MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/16/2025)

August 16, 2025

Zach Thompson's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/16/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Alex Bregman, Andrew Vaughn, Giancarlo Stanton, and Hunter Goodman.

Players' Weekend got off to a flying start on Friday with some great matchups and memorable series openers. On Saturday, the full weekend of fun continues. Five afternoon matchups gett things underway, including a few matchups of playoff hopefuls and a few divisional throwdowns. Ten more games are on the schedule under the lights with some late divisional action from the AL and NL West to close out the night.

Throughout the slate, there are some very juicy matchups to attack for home run props. Homer-happy venues are in play with Sutter Health Park and Coors Field on the nighttime slate, and the generally warm weather should set up great environments for power. The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. Another key factor to consider is the betting odds. In this article, we typically attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. For the most part, we avoid obvious plays, especially since I like to use the plays in a round robin format at a small unit size. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, August 16, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/16/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Friday, August 15:

• Alex Bregman, Boston Red Sox
• Andrew Vaughn, Milwaukee Brewers
• Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
• Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies

Alex Bregman OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+310 DraftKings)

The Red Sox won in dramatic fashion on Friday with a walk-off on a single from Trevor Story, and on Saturday, they'll look to keep rolling as they take on Cal Quantrill. Bregman has been a key addition to Boston's lineup and has supplemented the young core beautifully. He should be set up in a good spot to go yard on Saturday afternoon.

Bregman has 16 homers in his 76 games this season, while hitting .299 with a .393 wOBA. He is on pace to set career highs with a 46.8% hard-hit rate, an 8.9% barrel rate, and an average exit velocity of 90.7 miles per hour. Bregman had a pair of homers in Houston earlier this week, returning to where his career began with a bang (or two):

Alex Bregman - Boston Red Sox (16)
pic.twitter.com/Dpfg8aRFTj

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) August 13, 2025

Bregman has collected five of his 16 homers since the All-Star break with a hard-hit rate just under 45% and a .387 wOBA. He hasn't exactly smashed at Fenway Park like many expected when he signed with Boston, hitting just five of his 16 homers at home, but he still has a great swing for the park and brings plenty of power potential whenever he's at home.

He has also done most of his damage when facing righties. Of his 16 homers, 14 have come against righties, so he'll be on the strong side of those splits against starter Cal Quantrill.

Quantrill has allowed 16 homers in his 23 starts, and 12 of those have been hit by righties. Righties have a .316 batting average against him on the road with six homers and a .374 wOBA. He has allowed four homers in his last four starts over just 18 1/3 innings. He's held lefties to a .198 batting average this season, but righties have roughed him up enough that I think Bregman is a very solid pick to go yard on Saturday afternoon at Fenway.

Andrew Vaughn OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 DraftKings)

Just before 7:00 p.m. ET, the Brewers look to keep rolling as they go for their 14th straight win, which would set a franchise record. After rallying to beat the Reds in the series opener on Friday, they'll take on Zack Littell on Saturday, who will be making his third start since being traded to the Reds from the Rays.

I'm taking another mid-season trade acquisition to go yard off Littell on Saturday and taking Andrew Vaughn to continue his incredible run with the Brew Crew. Vaughn was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, but he couldn't quite get into a rhythm with the White Sox. He played over 120 games for them each of the last four years and was solid at times but seldom spectacular. In June, the White Sox traded him to the Brewers in exchange for Aaron Civale, who requested a trade rather than work out of the bullpen.

Vaughn was actually playing in Triple-A for the Charlotte Knights at the time of the trade after being sent back down to the minors. He stayed at that level for a few weeks after the trade and played for the Nashville Sounds. On July 7, Vaughn returned to the majors and started his storybook run with the Brewers.

In his 29 games since his promotion, Vaughn is hitting .343 with nine homers, a wOBA over .430, and a wRC+ over 185. He has been a huge addition to the heart of the order and seems ready to realize the ceiling that made him such a high draft pick.

Andrew Vaughn makes it a four-run inning with his NINTH Brewers HR pic.twitter.com/iiAnlmAB4V

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) August 15, 2025

Vaughn has two homers in his last three games and has hit 11 of his 14 homers on the season against righties like Littell.

