort and Spa, where Sahith won his first PGA event, is a similar layout, not much more than 7,000 yards in length. Theegala has also drastically improved his driver, hitting it further than average, but also gaining on the field in accuracy in four of his last six starts. And if the driver flirts with a DUI this week, he has the ability to create magic from the depths of the coquina shells under the trees that line the narrow fairways here. He is a modern day Tarzan, swinging his way out the jungle with majestic mastery of ridiculous recovery shots.

Now for the fun part - Sahith's short game. This is how he wins tournaments. His ball striking ranks 15th in this field but his putter has that beat with a top-7 ranking in 2024. Strangely, Theegala has been rather awful around the greens, losing just shy of 8 strokes around them in his last 15 rounds since gaining 4 strokes around the greens at Bay Hill. From tracking him over that period, it seems like its one really bad shot that he skulls over the green or leaves in the bunker that derails any momentum in that statistical department. However, he gained just shy of 6 strokes around the greens last year and if that chipping comfort allows the rest of his game to thrive in the tranquil conditions, we can expect Sahith to contend for his 2nd win in less than a year.

 

Tom Kim $1.01 (70-1 at BetRivers but 55-1 at DK now)

We are just going to keep going back to Tom Kim as long as his price allows us to only invest 10% of our outright exposure on him. The recent form for Kim is terrible, but he has a win at the Wyndham Championship and two at the Shriners, both shorter, more positional tracks similar to H Town. What is really exciting about Kim is his final round at Augusta, shooting a 66 and gaining 6.5 strokes on the field, 2 strokes better than Scottie's 68 which was the second best round of the day. His irons gained just shy of six strokes last week too! If he can ride that momentum into Harbour Town this week, he stands a fantastic chance for his fourth win in less than 2 years, and his biggest yet!

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 75-1 $0.94 (FanDuel)

His iron play has regressed a smidgeon lately, but amidst the rounds he is losing strokes, he is also gaining +2.49 in R4 of the Valspar and +2.99 in R3 of the Players. Since working with Mike Caroll on his strength and conditioning, as well as his speed training, Bezuidenhout has gained +0.2 per round off the tee in his last two tournaments. He is currently losing 11 yards to field each drive, but at this venue, that should not haunt him as much as other longer tracks. Bez has a T13, T9 and T25 in his last three appearances on tour, with the 13th at the Players an exciting finish in the strongest field the PGA Tour will see all year (non-majors). Bezuidenhout's long term upside looks as bright as the South African sun he hails from, and we would rather be early on him than miss my fellow countryman's first PGA Tour win.

Byeong Hun An 75-1 $0.94 (FanDuel)

I could end the writeup of Benny An by saying that only Scottie Scheffler gained more strokes tee to green than An at the Masters. Now, his power driver off the tee will have to be pocketed, but that does not mean he lacks weapons OTT at Harbour Town. An has missed two cuts in his last half-dozen starts, but in the other four he had finishes of T16, T8, T21, T16. Despite having the 2nd-worst accuracy in the field, An still gains the 15th most strokes off the tee at courses shorter than 7,200 yards. An has struggled here during the stretch he was struggling with his golf in general, but back in 2018 he finished 8th here, so there are some good vibes for Benny as he looks to sail away from Harbour Town with his first PGA Tour win after losing to Grayson Murray in a playoff in Hawaii.

Jake Knapp 300-1 $0.27 (DK)

Since winning the Mexico Knapp has found himself playing some really inconsistent golf which includes a T4 at the Cognizant the week after his win. The form is lacking but we know what potential Knapp has, and if his surge at the Cog doesn't prove he can dismantle short venues, I can't help you. It is a signature event but 250-1 on a PGA Tour winner with three top-5s this year is straight up disrespectful. We are also going to betting him top-5 at ridiculous odds.

 

Placings ($85)

Below is a summary of how each golfer has done in each respective betting market based on the logic that we would bet them every event to return $100 in each market. Obviously, we don't do that, but it gives us a good idea of the profitability for each golfer and whether or not we are missing out on a golfer's upside by not being aggressive enough and bumping them up from a T20 to a T10. Or the other way around for guys who never quite crack the top 10 but always find themselves in the top 20. Let's call this the opportunity cheat sheet.

 

The Farewell Fiver ($5)

Round 1 2-ball parlay to win $65.59 (DK)

5 legs, twosomes, let's see some magic gang!

Below is my weekly podcast I do that goes in depth on all the bets you will read in this article. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP