X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Boston Red Sox Lineup Analysis: 2014 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep

Noah Musman prepares you for the 2014 fantasy baseball season with MLB analysis on the Boston Red Sox hitters and projections, previewing their lineup and fantasy value.

The 2013 Red Sox led the majors in Runs, On Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage, wOBA, RC+. By virtually every offensive metric, from basic to advanced, the Sox fielded the best offense in baseball and it wasn’t that close. So why was it that they had only 2 players that ranked among the top 5 at their positions? Well, there’s a disturbing trend for fantasy owners among the more progressive MLB front offices and that’s to build teams with “depth”. Rather than splurge for high priced free agents, the Sox have stockpiled a parade of productive major league hitters complemented by quality bench bats which enable the team to play matchups and give their veterans regular days off.   Would you believe that only 1 Boston position player appeared in as many as 140 games last year? With most of their key offensive contributors back for a defense of their title, the Sox should continue to boast one of the most prolific hitting attacks in the game, but expect again for the whole to be greater than the sum of the parts. Let’s take a closer look at how it all breaks down by position.

 

2014 Red Sox Hitters - Fantasy Baseball Impact

Catcher - AJ Pierzynski / David Ross

Gone is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, arrived is the mercurial AJ Pierzynski. AJ had a productive year in 2013, but with veteran David Ross in the mix, I wouldn't expect him to catch more than 120 games. And for a guy who posted a sub.300 obp last season, that’s simply not enough to be fantasy relevant.

rotoballer-fantasy-baseball-advice-david-ortiz

 

First Base - Mike Napoli

Napoli came into 2013 as a major injury risk, having had to tear up his original 3 year contract and renegotiate a 1 year deal at a fraction of the price just months before opening day. As it turned out, Napoli remained completely healthy and produced as the Red Sox hoped he would. He slugged 23 home runs, drove in 92 runs, posted an impressive .842 OPS, and perhaps most importantly, played a very good first base. We don’t care much about defense in fantasy baseball but Napoli’s glove work allowed John Farrell to play him in 139 games. To top it all off, Nap won the hearts of Red Sox fans forever with an epic post World Series bender that had him spotted manning the bar at local watering holes, walking shirtless down Boylston street (cigarette in mouth), and guzzling Fireball straight from the bottle. Well the beard is back for another round at the Fens, but will 2014 be as successful? I’m thinking not. And it’s not just an offseason partying with BU undergrads that I’m worried about. Digging deeper into Nap’s 2013 numbers we see that his walk rate declined, strikeout rate increased, and his BABIP was an unsustainably high at .367 (.310 career). Given that he’s entering his age 32 season, its hard to expect Napoli to improve much in 2014. And with Righty killer Mike Carp looming behind him, I wouldn't be surprised to see Napoli get a few more off days this coming year. As a power bat hitting in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball, Nap’s certainly worth drafting for a utility spot, but given his age and peripherals, in combination with the depth at his position, he simply should not be considered more than a 3rd tier fantasy first baseman.

 

2nd Base - Dustin Pedroia

By his own lofty standards, Dustin had a bit of a down year in 2013. While he was still a top 5 fantasy 2nd baseman, he managed only 9 home runs after hitting 15 in 2012, and 21 in 2011. To the untrained eye it may look as though Pedroia is in decline having recently crossed the wrong side of 30. And that’s certainly a possibility. But it’s important to note that Pedroia played all of 2013 with a tear in the Ulnar Collateral Ligament of his left thumb. An injury that many have speculated forced Pedroia to change his approach at the plate and prevented the laser show from really taking off (his FB % dropped to 28% after sitting in the mid to high 30%s for his career) . Dustin had surgery on the thumb in early November and all indications are that he should be completely healed for spring training. It's hard to call a top 5 guy a bounce back candidate, but I wouldn't be surprised to see his homers climb back toward the mid teens. Either way, after Robbie Cano, Dustin’s about a safe an option as you can find at 2nd base.

 

Shortstop - Xander Bogaerts;  3rd Base - Will Middlebrooks

 We covered Bogaerts and Middlebroks in depth in the offseason team review here. In short, I’m bullish on Bogaerts, bearish on Jenny Dell’s worse half, and hoping Stephen Drew finds himself elsewhere in 2014.

