X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Arbitrage - Tight End Draft Bargains

If you missed it, we've already reviewed running back and wide receiver ADP comps to find better bargains in the middle rounds. Now, we move on to the non-glamour position of tight end, which is still crucial to any fantasy football squad.

While ADP is very informative and can help you be informed about where you should start worrying about potentially missing out on a player, it shouldn't affect your decisions massively. Take Josh Allen's 2020 season: 396.1 fantasy points to lead the whole NFL, and current holder of a 16 ADP that is seeing him drafted inside the first two rounds (!) of drafts these days. Does that mean you should absolutely trust Allen having another monster year that when all is said and done gives you a good return on investment after paying a second-round pick for him? Nope! In fact, the most logical thing to happen is Allen regressing and finishing with more average-ish fantasy numbers in 2021.

In this four-entry series, I'll go through the four offensive positions of fantasy football, highlighting names that are going cheap in early drafts and evaluate how they are expected to produce similar numbers to other much more-hyped players.

Featured Promo: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off and win big in 2023. Exclusive access to our Premium articles, 15 lineup tools, new Team Sync platform, Lineup Optimizer, Premium DFS tools and cheat sheets, and much more! Sign Up Now!

 

Identifying Overpriced TEs

Even if I wanted to hand you some alternative names, I wouldn't have been able to. Such is the scarcity at the tight end position, where only three players (Darren Waller, George Kittle, and Travis Kelce) are being drafted inside the first three rounds and none between the 28th and the 54th pick (more than two rounds in separation, that is). If we also remove that fourth player in Mark Andrews, who is getting off the board "early", then we'd need to go all the way to the 99th pick to find the next tight end (Mike Gesicki). Such is life in this position.

Here is what I'm looking for when trying to identify comps for the top-three TEs at lower spots. If we build some sort of "combined profile" of them, we can land at something close to:

  • At least nine PPG per game
  • Ideally 150+ PPR on the season
  • At least 5.5 targets per game

 

Identifying TE Bargains with RD4+ ADP

After applying those filters and thresholds to the projections data, this is what I was left with.

Other than the top-three men already highlighted and lost-in-the-middle-of-nowhere Mark Andrews, there is a nice group of three tight ends with upside and good PPR projections in the ninth-to-11th rounds clip. While Andrews can very well be the no. 4 tight end (with upside for a top-three finish if things go his way in Baltimore on a more loaded receiving corps), it truly feels like the value is going to be found further down the board in that three-TE group of Gesicki, Thomas, and Higbee.

Remember, also, that rookie tight end Kyle Pitts does not appear here but he has been one of the most hyped and highly-drafted freshmen ever, making for another flier to take early with a seemingly high floor.

 

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (ADP 54.2)

The Baltimore Ravens decided to, once and for all, bolster its receiving corps a bit with a few additions both via free agency (veteran Sammy Watkins) and draft (Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace). All of that should help QB Lamar Jackson when it comes to having more passing targets out there on the field, but even with that now-crowded offense, the odds are Mark Andrews ends up leading the pack in 2021 no matter what.

Andrews is entering his fourth season as a pro, and in the past three, he's been targeted 236 times in Baltimore. That is not going to knock you off your chair, but now compare that to the second most-targeted player in that span (Willie Snead) and you'll get what I mean: Snead was targeted 189 times, 47 fewer targets than Andrews received. Marquise Brown and Michael Crabtree are the only other Ravens with at least 100 targets in the 2018-20 span.

Mark Andrews closed 2019 as the TE5 and pretty much repeated that same position last year with a TE6 finish. He dropped his total FP as he missed time, going from 207.2 FP in 2019 to just 170.1 in 2020, but some regression was expected so it is not that we are scared of Andrews' upside entering 2021. Only five tight ends have scored more fantasy points than Andrews since 2018, and two of those (Ertz and Cook) are more washed than not. Andrews doesn't look bad at his current ADP given his TE4 projection.

 

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (ADP 99.7)

The Dolphins enter 2021 with two important aspects surrounding their offense: 1) Tua Tagovailoa should play the full 17-game schedule, and 2) Miami has added sound weapons in WRs Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller to go along with RB2 Malcolm Brown. Good for fantasy GMs out there as Gesicki dodged a bullet with the Fins having no true impactful additions at the TE position.

