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Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/24/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
We have a small slate of games, with some scheduled for the afternoon today. We will focus on games starting as early as 1:10 p.m. and as late as 10:05 p.m., providing a full day of watching and rooting for dingers. I have gone five for thirteen in the three home runs articles I have written this season. Let’s stay hot on Thursday.
I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our four-hitters to go yard.
Please keep reading to see my favorite home run prop bets from MLB games on Thursday, April 24, 2025. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop at other sportsbooks to find the best value on your wagers.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Thursday, April 24:
- Andrew Benintendi, Chicago White Sox
- Dylan Crews, Washington Nationals
- Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics
Andrew Benintendi OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings)
Our first home run bet of the day is indeed a wild one. With these odds, it’s a fun bet with the DraftKings no-sweat promotion. If it loses, you can lose the bonus bet on a bet later in the day. I like the chances of this hitting, albeit.
Beni has been elite this season against right-hand pitching. He has a .430 wOBA, .231 ISO, 34.4 percent FB, and a 12.5 percent Barrel. Three of his four home runs this season have come off right-hand pitching. Over his last 25 PA, he has a .294 wOBA, .261 ISO, 60.0 percent FB, and a 35.0% Hard Hit. He is not as hot as he was to start the season, but he is swinging the bat extremely well.
Our main target here is Chris Paddack. He is not someone I want to target with the White Sox in DFS, but he is prone to giving up a home run or two. Last season, he had a 1.43 HR/9 and a 41.2 percent FB. In 2025, he has a 2.08 HR/9 and a 42.6 percent FB. In 2025, he has allowed a 2.7 HR/9, 47.6 percent FB, and 20.0 percent HR/FB against left-hand hitters. They are the target.
Paddack throws three pitches to left-handed hitters, but in 2025, he has thrown the four-seam fastball and the changeup to left-handed hitters 86.5 percent of the time, so those will be the two pitches we focus on.
His four-seam fastball has a .438 xSLG this season and has allowed 28 BBEs, and his changeup has a .530 xSLG and has allowed 17 BBEs. Between those pitches, three home runs have been allowed. Here is how Beni has performed in 2025 against these pitches from Paddack.
- FF: 19 Pitches, .745 wOBA, .750 ISO, 17 LA, 1 HR
- CH: 22 Pitches, .429 wOBA, .426 ISO, 19 LA, 1 HR
Between the performance of Beni in 2025, Paddack's home run rate, and the pitch mix data alignment between the two, I am pulling the trigger on a value home run bet. Let's call it a heat check.
Dylan Crews OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings)
Dylan Crews is heating up. Over his last 24 PA, he has a .463 wOBA, .417 ISO, 1.083 OPS, 34.8 percent FB, and a 47.8 percent Hard Hit. He squares off against a left-handed pitcher in Cade Povich on Thursday night in favorable hitting conditions. There will be a nine mph wind blowing straight out to left field tonight in Washington.
Dylan Crews just hit a 109 MPH nuke to left-center. That’s 3 HRs in 4 games and a seven game hitting streak. pic.twitter.com/zOMe6GQKzJ
— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) April 23, 2025
Crews has been great against left-handed pitching in his young career. He has a .345 wOBA, .216 ISO, 33.3 percent FB, and 32.1 percent FB against lefties. The intriguing thing here is the matchup with Povich and his recent form.
Povich has a 4.26 xFIP, 1.96 HR, 9, 38,1 percent FB, and an 88.1 percent Z-Contact in 2025. He allowed a 1.36 HR/9 and a 46.7 percent FB in 2024. Righties are the target here for us as well, and that is the handiness that has done the most damage against Povich.
In 2025, right-handed hitters have a .491 wOBA, a .198 ISO, 2.4 HR/9, a 30.8 percent FB rate, and a 25.0 percent HR/FB ratio. Statistically, he is one of the worst starters in MLB.
Povich is throwing three pitches to right-hand hitters that are getting him very hard this season. Here is how those pitches are performing in 2025.
