RADIO
Scottie Scheffler has won three of his last four tournaments, yet, had you bet him to win and return $100 in each tournament he has played in the last 12 months, you would have lost -$10 ... that is not a typo. It just goes to show how treacherous the outright landscape is right now with Scheffler coming in at +400 for consecutive events now. We have a dominant world number 1 blocking us out at the top of the board at unbettable prices. If you have not hit a random long shot or Akshay this year, it's been an absolute disaster in the outright market.
More on Scheffler in its own segment, but what we saw at the Masters from Ludvig Aberg was sensational. He joins Jordan Spieth, Dan Pohl, Jason Day, Jonas Blixt, Sungjae Im and Will Zalatoris as the only debutants to finish runner up at Augusta.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Recap of Last Week
- Outrights -$10
- Placements -$24.61
- Cameron Young T20 +350
- Scottie Sheffler T10 -210
- Farewell Fiver -$5
- Total -$39.61
Hideki Matsuyama (-130) finished outside the top-20 after 7 top-20s in his last 8 appearances... sad trombone. Will Zalatoris finished 9th, barely missing out on his top-5. Matthew Fitzpatrick bogeyed his 72nd hole finished T22, nuking that top-20 bet at the very last minute. We were a few strokes away from a few big swings towards profitability.
From a betting perspective, its been laughable as well ...
His best odds in each market since 2023 came at the 2023 WMPO, which he won:
Outright: +1400 (7% implied probaility)
Top 5: +240 (29%)
Top 10: +110 (48%)
Top 20: -200 (67%)His worst odds were at the Texas Children's… pic.twitter.com/NXCzM6g23Z
— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) April 16, 2024
As Kyle and I point out in the above posts, Scottie Scheffler has been a cheat code for the last little while. If we track his bets back to the start of 2023, Scheffler is profitable across all markets, but we have just made it through the Scottie gauntlet, having now won the Players, the Masters, and the WM Phoenix Open twice. He has his courses he thrives at and that will be fun to bet next year when he enters this stretch.
Outrights ($10)
Ludvig Aberg $5.07 (14-1 Bet365)
I fully understand that this bet could go up in flames because of the week Ludvig has just been through, but after a 2nd place finish at Augusta he is in great form and likely continues that into this week. He is absolutely on our card because of his stellar track record on these shorter tracks. Prior to another top-10 at the Masters, four of his five top-10s came at courses shorter than 7,300 yards. Aberg won the RSM in the fall gaining five strokes off the tee in his three rounds on the Seaside Course. His abstract ability to possess lustful length and adoring accuracy has found him dominating at these club down venues, where he can thread his tee shots into thin bottle necks 310 yards down the fairway.
Despite gaining the least amount of strokes from 100-150 in this field, he still finds himself in the middle of the pack from a weighted perspective as he is rather handy from 150 and out. In his win at the RSM and runner up finish at the Masters, he gained the most strokes from tee-to-green in the win and the 2nd-most last week. This venue, with its small greens and concentrated approach shots from 175-200 (28% last year) should reward his total driving and long iron play. And if he does thread the needle into tight bottle necks, a wedge in any pro's hands is usually going to be closer than a 7 iron in Scottie's hands (I had to check this stat to be sure and Scottie averages 26 feet from 150-200, while the PGA Tour average is 22 feet from 100-150. Still a laughably close, though). Aberg is in great form, heading to a great course fit. Bring it home for us you stud!
Playing #themasters for the first time, Ludvig Aberg has five top-10s in his last 21 PGA starts:
🏆RSM Classic (1st) 7,005 yards
🥈AT&T Pebble Beach (2nd) 6,972
🥈Sanderson Farms (2nd) 7,402
🍀John Deere Classic (4th) 7,268
🎱The Players Champ (8th) 7,198Augusta National Golf… pic.twitter.com/IRmq57JJFa
— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) April 9, 2024
Sahith Theegala $2.25 (40-1 FanDuel)
Sahith Theegala is no stranger to the danger of a claustrophobic venue like Harbour Town. In fact, not as tight as H Town, but Silverado Resort and Spa, where Sahith won his first PGA event, is a similar layout, not much more than 7,000 yards in length. Theegala has also drastically improved his driver, hitting it further than average, but also gaining on the field in accuracy in four of his last six starts. And if the driver flirts with a DUI this week, he has the ability to create magic from the depths of the coquina shells under the trees that line the narrow fairways here. He is a modern day Tarzan, swinging his way out the jungle with majestic mastery of ridiculous recovery shots.
