Break The Slate: NFL DFS DraftKings Lineup Picks - Week 15 (Main Slate)

December 19, 2020

Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for Week 15. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.

Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! If you read this article regularly, then you know what we're about here, but if you are a new reader, let me quickly summarize our goals with this article. We'll spend each week discussing a few plays at each position for the DraftKings main slate that can add tournament-winning upside and/or juicy value to our NFL DFS rosters. I'll highlight my favorite players and breakdown my reasoning behind them.

I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL, and I definitely recommend you checking those out. Week 15 is shaping up to be a fun slate and I'm excited to dig in! Remember, the NFL is ever-evolving from week to week, which gives us an opportunity to apply what we've learned on the next slate.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 15. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 15 Picks

Patrick Mahomes - KC @ NO ($7,900)

I rarely write up Mahomes because I feel it goes without saying that he’s an elite option that’s basically matchup proof, but nevertheless, here’s your reminder: 

PATRICK MAHOMES CAN ALWAYS BREAK THE SLATE!

Lamar Jackson - JAX @ BAL ($7,500)

The last time I was heavily invested in Lamar Jackson was Week 5 against the Bengals when he posted 14.5 DK Points. Jackson didn’t look comfortable to me in that game, and as a result, I’ve basically laid off ever since, as the NFL’s reigning MVP has failed to replicate his play from last season. However, Jackson has looked better over Baltimore’s last two, with his rushing output noticeably spiking. He’s ran for 218 yards and three TDs since Week 13, the type of production that was commonplace last year, but has been difficult to come by this season.

He brings that trending production into a true smash spot against Jacksonville this week. This Jags defense is basically horrible in all aspects, ranking 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry and 28th in yards allowed per pass. Jackson appears to be getting his groove back and should have his way with this defense.

Jalen Hurts - PHI @ ARI ($5,900)

I waffled back and forth about whether to include Jalen Hurts in this article last week. I loved the price ($5.1k), but feared the situation (first career start against a good Saints Defense). We can fire Hurts up with a little more confidence this week, as we know more about what we're getting with the Philly rookie. The most notable takeaway from his performance against New Orleans was his 18 rushing attempts - a ridiculously-high total for a QB - that produced 106 yards on the ground. While we can't count on quite that much volume on a weekly basis, Hurts' rushing ability is obviously - at least initially - going to be a prominent tool in his toolbox. His work running the ball significantly raises his DFS floor and he's set to square off against an Arizona defense that's allowing 5.45 yards per carry to opposing QBs, the fourth-highest mark in the NFL. Even though DK has bumped his price from $5.1k to $5.9k, you can argue that he remains underpriced due to his extensive role on the ground.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

The big news at the QB position is Drew Brees' surprising availability for the Saints. I would make the argument that Brees getting the start makes Patrick Mahomes an even better play this week (NO is more likely to put up points and stay in the game with Brees at the helm of the offense). I'm fairly locked in with the highlighted QB plays personally, but Chicago's Mitch Trubisky is a viable (though gag-inducing) value option.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 15 Picks

Derrick Henry - DET @ TEN ($9,500)

All Derrick Henry wanted for Christmas was to play Jacksonville and Detroit in back-to-back weeks. I guess The King gets what The King wants, as Henry is set to face the hapless Lions fresh off an absolute demolition of the Jags last week. The Titans back rumbled for 215 yards and 2 TDs on 26 carries last week, and we can assume it will be more of the same this week against a Lions Defense that - somehow - grades out even worse against the run than Jacksonville. Detroit has allowed the second-most DK Points in the NFL to the RB position and is relinquishing a MASSIVE 4.57 yards per carry to opposing rushers. This is the perfect storm, as Tennessee should be leading throughout in this one and will be very content to feed Henry the ball 25-plus times. 

Jonathan Taylor - HOU @ IND ($7,200)

If we could get a visual chart of the fantasy community’s opinion on Jonathan Taylor throughout the year, it would look like the Rocky Mountains. Everyone was in love with Taylor when the Colts drafted him in the second round of the NFL Draft. His prospects then really shot up when Indy’s incumbent RB, Marlon Mack, went down with a season-ending injury in Week 1. However, the rookie failed to do anything much with the opportunity, and appeared to lack burst and vision, as his fantasy stock plummeted. But a funny thing happened on the way to Taylor becoming Trent Richardson...he actually started producing around Week 11...when the Colts seemed to “recommit” to him by giving him 26 touches against Green Bay. Taylor has responded by posting DK Point totals of 15.4, 22.5, & 33.5 over his last three starts. 

We could argue that the production has been the result of three tremendous matchups, but Taylor once again draws a smash spot against Houston this week. The Texans are ridiculously bad against the run and are the only team in the NFL allowing over FIVE yards per carry this year. The only real concern here is that Nyheim Hines remains an effective back for the Colts and will likely continue to steal some work from Taylor. 

Cam Akers - NYJ @ LAR ($6,600)

At first glance, this feels like a tremendous spot for Cam Akers, a player that's starting to look like a superstar-in-the-making. However, after digging into it, I'm not as in love with Akers in this spot as some will be. The Jets are undoubtedly terrible, but perhaps their lone bright spot has been a defense that ranks eighth in the NFL in DVOA against the run. Yes, Akers has been given the keys to this backfield over the last two weeks, but we are dealing with a coach in Sean McVay that's been extremely unpredictable with his RB rotations, so it wouldn't be surprising to see Darrell Henderson mix in fairly heavily for the Rams if this game gets out of hand.

