Biggest Wide Receiver Surprises of 2022 - Fantasy Football Year In Review

Phil Clark breaks down the biggest surprises at wide receiver from the 2022 fantasy football season. Who has seen their ADP affected heading into 2023?

All fantasy managers who constructed rosters during the 2022 regular season were required to maintain enormous flexibility while navigating the unwelcome challenges that occurred through injuries, fluctuations in opportunities, and other unplanned developments. As we advance through the initial weeks of the offseason, some of you have seamlessly transitioned into the planning process for your 2023 drafts while others have already begun restructuring your dynasty rosters.

Regardless of which format you are involved with as we transition into 2023 roster preparation and management, the daily content at RotoBaller will provide you with the resources that you need to achieve your championship aspirations. That includes this article, which will examine the most surprising performances that transpired at the wide receiver position during 2022.

Some of these receivers outperformed expectations while others delivered results that failed to match the numbers that had originally been projected. Wide receivers whose seasons were impacted by protracted injuries will be avoided in this article. However, players who missed a percentage of games and experienced surprisingly low usage and production when they were in the lineup will be included in this review.

Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.

Exceeding Expectations

DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

The 6 for 6 special is now available in your local Dallas end zone@DeVontaSmith_6 | #PHIvsDAL | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/8BOf6uk9H0

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) December 24, 2022

To be clear, it was not surprising that Smith’s numbers rose during 2022 when contrasted with the results that he delivered during his 2021 rookie season. His enticing abilities to create separation and function as a playmaker are unquestioned, as is his pedigree as the 10th player to be selected during the 2021 NFL Draft.

However, even though it was reasonable to expect a statistical ascension, the degree to which his numbers expanded despite Philadelphia’s addition of A.J. Brown was an unforeseen development.

Smith had secured a 23% target share in 2021 while finishing 32nd in targets (104/6.1 per game), 26th in receiving yards (916/53.9 per game), and 34th in receptions (64/3.8 per game). He also finished fourth in targets, fourth in receptions, and third in receiving yards among members of his 2021 rookie class.

🚨TRADE 🚨

The Titans are trading WR A.J. Brown to the @Eagles in exchange for picks 18 and 101, per multiple reports. pic.twitter.com/x8oGlSMOnu

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) April 29, 2022

Smith was being drafted as a WR3 (70/WR28) even before Philadelphia secured Brown during last year's blockbuster trade with Tennessee. The addition of Brown lowered expectations even further, which was underscored by the negative impact on Smith's ADP (92/WR39) after it became official that Brown would be infused into the Eagles' aerial attack.

Smith exceeded offseason projections while soaring to 14th overall in points per game scoring (15.0), and WR9 in total points. He also attained a 27% target share, vaulted to 13th with 136 targets (8.0 per game), and captured 8+ targets in 13 different matchups. That included a four-game sequence from Weeks 14-17 in which he garnered the league’s fifth-highest target share (30.6%), finished third in targets (41/10.3 per game), third in receiving yards (418/104.5 per game), and soared to second in point-per-game scoring (21.7).

He also vaulted to eighth in receiving yards (1,196/70.4 per game) from Weeks 1-18, was ninth in receptions (95/5.6 per game), and was also 18th in air yards (1,315).

Smith also finished second in offensive snaps (1,032), ran 538 routes, was targeted on 25.3% of his routes, and averaged 2.22 yards per route run.

Look for the Eagles to generate more 1-on-1 opportunities for @DeVontaSmith_6 💪@DariusJButler | @gregcosell | @NFLMatchup pic.twitter.com/U50RbEmvmp

— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) January 20, 2023

Smith and Brown have both proven that they can thrive in Philadelphia's aerial attack while operating as Jalen Hurts’ top two receiving weapons. Smith should minimally function as a high-end WR2 during 2023 and could reach the periphery of WR1 status.

Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars 

Christian Kirk signed a four-year, $72 million contract with Jacksonville near the onset of free agency that elicited an immediate and unfavorable reaction from many observers. However, he ultimately delivered results that not only surpassed his previous numbers but also quelled any additional criticism surrounding his multi-year deal with the Jaguars.

