RADIO
Breaking $100 has been my baby ever since joining the Rotoballer team just under a year ago and last weekend I was nominated as a finalist for Fantasy Golf Writer of the Year. This is an amazing honor and I want to thank you, the readers, for generating demand for betting content and providing me with the opportunity to share my thoughts with you. It has been a fantastic journey and I look forward to many more sweaty miles ahead.
Long shot season in La Quinta ran out of credit and Jon Rahm decided to collect the majority of the betting world's debts, again, winning the American Express at 6-1. Not sure how we are going to win any bets we place this week as Rahm is now 4-1 at the course he won his first major at. He could not be playing better golf at a better time.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights
Torrey Pines is a golf course that only a select few golfers can win on. If you do not have impeccable ball striking or an incredible short game that can overcome defunct approach shots from thick rough, you are not going to win here. The formula is simple, yet the variables in a 156-man field remain abundantly random, with the closest thing to a fixed variable getting priced at +350 at some books. We have hit T40 bets bigger than that. Just wild.
My personal betting card is usually reflected in this article and typically, with how odds shorten as markets adjust to incoming bets, the same Breaking $100 outrights return X8 vs the X10 I try and structure my card around. If you are interested in tailing along as soon as I place my bets, join our discord, where I share my picks as I make them, along with entertaining any other questions and conversations taking place there.
Tony Finau ($9.25 @ +1400 BetMGM)
If you take a look at Tony Finau's last few starts, it is not that much different from that of Jon Rahm's. Tony Finau has won three of his last ten starts, which is pretty impressive if you consider that only two of the other seven starts were worse than T16. He has been making himself very comfortable at the top of the leaderboard and has the combination of power and precision to hang with Rahm if that is what it comes down to on Sunday afternoon.
From a course history perspective, Finau is one of the few San Diego stallions gloriously galloping around the 7,700-yard acreage that has seen him finish T6 or better in four of his last six showings here. Finau returns to his happy hunting ground playing some of the best golf of his life and should have the confidence to take down whoever he sees at the top of the leaderboard this weekend.
Keegan Bradley ($2.25 @ +7000 BetRivers)
Keegan Bradley recently won the ZOZO championship which can be considered a comp course to Torrey South and on top of that he has three top-16s in his last five appearances here. Keegan offers the ball-striking repertoire that a winner requires, but his inconsistent short game has him morphing between stallion and donkey enough to warrant a 70-1 price tag. The course history and physical capability is there for Bradley, who can shuffle his feet closer to a Ryder Cup appearance with a win.
Hayden Buckley ($1.50 @ +9000 FanDuel)
Hayden Buckley tees it up after a second-place finish in Hawaii that he felt slipped through his fingers. He finished the week with the fifth-best performance off the tee and struck his irons well for most of the week. Buckley possesses a rare combination of accuracy and length off the tee, which is a phenomenal weapon to have on this course. A lot of his shots will avoid the thick rough that Torrey Pines has at her defense, setting him up for success the rest of the way.
We are looking for outright love this week and have resorted to Farmers Only in pursuit of a rebound.
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Placings
Well, we knew we were heading into a lottery of an event and luckily we limited our exposure as we landed up with a net loss on the placement front. A T41 from Stewart Cink was a big swing and hurt our bankroll that has been slowly diminishing throughout the fall swing, which is looking like a rather unprofitable series of events for me historically. An influx of new golfers playing courses with a lack of strokes gained data is not ideal for a model based on long-term baselines.
Last week's results -$15.75:
- Tom Kim T20 +125 ($5): T6 $6.25
- Tom Hoge T20 +185 ($5) T32 -$5
- Mark Hubbard T20 +700 ($5) MC -$5
- Stewart Cink T40 +260 ($5) T41 -$5 (pain)
- Satoshi Kodaira T40 +330 ($5) MC -$5
- Ben Griffin T40 +160 ($5) T32 $8
- Emiliano Grillo T40 +155 ($5) MC -$5
- David Lipsky T40 +185 ($5) MC -$5
This week the model only kicked out a few bets, with our model rankings aligning with the books for the first eight golfers, which won't provide us with any edges on the better golfers in the field. Hopefully, Keegan and Adam can get us back to winning bets. It really has been a brutal three events and although I trust my model fully, confidence is dwindling folks.
- Keegan Bradley T20 +220 $10
- Adam Hadwin T20 +250 $10
Matchups
My favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets that can be placed, as you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut. Last week we faded Si Woo Kim off a win and that was going great after shooting 70 on Thursday. He then followed it up with a 64 and Andrew Putnam ended up bogeying his final par 5 of the event which was the nail in the coffin losing to Si Woo by 2 strokes.
- Andrew Putnam (-120) o Si Woo Kim (DraftKings) -$12
No matchups as of right now with only one book offering matchups on this Monday night.
A Look Into The Future
With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200 which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.
The Players
Tom Kim ($5.60 @ +4000 on DraftKings)
After just winning his second event in back-to-back regular season starts, Tom Kim is a star that is burning bright and if he continues to play the quality of golf we have now become accustomed to, 40-1 will not be available the week of The Players, especially if he wins again before then. TPC Sawgrass puts a premium on driving accuracy and stellar approach play, which could not suit Tom's game any better. This may be my favorite of the two futures bets we have placed so far.
The Masters
Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)
If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight-up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.
His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination, and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.
The Farewell Fiver
Top 5: Jon Rahm +105 DK
Last week's Farewell Fiver was Tom Kim T5 +500, who finished ... T6. It really has been the most brutal stretch of events and good fortune has to be around the corner.
Rahm would have cashed T5 in six of his last seven starts globally, with his only finish outside the top 5 coming at a 20-man Hero World Challenge field. Right? It also would have cashed in four of his last six Farmers appearances. Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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