After reading those thoughts, it's fair if you're wondering, "Why are you recommending Cam Akers then?" Well, I do love Akers' talent level, as well as his receiving ability out of the backfield, which makes him a "very good, but maybe not as awesome as everyone else might think" play for me. This is also a tough slate for the RB position and - barring a late-week injury situation - there's very little to love as we go down the salary scale, so Akers is certainly a viable play that brings real upside to the table at $6.6k.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Drew Brees' availability really reverberates throughout several positions on this slate and Alvin Kamara is perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the news. Kamara's $7.4k price tag reflects his "expected performance with Taysom Hill at QB", which makes him very underpriced for what he should be able to do with Brees. Tampa's Ronald Jones isn't expected to play this week, which throws Leonard Fournette into the mix. Atlanta's run defense has been sneaky solid as of late - so this isn't the smash spot that it might appear to be - but we're pretty starved for value on this slate and Fournette is a viable salary saver at just $4.7k. Two injury situations I'll be keeping an eye on...Arizona's Chase Edmonds is Questionable and Kenyan Drake's value would jump if Edmonds can't go. Miami's backfield situation is also up in the air, as Myles Gaskin is still on the COVID list and Salvon Ahmed is Questionable but trending in the right direction. Ahmed would be a great value option if he's able to suit up.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 15 Picks

Tennessee Titans WRs - DET @ TEN

A.J. Brown  ($7,600) & Corey Davis ($5,800)

Sometimes you can't pick just one! There's so much to love about these Titans pass catchers this week against the Lions, as A.J. Brown brings legitimate slate-breaking upside to the table, while the resilient Corey Davis is a tremendous salary saver at just $5.8k. Detroit ranks dead last in the NFL in both yards per target (9.38) and catch-rate percentage (71.2% - the only team in the league allowing a catch percentage over 70%!) allowed to the WR position. Not only is this Lions secondary terrible, but they are also banged up, as both Desmond Trufant and Jeff Okudah are on IR.

The only drawback is that Detroit is also absolutely horrible against the run and the Titans have a guy by the name of Derrick Henry in the backfield. It's easy to envision Tennessee controlling this one throughout and just handing Henry the ball 30 times at the expense of Brown & Davis. However, betting on these high-upside pass catchers instead of Henry is a really interesting contrarian route that you can take in GPPs.

Brandon Aiyuk - SF @ DAL ($6,300) 

I highlighted Brandon Aiyuk in this article last week, but despite the risk of being redundant - and a $900 DK price increase - I’m still on the Niners rookie in Week 15. Aiyuk overcame a matchup that we knew was difficult against Washington last week to post 119 yards and 10 catches on 16 targets. It’s that volume - in addition to his talent level - that’s led him to an average of 21.74 DK Points per game over his last five starts. While last week’s matchup was a tough one, this week's isn't...as he’s in a true smash spot against the Dallas Cowboys. Not only is the Cowboys secondary currently banged up, they’ve been consistently bad throughout the season. Dallas ranks 25th in the NFL in DK Points allowed to the WR position and they are relinquishing a juicy average of 8.78 yards per target to opposing receivers.

T.Y. Hilton - HOU @ IND ($5,500)

It admittedly feels “point chasey” to go after TY Hilton this week - and we do have to think there will be some negative TD regression incoming at some point - however, the Colts veteran WR has a combination of price and matchup in Week 15 that’s almost impossible to ignore. Despite posting DK Point totals of 28.0 (against Houston) and 25.6 over Indy’s last two games, Hilton still sits at just $5.5k. He’ll also see one of the better matchups in football against a Texans secondary that has been routinely torched in the absence of Bradley Roby. Hilton himself lit them up for 110 yards and a TD on eight catches in Week 13, and Houston has allowed six opposing WRs to post 25 or more DK Points against them this year. There's a strong chance that "The Ghost" once again spooks Houston's struggling journeyman corner Vernon Hargreaves this week. 

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 15 Picks

Travis Kelce - KC @ NO ($8,000)

It's pretty simple...if Travis Kelce is playing on the Main Slate, he's going to be in consideration for me. Even though Kelce's price is all the way up to $8k, he's basically the only trustworthy option at the TE position. He heads into a Week 15 matchup against the Saints on the heels of back-to-back 30.6 DK Point performances (Kelce has eerily went for exactly 8/136/1 in EACH of his last two!) and like his KC teammates, Patrick Mahomes & Tyreek Hill, he's basically matchup proof.

Mark Andrews - JAX @ BAL ($5,500)

As of late, I've basically been deploying a "pay all the way up for Kelce or completely punt the TE position" strategy...but Mark Andrews is kinda the natural salary-saver pivot from Kelce, as he's a well-known player in a great matchup that's $2.5k cheaper. I noticed that Andrews' best DFS performance of the season was 22.8 DK Points against Cleveland in Week 1. That's roughly what Kelce averages per game, so make no mistake, saving the salary comes at a cost. That said, Andrews is in a great spot against Jacksonville, a defense that's terrible in every facet and has allowed 10 TDs to the TE position this season, which is the second-most in the NFL.

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