Hard to defend this.#TENvsJAX on ESPN/ABC pic.twitter.com/m3PuUP2ak1

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) January 8, 2023

Kirk entered the 2022 regular season with career highs of 108 targets, 77 receptions, 982 receiving yards, and six touchdowns which were all registered during his four seasons with the Cardinals. He also averaged 90 targets (6.4 per game), 59 receptions (4.2 per game), 726 receiving yards (51.8 per game), and 4.3 touchdowns from 2018-2021, while his points per game averages ranged from 12.9 to 10.3 during his tenure with Arizona (12.9/12.2/10.5/10.3).

However, Kirk commandeered a 24.6% target share during his first season with the Jaguars, while finishing 15th overall with 133 targets (7.8 per game). He also captured 10+ in four different matchups while collecting 8+ in 10 games. Kirk also finished 14th in receptions (84/4.9 per game), and 13th in receiving yards (1,108/65.2 per game) – including nine games in which he registered 75+.

.@Trevorlawrencee hits @ckirk in stride and we’re on the board!#TENvsJAX on ESPN/ABC pic.twitter.com/zKoqG6hJ0j

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) January 8, 2023

Kirk also rose to sixth overall in routes run (572), was targeted on 23.3% of his routes, and averaged 1.94 yards per route run. He was also 15th in yards before catch (737), 19th in yards after catch (371), and 22nd in air yards (1,211). Kirk also completed the year in a tie for eighth with eight touchdowns and was 20th overall in points per game (14.2).

Calvin Ridley was traded to Jacksonville on November 1 and will resurface at age 28 for his first snaps since Week 7 of the 2021 regular season. However, Kirk will maintain an integral role in a surging Jacksonville offense as he operates with the steadily improving Trevor Lawrence. He should also sustain WR2 status for fantasy managers during 2023.

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

Brandon Aiyuk managers STAND UP 🔥 pic.twitter.com/9s9rQ5YawD

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) January 20, 2023

Aiyuk was selected as a WR4 during the 2022 draft process (ADP 96/WR39), which represented a notable decline from his draft position one year earlier (63/WR26). It also positioned him to outperform those diminished expectations, which had developed as the result of multiple factors that emerged during 2021.

That includes Aiyuk’s numbers that were delivered during the first half of that 2021 season, which was lower than anticipated by anyone who had utilized their sixth-round selection in order to secure him. He was relegated to a microscopic 8.7% target share from Weeks 1-7 while averaging 1.5 receptions, 16.0 yards, and 4.3 points per game during that span. He also languished at WR94 before disengaging from Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse.

Aiyuk’s target share rose to 22.2% from Weeks 8-18, while his averages expanded to 4.3 receptions and 66.4 yards per game. That still resulted in disappointing season-long averages of 4.9 targets/3.3 receptions/48.6 yards per game.

Enthusiasm for Aiyuk was tempered even further entering 2022 due to uncertainty surrounding how targets would be distributed by Trey Lance, while the continued presence of Deebo Samuel and George Kittle ensured that they would also commandeer a respectable percentage of opportunities. However, Aiyuk established career-best numbers in a collection of categories, including targets, receptions, receiving yards, red zone targets, touchdowns, and fantasy points.

This enabled him to surpass preseason prognostications that projected him to continue operating as a WR3 for fantasy managers. Aiyuk completed his third season at WR15 while finishing 22nd among all receivers with an average of 13.4 points per game.

Double down on 11! @THE2ERA

📺: #SFvsLV on FOX
📱: NFL+ // https://t.co/KTh0i4oaLh pic.twitter.com/OUB8NtCyYL

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 1, 2023

He also finished 25th overall with 114 targets (6.7 per game), while collecting 7+ in seven of his 11 matchups. Aiyuk also secured a team-high 23.4% target share from Weeks 6-17, while ascending to 19th with 82 targets (7.5 per game) and collecting 7+ in seven of his 11 matchups.