 

Left Field - Daniel Nava / Jonny Gomes

37 doubles, 18 home Runs, 93 Runs, 101 RBI. No those weren’t Matt Holliday’s numbers in 2013, those were the combined statistics of Red Sox left fielders last year. Merge Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava into one player and you’ve got a top 15 outfielder. As we all know, fantasy baseball doesn't work like that. Nava and Gomes figure to be locked into your classic left/right platoon with Nava getting the nod against righties, and Gomes stepping in against southpaws. John Farrell actually strayed from this approach for much of the postseason last year playing Gomes against the likes of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Adam Wainwright because he thought the team had a different “feel” and “personality” when Gomes was in the lineup. Those are the kind of theories that drive the more analytical baseball fans nuts (not to mention the Red Sox front office) and I’d expect that Farrell reverts to a more conventional approach in 2014. And while it would be easy to say that the platoon prevents either player from carrying any value, I actually think Nava makes for an intriguing deep league late round flier. At the age of 30 he’s no prospect, but he’s hit at every level, has shown a disciplined approach (5th in AL in OBP last year), and with the departure of Jacoby Ellsbury, has the potential to see some time in the leadoff spot where he could rack up runs in bunches (as he did last year when Jacoby went on the DL). So long as John Farrell doesn't go Jimy Williams on us, I’d expect Nava to be a pretty useful bench bat to deploy against righties and potentially a bit more.

 

Center Field - Jackie Bradley Jr. / Grady Sizemore

As noted in the offseason team review, as recently as 1 week ago, it looked like Jackie Bradley had a clear path to an everyday job for the Red Sox in 2014 and beyond. Of course, since that time, the Red Sox went out and signed former Indians star Grady Sizemore to a major league deal. It’s impossible to know what Grady will bring to the table but the possibility certainly exists that he earns himself some meaningful playing time and eats into Jackie's value. That said, you probably weren't drafting Bradley as a starter anyway, so continue to think of him as a late round flier with some long term potential. As far as Grady goes, your guess is as good as mine. His injury history has been well documented (hasn't played in the majors since 2011 and hasn't played a full season since 2008), but he was an absolute stud for a 4 year span to start his career and is just 31. Keep an eye on him in spring training. Stranger things have happened.

 

Right Field - Shane Victorino

When the dust settled from last year’s offseason, several pundits declared Victorino’s 3 year, $39 million dollar deal to be the single worst contract handed out in the 2012/13 offseason. 6 regular season Wins Above Replacement and 2 postseason series defining bases loaded hits later, those pundits looked pretty foolish. Despite missing 40 games, Victorino rebounded quite nicely from a disappointing 2012. He had 15 HRs, 82 RBIs, and 21 Stolen Bases while posting a very respectable .294/.351/.451 triple slash line. And while those numbers won’t overwhelm, what was most intriguing about Victorino’s season was a 2nd half in which he hit 11 of his 15 hr and slugged over .500. A switch hitter who had perennially struggled from the left side - his right handed OPS exceeded his left handed OPS by 250 (250!) points EACH of the 3 years prior - Victorino scrapped his left handed bat in August on account of some lingering injuries that apparently hurt his swing from that side. The results were amazing. Shane mashed more home runs off righties (6) in 38 games in 2013 then he did in 146 games in 2012. Was this simply a small sample size outlier or should Victorino have been hitting exclusively right handed for his entire career? Its hard to say, but given the historical disparity between his right handed and left handed stats, I think there’s a pretty good chance his improvement against righties from the opposite side wasn’t simply a fluke. Complicating matters is the fact that the Flyin Hawaiian was recently quoted as saying he intends to return to switch hitting in 2014. I’ve yet to hear anyone from the Red Sox brass comment on the situation directly, but I’d be hard pressed to believe that they’d allow Shane to continue wasting at bats from the left side. As we move toward spring training, this is certainly a situation worth monitoring.  There’s some risk with Victorino given that he recently turned 33 and is still recovering from offseason wrist surgery (though expected to be ready for opening day), but he should nonetheless be targeted as a #3 outfielder with top 30 potential.

 

DH - David Ortiz

Remember the Spring of 2009 when Oritz hit just 1 home run through the first 2 months and everyone thought he was done? I don’t either. David Ortiz is a Bad Man. He was again one of the best hitters in 2013 (30 HR, 103 RBI, .309/.395/.564) and showed almost no signs of slowing down in his age 37 season. Hell, he peaked in the World Series batting a video game esque .688 with a 1.948 OPS. Ortiz is no longer the 50 home run threat he was in his prime, but he appears to have sacrificed power for contact, reducing his strikeout rate to below 15% each of the last 3 years (18% career). Aging vets like Ortiz tend to be undervalued by fantasy players fearing that they will all of a sudden fall off a cliff. I do envision some regression from Ortiz in 2014, along with a few more days off, but it would be foolish to bet against the guy. There will probably be a good 30 or so hitters chosen before him and there’s a real chance Papi outperforms 20 of them.

 

Next week, we’ll dive into the Sox pitching staff and their 2014 prospects.

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF