Break The Slate: NFL DFS DraftKings Lineup Picks - Week 3

September 22, 2019

The top daily fantasy football lineup picks for DraftKings in Week 3 of 2019. Joe Nicely's NFL DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.

Hello again RotoBallers and NFL DFS fans! Thanks for joining me here at Break The Slate, a weekly article in which we try to pinpoint the best DraftKings plays available on the main slate. The Kansas City vs Baltimore matchup looms large this week, but you (surprisingly) won't find any Ravens or Chiefs in this week's write up. Why? Because you don't need me to tell you to target this matchup and all its juicy pieces.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 3.

Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, lets Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 3 Picks

Dak Prescott - MIA @ DAL ($6,500)

At the risk of being repetitive, I'm going right back to the Dak Prescott well in Week 3. Those of you that read last week's article know that I was 'all-in' on Dak against the Redskins and his matchup this week against the Dolphins is even better! Prescott looks like a man that's playing for a huge contract and new Cowboys coordinator Kellen Moore's revamped offense is obviously a great fit for him. He's completed an eye-popping 51 of 62 passes through two games for 674 yards and seven TDs. He draws a matchup against perhaps the worst team and defense in the NFL. Through two games Miami has allowed more DraftKings points (68.32) and passing TDs (8) to the QB position than any team in the league. The only concern here is the blowout factor, (however, we've seen the Cowboys remain aggressive throughout in two games that they've won rather handily) but with the Cowboys projected to score roughly 35 points by Vegas oddsmakers, you have to figure Dak will play a big role in getting them there. All eyes will be on the QBs in the KC vs Baltimore matchup, but a pivot to Dak offers salary savings and perhaps the path of least resistance to reaching a monster score at the QB position.

Jameis Winston - NYG @ TB ($5,400)

My oh my, how the fantasy sentiment has changed on Tampa QB Jameis Winston in such a short timespan. In just two weeks, the mob has turned on 'Famous Jameis' after a couple of disappointing outings. His DK price tag has cratered to $5,400 (from $6,600 in Week 1) and, as of this writing, it doesn't look like he'll garner much ownership this week. While he definitely profiles as more of a 'GPP only' play, I do have some serious interest in Winston this week. The matchup is a good one, as he draws a Giants secondary that is only nominally better than the aforementioned Dolphins statistically. NY has allowed the third-most DK points (58.62) and yards (658) to opposing QBs this season. Winston hasn't found his groove yet, but this is a prime breakout spot...he's coming off a Thursday night game (which should give him a little extra prep time), he's at home, and this Bucs offense has a point projection of just over 27 points. This is a contrarian move, but I like the leverage that rostering Winston should give us in large-field GPPs.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 3 Picks

Ezekiel Elliott - MIA @ DAL ($8,900)

If you couldn't tell from the Dak Prescott write-up above, I'm pretty high on the Cowboys chances on offense this week. It's an offense that - while definitely giving Dak more opportunities under new OC Kellen Moore - will still run through Ezekiel Elliott. That philosophy should especially ring true this week in a game in which the Cowboys are huge home favorites against a putrid Dolphins defense. Miami has allowed opposing backs to run roughshod this year and are giving up a chunky 4.48 yards per carry through two games. The bad news for Miami fans is that Elliott (and this offensive line) will be their toughest matchup yet. After easing Zeke into things in Week 1, the Cowboys gave him 23 carries against Washington last week and he should be in for somewhere in that neighborhood against Miami.

Dalvin Cook - OAK @ MIN ($7,800)

After a huge Week 1, Dalvin Cook surprisingly went a bit overlooked last week. I don't expect that to be the case again in Week 3 with a matchup against the Oakland Raiders, but I'm willing to eat a little chalk at this sub-$8k price. The Raiders defense has been competent at stopping the run this season - so this isn't really a matchup that we're going out of our way to target - but, like Zeke Elliott, Cook offers a common-sense path to a big score. Minnesota's offense is old school in that it will not abandon the run, even if they were to get behind early in this game. The Vikes have attempted 65 rushes over their first two games (the fourth-most attempts in the NFL) with Cook getting 41 of those. He currently leads the NFL in rushing with 265 yards and should once again be relied upon heavily in a game where Minnesota is a strong home favorite.