He also finished 12th overall in targets per route run (30.4%) and receptions (47/5.2 per game), 13th in yards per route run (2.64), 15th in receiving yards (719/65.4 per game), and vaulted into a tie for third with seven touchdowns during that sequence.

The prospects of drafting Aiyuk should evoke a greater level of enthusiasm during the 2023 draft season as he has demonstrated that he can retain an integral role in San Francisco’s aerial efforts regardless of who is operating under center.

Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns 

For the sake of clarity, Cooper has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to operate as a highly-productive receiving weapon at the NFL level, while also providing fantasy managers with an effective resource for their rosters.

Among Cooper’s accomplishments entering 2022 was his ability to finish 11th among all wide receivers in both receptions 239/4.2 per game) and receiving yardage (3,168/55.6 per game) during his three full seasons with the Cowboys (2019-2021) while also finishing ninth in touchdowns (21), and ascending into the top 15 in scoring twice during that sequence.

🚨AMARI COOPER IS HEADED TO CLEVELAND🚨

Who won the trade? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/6nZIcOxRBp

— PFF (@PFF) March 12, 2022

However, his numbers during 2022 were still surprising after he outperformed the diminished expectations that emerged following a trade that jettisoned him to Cleveland. Cooper’s ADP had placed him in Round 5 prior to the trade (55/WR22), but his draft position plunged to the end of Round 7 (84/WR37) after he was dispatched to the Browns.

The decline was fueled by concern surrounding Cooper’s ability to sustain the level of production that he routinely delivered as a Cowboy after his extraction from the Dallas offense. Not only was Cooper transitioning from Dak Prescott to an attack that would initially be spearheaded by Jacoby Brissett, but he would also be functioning in an offense that had ranked seventh in run play percentage during 2021 (46%).

Amari Cooper with a Touchdown 🐘🔥pic.twitter.com/Aj0LzVB7UE

— Alabama DieHards (@DiehardsAlabama) November 20, 2022

However, Cooper vaulted to ninth overall in targets during 11 games with Brissett guiding Cleveland's offense (93/8.5 per game/26.6% share), including six games with 10+. He was also fifth in air yards (1,172), eighth in air yards share (39.5%), 12th in both receptions (57/5.2 per game) and receiving yards (792/72 per game), 13th in targets per route run (26.7%), and 16th in yards per route run (2.28).

Cooper did not sustain the same level of production after Watson emerged under center in Week 13, as his per-game averages dropped in targets (8.5/6.5 targets), receiving yards (72/61.3), and receptions (5.2/3.5). He also failed to exceed four receptions in five of his six games while operating with Watson, after he had eclipsed 4+ during six of his 11 matchups with Brissett spearheading the attack.

He ultimately finished sixth overall in air yards share (39.6%), eighth in air yards (1,606), 11th in receiving yards (1,160/68.2 per game), 16th in both targets (132/7.8 per game), and 18th in both receptions (78/4.6 per game) and targets per route run (26).

Cooper should continue to operate as Cleveland’s primary receiver. However, his prospects of replicating his 2022 production this season will be dependent on his ability to develop better chemistry with Watson.

Delivering Disappointment

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers          

Any review of wide receivers whose numbers were the source of consternation should include Johnson, whose significant decline in production presented fantasy managers with recurring frustration during the season.

Johnson was seized in Round 4 during draft season (48/WR21) in the aftermath of a 2021 regular season in which he finished eighth among all wide receivers with an average of 17.2 points per game. He also soared into a tie for second with 169 targets and was one of just three receivers who averaged 10+ per game (10.6).

What a catch by Diontae Johnson. Touchdown, @steelers! #HereWeGo

📺: #PITvsBUF on CBS
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/gsj0VgqdtY

— NFL (@NFL) September 12, 2021

His extensive involvement in the distribution of targets from Ben Roethlisberger had also propelled him to fifth overall in receptions (107/6.7 per game). He also led the league in routes run (731), finished ninth in receiving yards (1,161/72.6 per game), and was also 12th in touchdowns (eight).

Johnson’s target share declined slightly from 28.4% in 2021 to 26.8% last season. He also finished sixth with 147 targets (8.6 per game) and was also third in routes run (594). However, he also completed the season with a list of numbers that were more problematic for fantasy managers.