- FF: 109 Pitches, .548 xwOBA, .828 xSLG, 15 LA, 2 HRs
- CU: 62 Pitches, .384 xwOBA, .569 xSLG, -9 LA, 2 HRs
- ST: 43 Pitches, .316 xwOBA, .417 xSLG, 23 LA, 0 HRs
Crews does not have a ton of data against the pitches from Povich since he has only played in the big leagues for about half a season.
- FF: 58 Pitches, .259 wOBA, .231 ISO, 33 LA, 1 HRs
- CU: 20 Pitches, .297 wOBA, .000 ISO, 27 LA, 0 HRs
- ST: Not enough data
I like the launch angles above for the Crews. He hits a lot of the repertoire from Povich in the air, and with this wind, if he gets into one, I like our chances of it leaving the yard.
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Oneil Cruz is a very interesting bet here as he squares off against lefty Tyler Anderson. The Pirates sometimes give him a day off in this spot against a Southpaw, so I hope that doesn't happen here, but I like the matchup a ton for Cruz as long as he's in the lineup.
Anderson has negative regression coming his way sometime soon. This season, he has a 2.08 ERA but has allowed a 5.09 xFIP and a 62.3 percent FB. He has a 9.1 percent HR/FB. These numbers are unsustainable. The interesting thing here is Anderson's reverse splits. He has a .545 wOBA, .550 ISO, 6.2 HR/9, and a 66.7 percent FB to left-hand hitters this season.
ONEIL CRUZ BLASTS A 463-FOOT HR 🤯 pic.twitter.com/8RoZlsz8EP
— MLB (@MLB) April 24, 2025
Since the start of 2024, Cruz has a .293 wOBA, .196 ISO, and six home runs against left-hand pitching. We are playing to the splits of Anderson more than Cruz here, but he does hit the mix of Anderson well. The cutter is Anderson's main pitch to lefties and had a .440 xSLG and six HRs against it in 2024. Cruz hits this pitch from lefties well.
FC: 22 Pitches, .400 wOBA, .400 ISO, 10 LA, 0 HR
Once Anderson is out of the game, he will likely get the platoon advantage against an awful Angels bullpen. They have allowed a 4.45 xFIP, 1.66 HR/9, 38.5 percent FB, and a 35.0 percent Hard hit in 2025. Cruz has a good chance of hitting a home run tonight, and we get some value on his line since he squares off against a lefty.
Tyler Soderstrom OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500)
Soderstrom is my favorite bet of the batch here on Thursday and of the batch. If you want to get bold, here I think Nick Kurtz hits his first major league home run tonight as well. Jacob deGrom was great in his last start, but I am willing to buy into attacking him for one more start because of the value.
In 2025, deGrom had 2.08 HR/9 and a 52.5 percent FB. He will now toe the rubber in Sacramento, an AAA affiliate park. This park has played as one of the smallest in the big leagues to start 2025, and to add insult to injury, the wind is blowing out to left field at 14 mph.
DeGrom has been crushed by left-handed hitters this season, posting a .415 wOBA, .386 ISO, 4.0 HR/9, 51.4 percent FB, 42.9 percent Hard Hit, and 27.8 percent HR/FB. He has also only been beaten by one pitch this season, and that is his four-seam fastball. All five home runs in 2025 have come from the FF, which has a .523 xSLG.
Enter Soderstrom. Soderstrom, a lefty, has a 437 wOBA, .368 ISO, 32.1 percent FB, and a 20.8 percent Barrel against right-hand pitches in 2025. He is tied in the big leagues this season with nine HR. He has hit eight of those against right-hand pitching.
Last but not least, Soderstrom has destroyed four seam fastballs between 96 and 97 mph since the start of 2024. Here is that data.
FF: 33 Pitches, .767 wOBA, .714 ISO, 29 LA, 1 HR
I am all in on Soderstrom tonight. The ballpark favors the hitters for the Athletics, and Soderstrom matches up the best with deGrom.
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