Frank Gore - CIN @ BUF ($4,400)

I'm aware that Bills RB Frank Gore is a pretty vanilla recommendation, but (the name of this column aside) not every pick can be a home run. What Gore lacks in explosiveness, he should make up for with his usage and pristine matchup in Week 3. Through two weeks the Bengals have allowed 83.50 DK points to opposing running backs, the most in the league by a wide margin. With youngster Devin Singletary injured, Gore logged 18 carries and received two targets against the Giants last week. We should expect a similar workload against Cincy (with Singletary looking extremely questionable) in a game where the Bills are six-point home favorites. If you are a true believer in this spot you can even pair Gore with the Bills D/ST.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 3 Picks

Kenny Golladay - DET @ PHI ($6,600)

This is a 'trifecta' spot for us, as we get a good player - Detroit's Kenny Golladay - with a reasonable price tag that's in a smash-spot matchup. 'BabyTron' has certainly garnered some Calvin Johnson-like attention from Lions QB Matt Stafford so far this season, as he's been targeted 19 times through two games with an aDOT of 15.5 yards. Golladay has turned those targets into 159 yards and two TDs. The Eagles should probably try to get in on the Jalen Ramsey sweepstakes, because this Philly secondary has been perhaps the worst unit in the league at stopping wide receivers. They've relinquished the most DK points in the NFL (116.20) to opposing wideouts through two games. This Philly defense is stout against the run and should funnel the Lions usage into the air this week with Golladay set to be the prime beneficiary.

Christian Kirk - CAR @ ARI ($5,000)

Christian Kirk is a player that was on my radar last season and my interest level skyrocketed when the Cards hired Kliff Kingsbury and then drafted Kyler Murray. Kirk disappointed in Week 1, despite seeing a massive 12 targets in this up-tempo Arizona offense. His stat line looked much better last week when he grabbed six balls on eight targets for 114 yards in a tough matchup against the Ravens. I'm ready to get back on the Kirk train this week against the Panthers. At first glance, the Carolina pass defense looks solid, but they have shown themselves to be susceptible to slot receivers - Chris Godwin put up an 8/121/1 line on them in Week 2 working primarily from the slot - and Kirk has lined up in the slot on 104 of his 135 snaps this season. Arizona plays at the second-fastest pace in the NFL and it's not hard to envision Kirk getting 10 or so targets in this matchup.

Nelson Agholor - DET @ PHI ($3,600)

Volume, volume, volume. Volume should be your DFS 'Holy Grail' and it's what draws me to Nelson Agholor this week. Even after several years in the league, I'm still not sure if Agholor is even a decent football player, but a heavy workload can help even a bad player become viable in a DFS format. With the slew of injuries that Philly suffered against Atlanta in Week 2, Agholor was thrust into action and was peppered with 11 targets which he converted into eight catches for 107 yards and a TD. He's an injury-dependent play this week, meaning keep an eye on the status of Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson. If they both sit, the former USC Trojan should once again get all the work he can handle at just $3.6k.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 3 Picks

Zach Ertz - DET @ PHI ($5,700)

After being very thrifty at the TE spot for the first two weeks of the season, I'm gonna have to dig between the couch cushions and find some extra cash for the tight ends I like this week. My first priority is Philly's Zach Ertz, who returned to his 'target monster' role in the Eagles offense Sunday night against Atlanta after about half of the Philly pass-catching corps went down with injuries. This is a situation I'm going to monitor up until kickoff Sunday, but as of this writing Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, and Dallas Goedert are all very questionable for Sunday's game against the Lions. As for the matchup itself, it's mediocre at best, as the Lions have been solid against the position, but haven't really faced a pass-catching TE yet. Depending on how the Philly injuries shakeout, Ertz could be in line for another 10-plus target day, which would make him a volume-driven 'must play'.

Evan Engram - NYG @ TB ($5,200)

While Zach Ertz will receive a spike in usage due to some injuries, Evan Engram is heavily targeted each week because the Giants simply have no other talented pass catchers. Engram's target counts through the first two weeks of the season are 14 and eight, which he's cashed in for 164 yards and a TD. The talented tight end gets an upgrade at the QB spot this week with Eli Manning heading to the bench, not to mention a matchup against a Tampa defense that has allowed a catch rate of nearly 74% to opposing tight ends this season.

DraftKings DFS Defenses - Week 3 Picks

New England Patriots - NYJ @ NE ($3,800)

Definitely a 'set it and forget it' play here, but sometimes the obvious play is the right one. I'm always looking to save salary at the volatile D/ST roster spot, but if I'm paying up this week I'm rolling with the Patriots. They are massive home favorites against an offensively challenged Jets squad that is coming off a three-point dud on Monday night and will be forced to rely on their third-string QB. This New England unit is smart, disciplined, and always seems to capitalize on their opponents mistakes, of which there will most likely be many this week.

San Francisco 49ers - PIT @ SF ($3,200)

There's a good chance that Pittsburgh's Mason Rudolph will step in and be a very serviceable NFL quarterback for the Steelers, but he's still in a pretty tough spot this week. Rudolph will be making his first start as a pro for an 0-2 team that's traveling across the country to take on a 49ers defensive front that has been very impressive in 2019. San Fran has reached opposing QBs seven times through two games and has four picks with two defensive TDs. Look for the Niners to apply some relentless pressure on the rookie QB, which could force Rudolph into multiple mistakes.

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