His averages in receptions per game (6.7/5.1) and yards per game (72.6/51.9) both declined, as did his yards after catch (543/236), receptions of 20+ (14/7), and games of 100+ yards (3/0). Johnson’s points per game average also decreased from the aforementioned 17.2 during 2021 to 10.6 last season and plummeted further to 8.5 from Weeks 4-12. Johnson also concluded the year with a bewildering lack of touchdowns, as he failed to score in any of his 17 matchups during the season. This established two unwanted NFL records as he accumulated the most targets and the most receptions by a wide receiver without generating a touchdown reception.

Diontae Johnson just broke potentially the most unbreakable record in professional football.

147 targets with ZERO touchdowns. No one else is within 20 targets of him on the historical leaderboard with no scoring plays.

Unbelievable stuff. pic.twitter.com/8cNCBFJCr0

— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) January 10, 2023

Johnson’s ability to sustain his 2021 production was undone by a troublesome blend of an uninventive offensive approach, and a first-year signal caller. Kenny Pickett should perform more effectively during his second season, although the Steeler offense may not undergo the offseason transformation that appears necessary in order for the team’s aerial attack to improve significantly. George Pickens is also lurking as a candidate to confiscate Johnson's WR1 responsibilities when the season launches.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

Optimism was escalating throughout the 2022 offseason surrounding the arrival of Russell Wilson in Denver, and the surging expectations also encompassed the Broncos’ receiving weaponry.  While it was unclear whether Sutton or Jerry Jeudy would become the primary beneficiary of Wilson’s insertion under center, the fervor for Sutton was sufficient to launch his ADP into Round 3 during the draft season (35/WR15).

Fantasy managers were also incentivized to seize him at that point of their drafts even as Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, and D.K. Metcalf were among the plethora of receivers that remained available for inclusion on rosters. If you are among the managers who secured Sutton, it was justifiable to believe that Wilson could maximize Sutton’s potential to flourish as a consistent downfield option, which would propel him to the most prolific numbers of his career.

The initial results were encouraging as Sutton ascended to third in air yards from Weeks 1-5  (558), and was positioned inside the top 10 in targets (46/9.1 per game), receptions (29/5.8 per game), receiving yards (417/83.4 per game), and air yards share (39.8%). Sutton was also targeted on 24.7% of his routes and averaged 2.24 yards per route run.

However, Sutton was limited to 2.0 receptions and 16.7 yards per game from Weeks 6-8, while he failed to exceed 54 yards in six of his final 10 games. Sutton also averaged just 3.5 receptions and 41.2 yards per game from Weeks 6-18, while he also averaged 1.40 yards per route run, registered a 55.6% catch rate, and was limited to one touchdown.

He plummeted to 61st overall in point-per-game scoring during that span (8.2) while his average was nearly doubled by Jeudy (15.5). Jeudy also led the Broncos in targets (71/7.1 per game), receptions (53/5.3 per game), receiving yards (736/73.6 per game), and touchdowns (four) during those matchups.

The Broncos will experience another offseason transformation and Sean Payton’s offensive acumen could conceivably elevate Sutton’s diminished stock. However, the latest installment in a series of disappointing seasons has increased the likelihood that Sutton will never fulfill the expectations that have existed since Denver secured him in Round 2 of the 2018 NFL Draft.

Elijah Moore, New York Jets

Moore became an intriguing option for many fantasy managers prior to his 2021 rookie season due to the combination of his enticing skills and the Jets’ decision to seize him with the 34th overall selection of the 2021 NFL Draft.

Moore only averaged 2.7 receptions/33.8 yards per game from Weeks 1-6, but he began accumulating favorable results as the season progressed. Moore surged to sixth among all wide receivers in targets (45/9.0 per game) from Weeks 9-13, was third in air yards (518), seventh in receiving yards (392/78.4 per game), and vaulted into the league lead with five touchdowns during that span.

