RADIO
As we sit here on Valentine's Day, golf has to be the ultimate love factory for bettors and supporters alike. As a Jets fan, I relish the opportunity to jump from bandwagon to bandwagon in pursuit of a winner each week. It is basically like a yearlong speed dating convention that affords you the opportunity to flirt with the likes of Max Homa, Tom Kim, and a few other attractive statistical profiles. But don't get me wrong, there are diseases that frequent this space, too.
Personally, I have contracted several bouts of Bradley blindness, Grillolitis, and most recently a chronic case of the Kuchars. Often we are left feeling weak, uninspired, and at times, gross, but we must remember the good times when Dr. Smith came to our rescue and cured us of financial losses and desperation. Today, on the 14th of February, we are sitting in the waiting room of three love doctors who could have a cure for our ongoing conditions this season. Let's meet them, shall we?
But before we do that, for those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Outrights
If you are interested in tailing along as soon as I place my bets, join our discord, where I share my picks as I make them, along with entertaining any other questions and conversations taking place there throughout the week. By the time I get to writing this article, odds have often shortened to varying degrees, so if you are interested in following along with the best numbers, jump into that discord.
This week, we have a trio of outrights that range from 20-1 to 125-1. We will be spending $11.44 to net $130 or more. I will be going over all the bets you read in the rest of the article on tonight's (Tuesday) podcast at 7 ET here. We have space on our card for one more golfer at 40-1 and have not been swept off our feet by anyone in this range, just yet. We will most likely peruse the odds board after Round One to see if anyone catches our eye.
Max Homa ($7.12 @ +2000)
We have bet on Max Homa six times since the Masters and somehow not cashed in on any of the three wins he has cheated on us with. Instead, we were too busy making out with Keegan Bradley outrights, which finished second to Max both times he won. The Bradley blindness has caused more emotional damage than financial, and it's something I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy.
Max returns to The Riviera Country Club in his home state of California and will be looking to add a second victory to his affectionate course history of T10, WIN, and T5 in his last three strolls through the tree-lined fairways. Of all the golfers in this week's field, Homa has the third-strongest course history over the last four years. Only Viktor Hovland and Adam Scott have fallen in love with this event more.
Homa has the ability to excite even the most reserved golf fans with his seductively silky tempo and delicate touch, ranking 13th on approach and 10th in the short game over the last two-dozen rounds. Riviera victors typically score somewhere between -11 and -15, with winds often turning this romanticized venue into a torture chamber of blunders and blown opportunities, making his medium difficulty scoring average (eighth) even more attractive this week.
Having missed the Homa love boat three times and most recently only a few starts ago, it does feel like we are chasing Max, with a potential restraining order coming our way if his course history and incredible recent form fail to break up our recent run of results. However, love is blind, and if we ignore that he won recently, a lot of factors point to success for marvelous Max this week.
Will Zalatoris ($3.17 @ +4500)
This is the first time that we are dipping our toes into the Will Zalatoris dating pool, having avoided much heartbreak over the last year or so. After a rather serious injury to his back, the books have moved on to other more appealing suitors as their favorites to win The Genesis Invitational. Fear not, as we love everybody here, and Willy Z's number at 45-1 was too attractive to avoid taking a second and third look at, inevitably adding him to our card.
The injury is obviously a major concern and his results at the Farmers Insurance a few weeks ago, a course that he has incredible chemistry with, were not promising at all. However, this will be the first designated event that Zalatoris flirts with after ghosting the WM Phoenix Open last week. Will Zalatoris has an incredible major track record, finishing second twice and sixth in the three majors that took place on US soil.
Knowing that Will has a soft spot for difficult, major-like venues, we matched him up with Riviera, which sees lower-than-usual scores and a field strength similar to that of the four majors. If he brings his B+ game, and the course plays difficult, we are completely okay taking a gamble on a guy who should suit this venue and atmosphere, as well as a Beavis and Butthead suit sitting on a couch eating nachos.
Tommy Fleetwood ($3.17 @ +12500)
Tommy Fleetwood missed the cut last week and hasn't won on the PGA tour, yet. However, he won the Nedbank Challenge in November for the second time, which has Kikuyu grass caressing the fairways and rough just like we will see at Riviera this week. His only two starts here were both top 40s, gaining on approach and off the tee, but losing with the putter, which is something that can spike on any given week.
Tommy doesn't blow you away with any of his ball striking, but he leads the field of the world's best in strokes gained around the green, which is a deal breaker at this venue with the average green in regulation rate a whopping 8% lower than tour average. There is no need for a third paragraph for Fleetwood, as his Kikuyu tee-to-green game is a match made in heaven. If he gains putting this week, he stands a fantastic chance of winning the Riviera Royal Rumble!
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Placings
Last week's results: -$20 ... easy math as we got reverse swept yet again ... this has been one of the most devastating runs of results in my time betting golf, but we must remember our gambling vows in these dark times - "for better, for worse, for richer, for poorer, in sickness and health, to love and to cherish, till debt do us part."
- Tom Kim +150 T20 -$5
- Tommy Fleetwood +120 T40 -$5
- Shane Lowry +115 T20 -$5
- Adam Svensson +250 T40 -$5
This week's bets:
- Tom Kim +190 T20 $5
- Tommy Fleetwood +130 T40 $5
- Russell Henley +135 T40 $5
- Matt Kuchar +165 T40 $5
- Billy Horschel +165 T40 $5
To quote last week's article, "The model suggested we play Tom Hoge for T40, but I just don't feel comfortable betting him right now as his consistency is just not there at +120." After missing the cut but continuing to strike his irons exceptionally well, we not going to get catfished by Hoge this week either. For the golfers who have picked, there is a theme of either being exceptional on approach or having a really good short game.
Shane Lowry is extremely appealing at +400 but the model is not taking into account his last two events have been the equivalent of the "red wedding" from Game of Thrones, with lifeless, red-stained numbers in all four major strokes gained categories.
Matchups
My favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets that can be placed, and you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut. We are back to honing in on a golfer who the books love a lot more than we do.
Our only bet that cashed in last week's article. It barely did as Kim ejected himself out of the top 20 over the weekend, losing six strokes in two rounds to finish 14 spots ahead of Cameron Young, who was third-last of the cut makers.
- Tom Kim over Cameron Young +108: $5.40
This week, the matchup markets are sleeping and only DK had matchups out at the time of publication. No matchups this week unfortunately, but stay tuned to my Twitter as I will post any that the model kicks out once they are made available.
A Look Into The Future
With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors, which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200, which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.
The Players
Tom Kim ($5.60 @ +4000 on DraftKings)
After just winning his second event in back-to-back regular season starts, Tom Kim is a star that is burning bright, and if he continues to play the quality of golf we have now become accustomed to, 40-1 will not be available the week of The Players, especially if he wins again before then. TPC Sawgrass puts a premium on driving accuracy and stellar approach play, which could not suit Tom's game any better. This may be my favorite of the two futures bets we have placed so far.
The Masters
Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)
If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight-up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.
His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination, and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.
The Farewell Fiver
Top 10: Tommy Fleetwood $5 +850
We are flying off the top rope in pursuit of Tommy finishing in the top 10. The model really likes his around-the-green game and the maniac really likes his affinity to win tournaments on Kikuyu grass. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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