Backfield Breakdowns and Target Shares - Fantasy Football Week 3 Outlooks for Rashid Shaheed, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tua Tagovailoa, and More (2024)

September 19, 2024

What are the important fantasy football takeaways from Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season. Kyle Lindemann breaks down all you need to know heading to Week 3.

Alright, let's break down all the key takeaways from Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season for your fantasy football squad. You're falling behind if you're not keeping an eye on who’s getting the snaps, where the targets are going, or which trends are popping up across the league. This stuff is the bread and butter for making the right start/sit decisions and staying ahead of your league mates.

Unfortunately, the injury bug has reared its ugly head across the league already, so we can’t forget about those waiver-wire heroes. Week in and week out, players come out of nowhere, and if you can spot them early, you’ll be ahead of the pack. Find those hidden gems before the rest of your league wakes up, and you’ll be making those sneaky pickups that give you the edge.

So, what’s the latest? We're seeing some serious shake-ups in the backfield rotations, with a few unexpected names leading the charge in snap counts. Some guys we didn’t expect to get the rock are now front and center, while others have dropped off a cliff. At wide receiver, the target share game is shifting too. A few sneaky WRs are suddenly soaking up targets and looking like must-starts going forward. So, let’s dive into Week 2’s biggest data points to help you make the best decisions heading into Week 3!

The Saints Offense Goes Nuclear Again

Seriously, is this the same team we watched for all of 2023, or just a simulation? Holy, Klint Kubiak! The son of former Denver Broncos quarterback, offensive coordinator, and head coach Gary Kubiak was brought in to be the Saints' new offensive coordinator this season after spending 2023 with Kyle Shanahan as the passing game coordinator of the San Francisco 49ers.

The Saints have scored 91 points in their first two games. Ninety-one! Ironically enough, the only teams that achieved such a feat in the first two weeks of the modern NFL season were the 1970 Dallas Cowboys (91) and the 2009 New Orleans Saints (93). Both went on to win the Super Bowl.

It was one thing for the Saints to beat up on a hapless Carolina Panthers defense to start the year, but to do it to Dallas on the road in Week 2 against heralded defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is entirely another!

New Orleans has completely flipped the script on offense, and it’s been something to watch. Last year, they barely used play action, just 14.4% of the time, dead last in the league. But this season? They've cranked that number up to a league-high 52.3% in just two games. It’s like they went from being the most predictable team to one that’s constantly keeping defenses guessing.

Then there’s the pre-snap motion, another wrinkle they’ve added to their offense. Now, every snap feels like a chess match, with guys moving around, forcing defenses to adjust on the fly. It’s no wonder quarterback Derek Carr is already looking way more comfortable. Last year, he only had one touchdown and averaged a modest 7.7 yards per attempt in the first two games. This year, though, the offense looks like a different beast, and Carr’s numbers are starting to reflect that shift.

So far, the Saints are making defenses hesitate, and that’s been the key to their early success. It's a whole new playbook, and if they keep it up, we are looking at a very potent offensive group for fantasy with Carr, running back Alvin Kamara, and wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.

Carr looks like a smash in Superflex leagues as well as Olave looking like a solid pick at ADP (his touchdowns will come), but Kamara and Shaheed look like league-winners at this point in the season based on their ADP. We've still got a long way to go, but it's fair to feel pretty bullish on this offense with Kubiak getting embattled head coach Dennis Allen well off the hot seat for now.

What to Do With Christian McCaffrey in Fantasy?

The harsh reality of fantasy football is that NFL head coaches don't give a lick about us, and they never will. It's the unfortunate reality of playing a game within a game. But it's fair to question just how different McCaffrey's ADP might have looked in August had the 49ers disclosed his injury as an Achilles instead of a calf strain. Now, maybe they didn't know that at the time either, but it's still fair to wonder how such a landmine could have been avoided in drafts.

McCaffrey missed the 49ers' Week 2 contest against the Minnesota Vikings and was placed on injured reserve before the game, dealing a huge blow to his fantasy outlook. Adding in the reality he was drafted as the 1.01 in most fantasy leagues only makes it even worse.

If you drafted CMC, hopefully you were able to scoop up fellow running back mate Jordan Mason. If not, your only shot is to weather the storm and hope for the best. Outside of dynasty or keeper leagues, there's no point in trying to sell now for pennies on the dollar.

#49ers Christian McCaffrey - Comments suggest IR.

His pain is worsening, which means he could rupture his Achilles by playing.

And that would torpedo the career of a 28 year old RB.