Now for the fun part - Sahith's short game. This is how he wins tournaments. His ball striking ranks 15th in this field but his putter has that beat with a top-7 ranking in 2024. Strangely, Theegala has been rather awful around the greens, losing just shy of 8 strokes around them in his last 15 rounds since gaining 4 strokes around the greens at Bay Hill. From tracking him over that period, it seems like its one really bad shot that he skulls over the green or leaves in the bunker that derails any momentum in that statistical department. However, he gained just shy of 6 strokes around the greens last year and if that chipping comfort allows the rest of his game to thrive in the tranquil conditions, we can expect Sahith to contend for his 2nd win in less than a year.
Tom Kim $1.01 (70-1 at BetRivers but 55-1 at DK now)
We are just going to keep going back to Tom Kim as long as his price allows us to only invest 10% of our outright exposure on him. The recent form for Kim is terrible, but he has a win at the Wyndham Championship and two at the Shriners, both shorter, more positional tracks similar to H Town. What is really exciting about Kim is his final round at Augusta, shooting a 66 and gaining 6.5 strokes on the field, 2 strokes better than Scottie's 68 which was the second best round of the day. His irons gained just shy of six strokes last week too! If he can ride that momentum into Harbour Town this week, he stands a fantastic chance for his fourth win in less than 2 years, and his biggest yet!
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 75-1 $0.94 (FanDuel)
His iron play has regressed a smidgeon lately, but amidst the rounds he is losing strokes, he is also gaining +2.49 in R4 of the Valspar and +2.99 in R3 of the Players. Since working with Mike Caroll on his strength and conditioning, as well as his speed training, Bezuidenhout has gained +0.2 per round off the tee in his last two tournaments. He is currently losing 11 yards to field each drive, but at this venue, that should not haunt him as much as other longer tracks. Bez has a T13, T9 and T25 in his last three appearances on tour, with the 13th at the Players an exciting finish in the strongest field the PGA Tour will see all year (non-majors). Bezuidenhout's long term upside looks as bright as the South African sun he hails from, and we would rather be early on him than miss my fellow countryman's first PGA Tour win.
Byeong Hun An 75-1 $0.94 (FanDuel)
I could end the writeup of Benny An by saying that only Scottie Scheffler gained more strokes tee to green than An at the Masters. Now, his power driver off the tee will have to be pocketed, but that does not mean he lacks weapons OTT at Harbour Town. An has missed two cuts in his last half-dozen starts, but in the other four he had finishes of T16, T8, T21, T16. Despite having the 2nd-worst accuracy in the field, An still gains the 15th most strokes off the tee at courses shorter than 7,200 yards. An has struggled here during the stretch he was struggling with his golf in general, but back in 2018 he finished 8th here, so there are some good vibes for Benny as he looks to sail away from Harbour Town with his first PGA Tour win after losing to Grayson Murray in a playoff in Hawaii.
Jake Knapp 300-1 $0.27 (DK)
Since winning the Mexico Knapp has found himself playing some really inconsistent golf which includes a T4 at the Cognizant the week after his win. The form is lacking but we know what potential Knapp has, and if his surge at the Cog doesn't prove he can dismantle short venues, I can't help you. It is a signature event but 250-1 on a PGA Tour winner with three top-5s this year is straight up disrespectful. We are also going to betting him top-5 at ridiculous odds.
Placings ($85)
Below is a summary of how each golfer has done in each respective betting market based on the logic that we would bet them every event to return $100 in each market. Obviously, we don't do that, but it gives us a good idea of the profitability for each golfer and whether or not we are missing out on a golfer's upside by not being aggressive enough and bumping them up from a T20 to a T10. Or the other way around for guys who never quite crack the top 10 but always find themselves in the top 20. Let's call this the opportunity cheat sheet.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 2-ball parlay to win $65.59 (DK)
5 legs, twosomes, let's see some magic gang!
Below is my weekly podcast I do that goes in depth on all the bets you will read in this article. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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