A quad injury prematurely derailed what had become a promising rookie season. However, Moore’s statistical rise supplied managers with motivation to draft him as a WR3 with an ADP that was amazingly 68 slots higher than Garrett Wilson during the 2022 draft season (79/WR33), (147/WR58).

Unfortunately, for anyone who invested in Moore at his ADP, he concluded his second season with per-game averages of 4.1 targets/2.3 receptions/27.9 yards per game - after averaging 7.0 targets/3.9 receptions/48.9 yards during 2021. He was also limited to one touchdown after generating five as a rookie.

Moore had launched his second season by soaring to second overall in routes run (146) while averaging 7.0 targets/4.0 receptions from Weeks 1-3. However, a production-inhibiting combination of Zach Wilson’s deficiencies, and a massive drop in targets. It also fueled an enormous decline in his numbers during Weeks 4-12 (2.1 targets/1.1 receptions/20.7 yards per game), and led to Moore’s public dissatisfaction with his lack of opportunities

🚨 Unhappy with his role with the New York Jets, WR Elijah Moore would like to play elsewhere. pic.twitter.com/fkFVOE8SGh

— 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬 (@sportingnews) October 20, 2022

This included a one-catch, 11-yard outing in Week 5, followed by a forgettable Week 6 matchup when he failed to register a target despite attaining a 58% snap share. He also failed to exceed two receptions in nine of his final 12 matchups and did not surpass 18 receiving yards in eight of those contests.

Of all the eye-popping stats/factoids today, this one is hard to understand:

Elijah Moore: 0 targets. #Jets

— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) October 17, 2022

The Jets have replaced former offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur with Nathaniel Hackett and will endeavor to resolve their lingering dilemma under center during the upcoming weeks. - which should be beneficial to Moore. Wilson has commandeered New York’s WR1 responsibilities, but Moore remains capable of delivering respectable results as the team’s WR2. Particularly if he is operating predominantly from the slot.

Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders

Renfrow was sidelined during seven matchups of the 2022 regular season. However, it is his unexpectedly low usage and output during the games in which he was running routes for Las Vegas that vaulted him among the biggest disappointments of 2022.

Renfrow entered last season having assembled the most prolific numbers of his career during 2021. He averaged 15.2 points per game, which placed him 18th overall while he also rose to 12th with an average of 16.9 points per game from Weeks 9-18.

Hunter Renfrow's route running is ridiculous 🤧 pic.twitter.com/813yBllVaP

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 15, 2021

He also eviscerated his previous career highs in numerous categories, while vaulting to eighth in both receptions (103/6.1 per game) and yards after catch (452), 17th in targets (128/7.5 per game), and 19th in receiving yards (1,038/61.1 per game).

He also finished fourth with 13 targets inside the 10-yard line, was targeted on 24.4% of his routes, secured a 21.3% target share, collected 8+ targets in 10 different matchups, and generated nine touchdowns.

However, the addition of Davante Adams and the arrival of Josh McDaniels fueled a transformation in the Raiders’ passing offense during the offseason. It also negatively impacted Renfrow’s involvement as he operated in the reconstructed attack.

Hunter Renfrow's first target comes with 3:55 left in the third quarter. Incomplete. #Raiders

— Adam Hill (@AdamHillLVRJ) September 11, 2022

Renfrow’s target share dropped to 15.5% during 2022. He also exceeded four targets in just four different contests, while only accomplishing it twice after Week 2. He also averaged 5.0 targets, 3.6 receptions, and a career-worst 33 yards per game while manufacturing just two touchdowns. Renfrow was also targeted on 18.5% of his routes, averaged 1.25 yards per route run, and his scoring dropped to just 7.9 points per game.

The universal decline in Renfrow’s numbers on a per-game basis warrant concern. It is understandable that he trailed Adams in the primary receiving categories, but his per-game averages also dwelled below Mack Hollins in targets (5.5/5.0) and yards per game (40.6/33,0).

Even after the Raiders’ nebulous situation under center has been resolved, Renfrow’s decreased role with McDaniels as the architect of the Las Vegas offense should preclude him from approaching the career-best numbers that he achieved prior to 2022.

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