RADIO
The Genesis Scottish Open will take place for the third time as a co-sanctioned event between the PGA and DPWT, with all the leftovers playing in the ISCO here in the USA. After a hot and humid week at the John Deere Classic, we head to the mid-50s and potential winds on the Scottish plains.
The overall feel for this week will be finding golfers with good form, good links history, distance off the tee, solid mid and long irons, with success putting on these slower greens. We have a slew of outrights and placements this week, embracing the chance any changes in weather may bring by diversifying our portfolio so that hopefully one of those guys can sneak into the winner's circle for back-to-back dubs for Breaking $100.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Recap of Last Week
🚜Breaking $100 @JDCLASSIC: +$96.92 profit
Outrights +$36.08
🥳Davis ThompsonPlacements: $65.84
✅K Mitchell T20 +160
✅S Power T20 +200
✅S Pol
✅L Glover T40 -120
✅A Rai T40 -220Farewell Fiver -$5
THAT. WAS. THE. BEST!!!!! https://t.co/anpEAXUMA7 pic.twitter.com/3E87MFkxzk
— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) July 8, 2024
What an absolutely awesome week. I made it on to TV alongside Jake Knapp and was there to witness Davis Thompson win the John Deere Classic. We have now hit "my major" in back-to-back years with Sepp Straka coming through for us last year too. I was there for all four days and Davis was just so locked in any time I walked with him. His putter was precise, his demeanor was deathly, and his dominance had the rest of the field looking like a Deere in headlights. An epic week on all accounts, with the placement market crushing $65.84 in profit on top of the outright payout, which we reduced significantly two or so weeks ago (pain). But we are still very happy!
Outrights $10
Not quite the engage-eight blitz we typically roll out, but we are leaving a QB spy in the backfield this week to keep an eye on the weather in case we want to add somebody live at 50-1 odds or so.
Tom Kim $2.77 +3000
After a marathon of consecutive starts, Tom Kim finally missed a cut in his 9th start at the Rocket Mortgage Classic two weeks ago. That ended his run of 34 consecutive competitive rounds and the 12 days of rest he has had since is more than enough to back the now-22-year-old who had his birthday the week of the Travelers where he lost to the best golfer in the world, Scottie Scheffler, in a playoff. Kim's approach play has averaged a stroke per round in the 16 that lead up to the Rocket (we are going to pretend that week never happened).
With his irons back to what we have seen from the young maestro and the driver also really starting to become a consistent weapon having lost strokes only three times in his last 26 rounds (+0.6 avg) which ranks 13th in this field. There is a lot to like about where the Korean star's game that is trending really nicely, but that is not even the main reason he is on the betting card this week.
In his two starts at the Renaissance Club, Kim has finished T6 and 3rd, with his putter gaining a stroke per round in those eight laps around the Scottish links. His ball striking is starting to really peak, he has gained the most strokes at this golf course in this field and is 30-1 in a field without Scottie Scheffler? Sign me the hell up! It's time to board the Thomas Tank Engine and steam to victory in Scotland!
Wyndham Clark $1.87 +4500
A T16 and a T25 in his two appearances in Scotland are not the worst results for Wyndham who has averaged +1.9 strokes ball striking in those eight rounds! The issue has been the putter that has lost strokes in six of the eight but that could change any given week with Clark. He has the power, the long iron precision and if the putter performs, he is a perennial winner on tour who is priced at 45-1 and is likely licking his lips at the thought that he gets the opportunity to try win an event without Scheffler in it.
Brian Harman $1.53 +5500
The Champion Golfer of the year finished T12 here the week before hoisting the Claret Jug in dominant fashion at Royal Liverpool. He has gained off the tee in four of his six rounds here and what has been most impressive lately has been his putting at these kinds of venues, averaging +1.3 on the greens here in 2023. If we get that putter to continue to show up, his iron play has flashed some spike rounds a few times recently. This price tag for someone who has really enjoyed playing across the pond lately was just too good to pass up.
Davis Thompson $1.29 +6500
Had Davis Thompson not won last week, this event would have been an ideal venue for the stoic John Deere Classic champion to appear on most cards again. Witnessing our outright win in person made up for the near misses we have had lately. Thompson is just playing so well right now and that putter is "en feugo" at the moment. We are going to take a gamble at 65-1 that he shows up for business this week in phenomenal form at a course that suits his booming drives, long iron darts and a putter eager to get the Scottish birdies chirping early in the week.
Byeong Hun An $1.20 +7000
The fact that Byeong Hun An has earned the most top-5 dollars in this field over the last year, just goes to show how often he has been at the top of the leaderboard at odds that don't quite reflect his upside now that the broomstick has taken care of business on the greens. An withdrew from the Travelers with a fever and as a result has not played much golf since the US Open.
However, he seems to fancy the European links-style courses, finishing T3 here last year and inside the top 32 in his last three Open Championships. The T3 came off the back of a tee-to-green performance that gained +8.3 strokes that week, with the putter gaining +4.5 strokes in rounds 1 and 4, but losing -3.8 in rounds 2 and 3. If we can get a bit of consistency on the greens, expect that T2G dominance to continue this week with a broomstick putter looking to sweep up the mess he left on the greens here last year.
Max Homa $1.12 +7500
It is not often that Max Homa is found in the 75-1 range. In fact, this is his longest outright price tag since the 2022 PGA Championship where he opened at 80-1. His game has regressed this year, but he has two finishes of T12 and T16 here and had his first major top-10 at the Open Championship last year. Homa has shown some ability to spike at courses he has played well at, which we are hoping for from him this week again. After all, we are only using $1.12 of our $10 to invest in a six-time PGA tour winner.
Alexander Bjork $0.22 +40000
At 400-1 we are tailing @TeeOffSports (aka Spencer Aguiar) who pounced on Bjork at 600-1. On my show last night I took a look at why Spencer may have fancied Bjork and it turns out that his weighted good shot rate is the best in this field. That is enough to sprinkle a little on a 400-1 long shot!
Placings ($85)
This week's placements.
These are the reasons we like these guys.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
We have been close, but we are going to try something slightly different this week, placing $1 on the 4-leg parlay, and an additional $1 on each of the 3-leg combinations that come along with it.
3-ball picks for the parlay and round robin
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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