RADIO
Personally, I am VERY excited for the John Deere Classic as I played TPC Deere Run two years in a row for NAIA Conference Championships, with the only difference in conditions being roughly 70 degrees. I vividly remember looking down the 10th fairway while sleet was forcing me to squint at a frigid flag 350 yards away. When these guys are out there sweating the sunscreen off, think about me playing 36 holes of golf in 32-degree temps. I will also be at the event all four days, so be sure to say "Hi" if you see me dressed in obnoxiously bright shirts.
This week is an absolute lottery, as the winners in the past have been really random and hard to predict. But we have faith that our guys can get it done for us this week, after another absolutely brutal second place finish with Akshay Bhatia three putting the final hole to miss a two-man playoff with Cam Davis. At some point our luck has to turn. Right?
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights $10
We are betting $10 on our outrights AND eachways.
Sepp Straka $1.72 x2 +2200 @ BetRivers
Sepp Straka is back on our card after we nabbed his win at this event last year. He has two T5s in his last four starts and when he steps onto this course, he is capable of almost breaking the course record like he did for 17 holes on Sunday last year. Straka isn't the longest off the tee, but he keeps his ball in play, hitting about 75% of his fairways which is exactly what John Deere's claustrophobic fairways demand. If he sees a few putts drop early, we are in great shape for the burly Austrian to go back-to-back at this event after some much-needed rest after playing four in a row. The big boy needs his rest!
JT Poston $1 X2 +3500 @ Bet365
We are stacking our card with guys who have won here in the past. Poston tends to play well at golf courses he has played well at in the past. At 35-1 we struggled to leave him alone as he has had some solid finishes at the Charles Schwab and RBC Heritage which are shorter courses similar to that of TPC Deere Run. If that form and course fit spills over into this week, we can expect Poston to be right at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. He is also coming off a bit of a break after three straight starts.
Davis Thompson $1.17 x2 +3000 @ Bet365
Davis Thompson and Harris English both possess a death stare that would make Voldemort feel fear. Thompson has been really impressive in his most recent starts, finding himself inside the top 10 at the US Open, followed up by a T2 last week at the Rocket Mortgage. In his last 20 rounds of golf, Thompson has only lost strokes tee-to-green once, while averaging +2.25 strokes per round T2G in his last eight rounds. His game is really trending. It also seems like the putter has rectified itself recently, allowing all areas of his game to be a weapon on any given day. If he improves on that T2 from last week we will be happy campers come Sunday!
Seamus Power $0.58 x2 +6000 @ Bet365
If Seamus Power ever designs a golf course in his future, expect it to be a short, easy golf course. The winner of the Bermuda Championship is going to be back at the JDC looking to add this short par 71 to his list of courses he has won on. Power has been knocking off solid finishes around the top-20 but doing so in mostly designated fields with the very best players on tour saturating the field. In a weaker field, that same level of play should see him inside the top-5 if he continues the way has with a T12 at Harbour Town, T16 at Wells Fargo and T20 at the Travelers. We get some tasty odds for Seamus at 60-1, which allows us to sneak another great course history option on the back end of our card.
Adam Schenk $0.53 x2 +6600 @ Bet365
If recent form were anything to go off of, we would be wondering what Schenk is doing on our card, having lost an average of two strokes per round in his last 7 starts. However, the only reason we are playing Schenk to win, is because of this rather large outright number for him at a course that he has found great results at in the past, with finishes of T6, T4, and T6 in his last four appearances. Maybe we can find this week's Cameron Davis, in the friendly form of Adam Schenk.
Placings ($85)
We have seven additional placements this week.
These are the reasons we like these guys.
Matchups ($0)
The books are too chicken to throw out any matchups that have any sort of edge, with the majority of the tournament long markets providing no value in my matchup tool.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
We have been close, but we are going to try something slightly different this week, placing $1 on the 4-leg parlay, and an additional $1 on each of the 3-leg combinations that come along with it. These 3 of 4 weeks have driven us to this decision, while we still have that $1 on the full 4-legger.
3-ball picks for the parlay and round robin
- Denny Mcarthy
- Davis Thompson
- Joel Dahmen
- Chandler Phillips
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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