Problem is that 4 wks out still doesn’t guarantee he’s healed.

Have to play this one by ear.

— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) September 13, 2024

Should we have seen McCaffrey's injury coming after he saw 668 total touches in the last two seasons between the Panthers and the 49ers? No one has a crystal ball and hindsight is always 20/20, but some are wondering just how truthful the 49ers and head coach Kyle Shanahan were with the media regarding their running back's health during training camp and the preseason.

Jordan Mason should be viewed as a top 10 running back in fantasy as long as CMC is sidelined. The third-year back from Georgia Tech has rushed 48 times for 247 yards and two TDs to go with two receptions for nine yards through two weeks. The 49ers were a little sluggish in Week 2 after being upset by Minnesota, but it's hard not to feel bullish for Mason in the games he plays until McCaffrey returns, given how much usage he's already seen.

It was also recently announced that wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. would miss a few games. In the meantime, we can expect a bit of an uptick in targets for Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. However, the biggest loser from Deebo being sidelined is quarterback Brock Purdy. He was hovering around QB12 territory before the injury and could take a step back over the next few games without Deebo, but it's probably nitpicking. Kyle Shanahan is still an offensive wizard.

The State of Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins Offense

The Miami Dolphins season, and ultimately their quarterback's health, potentially took a turn for the worst on Thursday Night Football. On 4th and 2, Tua scampered outside of the pocket and slid headfirst to make it past the first-down marker. In the process, he collided with Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin and suffered a blow to the head.

Tua lay down on the field for several minutes and was removed from the game. A few minutes later we got the news that he was concussed and would miss the remainder of the contest while backup quarterback Skylar Thompson took over. The Dolphins would lose 31-10 and many began to fear the worst for Tua.

Of those opining about the health concerns of #Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, the most realistic portrayal of a player’s mindset came from former #Patriots LB @TedyBruschi, who had a stroke at 31, had a device put into his heart and returned to play. It’s worth your time. 🎥: @espn pic.twitter.com/YM1Sxtq3QP

— Charles Robinson (@CharlesRobinson) September 15, 2024

Being that this author is not a medical expert, it's really hard to speculate on how soon Tua will play (if at all) and it's important to refer judgment to those with the knowledge and expertise in medical science and neurology. Clearly, Tua's health is more important than fantasy, but we want to make sure we are assessing this situation properly and what those implications could mean for our lineups going forward.

So, what should we make of the Dolphins' offense without Tua? The team recently signed Tyler Huntley to the roster to compete with Skylar Thompson. It's a downgrade for all of the running backs, as well as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but not enough of a downgrade that you should consider benching either wide receiver.

The backfield could get a little murky once veteran Raheem Mostert returns, but De'Von Achane remains the team's top option. In their next five games, the Dolphins play the Seahawks, Titans, Patriots, Colts, and Cardinals. None of those matchups exactly strike fear into the hearts of Miami's coaching staff, although the Patriots' defense and slow pace of play could lead to a low-scoring game.

Thompson or Huntley are a downgrade from Tagovailoa, but my advice is to remain in a holding pattern on this one to see what the offense looks like without Tua as well as what his diagnosis is going forward. Even without their quarterback, there's still a lot of speed on this offense.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Has His First 100+ Yard Game

After being hyped up by many in the dynasty and fantasy community over the last two years, JSN's breakout game finally arrived. He led the Seahawks in receiving and finished with 16 targets and 12 receptions for 117 yards in an overtime victory over the Patriots.

Per PFF, Smith-Njigba played 87 percent of the snaps, had a 95.8 percent route participation rate, and finished with a 30.9 percent target share.

Veteran wide receiver Tyler Lockett was a limited participant in practice with a thigh injury but ended up playing in the game. The biggest question many in the fantasy community have been asking is if we are seeing a changing of the guard, with JSN sliding into the Seahawks' WR2 role and pushing Lockett out.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba. All 16 Targets from Week 2 at Patriots. Does he overtake Lockett now as the Seahawks WR2? pic.twitter.com/v3G5RupWPn

— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) September 16, 2024

JSN played over 80 percent of the snaps in just one game as a rookie in 2023 and is seeing the field a lot more in Year 2. The Seahawks ran 11-personnel on 54 of their 70 offensive snaps in Week 2, which means that D.K. Metcalf, JSN, and Lockett were all on the field at the same time. If the Seahawks continue that trend, it will be a good thing for JSN. While the arrow is pointing upwards, we still need to see how things shake out in Week 3 regarding Lockett.

Nonetheless, these are some positive signs for a player that many have some very high hopes for.