While Littell has decent numbers overall, he has still struggled giving up home runs and begins this start tied for the major league lead with 27 homers allowed in his 24 starts this season. Righties have hit 15 of those 27 homers and have a .320 wOBA against him.

Most of Littell's homers allowed were at George M. Steinbrenner Field, his previous home park, and he'll be making his first home start at Great American Ball Park on Saturday night. The forecast calls for warm weather with the wind blowing out, so it should be a favorable environment for offense. It could be another high-scoring game like Friday's 10-8 win for the Brewers that featured three Milwaukee homers, including Vaughn's.

Vaughn will be facing Littell for the first time, but he'll have multiple splits in his favor. His recent momentum and favorable spot make him a strong option for home run props this Saturday, as both he and the Brewers look to continue their magical midseason run.

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Giancarlo Stanton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 DraftKings)

The Yankees take on former Yankee Sonny Gray on Saturday night in St. Louis, and Giancarlo Stanton should be in a good spot. My colleague, Kipp Heisterman highlighted Stanton yesterday, but the Yankees opted to give him a day off. I'm circling back to Stanton on Saturday, though, for many of the same reasons that Kipp highlighted on Friday.

Stanton missed the first few months of the season with issues in both his elbows, but he has hit a solid .299 with 12 homers in his 43 games. Eight of those 12 homers have come in his last 19 games, and he has a .436 wOBA and 53.5% hard-hit rate over that span. He had a pair of homers against the Twins earlier this week.

Giancarlo Stanton is hitting .290/.368/.580 with 12 home runs. He has the 7th-best wRC+ in MLB. pic.twitter.com/JxbQQjfK2M

— The Yankee Report (@YankeeReport_) August 13, 2025

Stanton's advanced metrics have remained elite this season, with a 55.9% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 95.3 miles per hour. All but one of his home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching like Sonny Gray, and he has a .418 wOBA on that side of the split.

Gray has gone a decent 11-5 this season with the Cardinals, with a 4.06 ERA and 3.11 FIP. He has had a little trouble with long balls, though, so far in the second half. Over his five starts after the All-Star break, he has allowed seven homers in 27 1/3 innings, with a 6.26 ERA and 4.57 FIP. Righties like Stanton have done most of the damage against Gray, hitting 12 of those 17 homers and posting a .339 wOBA, compared to just a .273 wOBA by lefties against Gray.

Stanton should be fresh after getting Friday off, and if he's back in the lineup in St. Louis, he'll be a strong option to include in Saturday's home run props at over +300.

Hunter Goodman OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings)

Goodman helped the Rockies get off to a fast start with a homer in the first inning on Friday, and he's up to 25 homers on the year after smashing three homers in his last four games and six in his last 12. The Rockies held on to beat the Dbacks and level their four-game series at Coors coming into Saturday night's matchup.

Goodman has been using his teammate Kyle Farmer's bat for the last few games, and it has been yielding great results. The slightly shorter model has led to plenty of power production, including this blast on Friday:

Hunter Goodman is now up to 25 home runs on the season!

He is slugging .805 (153 total bases in 190 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season, 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .587.#Rockies pic.twitter.com/3cMgnOqKn7

— Inside Edge (@IE_MLB) August 16, 2025

Despite playing his home games at Coors Field, Goodman actually has more homers on the road this season. He has hit 15 dingers on the road, but he obviously still gets a boost from being in the rarified air in Denver. Of his 25 homers, 17 have come against right-handed pitching, and he's hitting .289 with a .370 wOBA against righties on the year.

Goodman has a 17.6% barrel rate and an average exit velocity of 90.2 miles per hour over his last 12 games, posting a .438 wOBA and .419 ISO over those dozen games.

On Saturday, he'll look to keep smashing in a good matchup against Arizona's Ryne Nelson. Nelson is 6-3 on the season with a 3.46 ERA, but he has struggled more on the road, where he has a 4.93 ERA, 4.97 FIP, and nine home runs allowed. Nelson has given up six homers in his last six starts, and he has allowed 11 runs in 16 1/3 innings over his three most recent outings. Righties like Goodman have slightly better splits against him, which should set Goodman up to keep up his recent power surge on Saturday.

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