Important Target Share Data from Week 2

These pass catchers had the highest target numbers from Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season, and you can find all of their important metrics including snap percentages, targets per routes run, target share percentages, and more from my fellow RotoBaller colleague Scott Rinnear below.

💥UPDATE:
Week 2 Top 40 WRs (PPR) with MNF included

which is good so I could add something called a Britain Covey as the WR39...just ahead of Aiyuk😭

Fantasy points
FPTS/Tgt
FPTS/Route
Snap%
Routes Route%
Targets
Targets per route run (TPRR)
Target share https://t.co/sJxyrUaKzf pic.twitter.com/ZUTbMlcCcA

— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) September 17, 2024

A few important points to consider for these wide receivers going forward.

After a rough rookie debut that saw him catch just one pass for four yards, Marvin Harrison Jr. showed off his immense talent in Week 2 against the Los Angeles Rams. Harrison saw eight targets and finished with four receptions for 130 yards and two touchdowns, but after diving into the film, he probably could have gotten two more. Arizona beat up on the injury-depleted Rams 41-10 and subbed many of their starters out early.

Fellow rookie Malik Nabers also had a fantastic outing, seeing 17 targets to finish with 10 receptions for 127 yards and one touchdown. The Giants had a tough loss to their rival Commanders to fall to 0-2, but Nabers remains the lone bright spot in the Giants' offense. Many in the fantasy space are worried about quarterbacks Daniel Jones and Drew Lock, but Nabers seeing this kind of usage each week makes him a high-end WR2/high-end WR1 going forward.

Over the summer there was a lot of debate regarding the Houston Texans pass catchers in fantasy as Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell would be competing with each other, but as of now, Collins looks like the clear WR1. He's led the team in snaps played, as well as targets over the last two weeks. Collins finished Week 2 on Sunday Night Football against the Bears with 10 targets, good for eight receptions with 135 yards and one touchdown.

So much for all that talk of Justin Jefferson being a fade for fantasy because of the uncertainty of the Vikings' quarterback room after Kirk Cousins left for Atlanta. Head coach Kevin O'Connell put on an absolute masterclass against the 49ers in Week 2 and has Minnesota sitting pretty at 2-0. Jefferson left the game with a leg contusion, but he said he expects to suit up in Week 3.

Jefferson has 13 targets through two weeks, good for eight receptions, 192 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. Quarterback Sam Darnold has made a few mistakes but has played well within O'Connell's system. We should have a great deal of confidence in the Vikings' offense going forward.

Veteran Cooper Kupp is headed to injured reserve and now the Rams will be without Kupp and Puka Nacua for the foreseeable future. To say that's a clear downgrade for quarterback Matthew Stafford would be an understatement.

The Eagles lost a heartbreaker to the Falcons on MNF and could be without star wideout A.J. Brown for a few more weeks. Fellow wideout DeVonta Smith will have to carry the load for the time being. He finished with a 100 percent snap share, 100 percent route participation, and a 34.4 percent target share in Week 2. Smith would end the game with seven receptions for 76 yards and one touchdown and he could have had one more.

It's been a slow start for Falcons wide receiver Drake London, but he came to life at the end of MNF. London played 96.7 percent of the snaps, had a 96.7 route participation rate, and saw a 26.9 percent target share. He would finish with six receptions for 54 yards and one touchdown.

Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins looked sluggish in Week 1 and through the first half of Week 2. After recovering from an Achilles injury, it appeared that he couldn't drive the ball and push off to create the needed torque on his throws. But in the second half, Cousins played with a lot more confidence and propelled the Falcons to an improbable 22-21 comeback win in the game's final seconds.

If Cousins can regain much of his prior form, it's a huge boost for the Falcons' skill players in fantasy.

What Running Backs Saw Bell-Cow Usage in Week 2?

Here were the running backs who saw at least a 60 percent snap share in Week 2.

A few important nuggets to consider for the running backs:

• Zack Moss seems to have overtaken the Cincinnati Bengals backfield and is playing well ahead of Chase Brown. Moss played 51 out of a possible 64 snaps in Week 2 while Brown played just 13. Moss also dominated the goal line touches eight to two and played the majority of third downs. Moss also out-snapped Brown in Week 1 by a count of 33 to 17.
• Alvin Kamara has been taken out of the Saints' last two games early because they were blowing out their opponents so badly, so don't worry about his snap shares appearing lower than normal. Kamara looks to be a locked-in bell-cow RB for 2024.
• Zach Charbonnet played 95.7% of the snaps in fellow teammate Kenneth Walker III's absence with an oblique injury. Charbs is a must-start in fantasy for as long as KWIII is sidelined.
• Tony Pollard largely out-snapped fellow teammate Tyjae Spears in Week 2 by a count of 44-22, but it was largely due to Spears suffering an ankle injury and not returning to the game. While Pollard has looked good thus far, this backfield still has a chance to be a 50/50 split.

Is it Time to Panic on the Rookie Quarterbacks?

It's been a rough go for the rookies under center through the first two weeks. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix have combined to go 123 of 196 (62.7% comp) for 1,061 yards with no passing TDs and six interceptions. Yikes.

The good news is they've been solid on the ground with 251 rushing yards and three TDs but have stumbled to a 2-4 record out of the gate.

New England Patriots fans should be glad that quarterback Drake Maye is on the bench for now while veteran Jacoby Brissett takes his lumps given the lack of solid passing options in their offense.

🚨🚨STOP BLAMING CALEB🚨🚨#Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams was pressured on 36 of his 44 dropbacks, which is a HISTORICALLY HIGH 81.8% of dropbacks.

Caleb was also sacked 7 sacks during the game.

ABSURD.

(via @uSTADIUM) pic.twitter.com/7I8tsKSgZ5

— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) September 16, 2024

It's probably not yet time to panic about the rookie quarterbacks, but perhaps it's a reminder of how we should have tempered our expectations for Caleb Williams from the beginning and not tried to compare him to one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history before he had ever taken a snap.

Things don't look great for Bo Nix in Denver right now and some are questioning how soon Sean Payton might find himself on the hot seat. Rookie Jayden Daniels will still have some spike weeks due to his rushing upside, but he doesn't have a lot of help in Washington right now outside of wide receiver Terry McLaurin. But the good news is the data suggests these guys will all get better as the season goes along.

An Update on Isiah Pacheco and the Chiefs' Offense

As if injuries haven't been bad enough for fantasy football this year, the Chiefs starting running back is headed to injured reserve after fracturing his fibula during the team's Week 2 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. The Chiefs have started 2-0, but are now without their top back, as well as speedster Marquise Brown.

So, who is now expected to fill Pacheco's shoes? Undoubtedly, the load will rest on the shoulders of veteran Samaje Perine and rookie Carson Steele. Perine should be added in all leagues due to the uptick in work he's about to see. Veteran back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is eligible to come off of injured reserve in two weeks and this backfield could become a three-headed monster for fantasy while Pacheco is out.

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco is expected to land on injured reserve with the fibula injury he suffered Sunday vs. the Bengals, meaning he will miss a minimum of four weeks and quite possibly longer, per sources. He is undergoing additional testing to determine the full damage. pic.twitter.com/4DKfSorbgO

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 16, 2024

In the meantime, playing Perine and stashing CEH on injured reserve while Pacheco is sidelined might be a wise move. After all, this is still the Chiefs offense with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes that we are talking about.

Top Waiver Targets for Week 2

• Samaje Perine, RB - Kansas City Chiefs (Owned in 4% on Yahoo! and 3% on ESPN)
• Demarcus Robinson, WR - Los Angeles Rams (42% Yahoo!, 14% ESPN)
• Bucky Irving, RB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (34% Yahoo!, 18% ESPN)
• Alexander Mattison, RB - Las Vegas Raiders (38% Yahoo!, 11% ESPN)
• Derek Carr, QB - New Orleans Saints (19% Yahoo!, 4% ESPN)
• Antonio Gibson, RB - New England Patriots (16% Yahoo!, 43% ESPN)
• Geno Smith, QB - Seattle Seahawks (34% on Yahoo!, 13% ESPN)

Conclusion

Alright, you all know the drill. Don’t hit the panic button after Week 2! You drafted your team for a reason, and you’ve got to trust the process. But let’s be real, you can’t just stick your head in the sand and ignore all the new info coming out of the league each week. That’s how you end up with dead weight on your roster.

The key here is balance. You’ve got to be quick enough to catch onto trends before your league mates, but not so hasty that you’re making moves just for the sake of it. If you don’t adjust when things shift, you’ll be stuck holding players who aren’t delivering, and nobody wants that. We're also reaching a pivotal point where you might need to make some crucial decisions on your dynasty roster before the rest of the market catches up.

Hopefully you got some solid takeaways from this recap. Keep checking in weekly for all the info you need to stay ahead of the curve, and make sure to follow me on X for everything football. Thanks again for reading! Best of luck the rest of the way, let’s get those wins!

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