It's been three years of pro football for Mike already, and he's only gotten better as he's aged: Gesicki went from 40.2 FP as a rookie to 136.0, then 159.6 in 2020. His FPPG has also improved steadily from 2.5 to 8.5 and finally 10.6 last year. That's what we like, folks. Back-to-back TE1 seasons finishing as the 12th and seventh-best tight end overall are great and he should have more open routes this year with the likes of DeVante Parker, Fuller, and rookie Waddle taking most of the opposing defenses' attention.

Only five tight ends reached 700+ receiving yards in 2020, Gesicki among them. Not only that, but he was also the only player to do so on fewer than 58 receptions and fewer than 88 targets. In fact, only Travis Kelce posted a higher YPR mark at 13.5 compared to Gesicki's 13.3 yards per reception. The catch rate wasn't mind-blowing (62.4%) but Gesicki's aDOT (no. 3 among TEs) and Completed AY/Target (no. 4) were sublime and shouldn't change in 2021.

 

Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team (ADP 103.0)

Thomas was a pleasing surprise last season while playing for a rather dysfunctional Footies squad that featured QBs Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, and Kyle Allen. Not the quarterbacks of your dreams, I mean. Logan Thomas, an early-career QB himself, had his best year ever in Washington in 2020 after seasons in Buffalo (two) and Detroit (one) in which he was pretty much an afterthought with no more than 28 targets in any single season.

Logan Thomas completed a top-three year in 2020 with 176.6 PPR points over the year while playing 16 games. The average was quite high at 11 FPPG, which is not bad for a tight end not overly reliant on scoring touchdowns (six in 2020). Thomas wasn't great in terms of overall yardage given his usage (670 receiving yards on 72 receptions) but you have to, again, consider he was playing for mediocre quarterbacks all year long.

With the addition of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and an improved receiving corps now featuring rookie Dyami Brown and free-agency additions Adam Humphries and Curtis Samuel, Thomas should get better spots to thrive in his routes run. Thomas was also targeted 1.1 times per game inside the RZ (8th-best mark among TEs) which should help him positively regress in the touchdown department if he keeps those numbers up. He also caught 88.2% of his RZ targets and finished the year tied for the third-most games playing as a top-12 TE with nine such matches.

 

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (ADP 137.7)

Higbee was labeled a WR back in his 2016 rookie campaign, but all he could do back then was finish with 25.5 PPR points over 16 games on just 11-of-29 receptions and 85 yards with a touchdown. It took him two more years, but when the time came in 2019, he surely paid his truthers back with a massive 160.4 PPR tally, good for a TE8 finish. The Rams' tight end posted career-high marks back then in targets, receptions, and yards, and although his scoring numbers were not gaudy (just three touchdowns), everything else pointed toward regression in 2020.

That is, in fact, what happened last year. Fantasy GMs bet on him with a TE9 ADP and 91.3 overall ADP that ended with Higbee dropping to the TE17 spot by the end of the year and 147th-best player overall in PPR leagues. Ugh. That is not necessarily a bad thing, though, as Higbee's ADP is down quite a bit this summer compared to last season, and it is more probable than not that he improves his fantasy numbers with fellow TE Gerald Everett now out of town.

The Rams have not added a quality tight end in the offseason, so Higbee is the clear-cut top TE on the team. Matthew Stafford is also the QB of the Rams entering 2021, which bodes well for Higbee's upside. There is not much between a top-12 season at the tight end position and Higbee's chances at accomplishing it. Even on a down year in 2020, Higbee's 11.8 YPR on 40 receptions to go with five touchdowns were only replicated by six other tight ends.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!




Win Big With RotoBaller

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

More Fantasy Football Analysis




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Steven Kwan1 hour ago

Plates Five In Win Over Seattle
Tee Higgins8 hours ago

Not Concerned About Contract Situation
Jeff Skinner9 hours ago

Scores Game-Winning Goal In Overtime
Devon Levi9 hours ago

Earns Victory In NHL Debut
A.J. Puk11 hours ago

Picks Up Save For Marlins Friday
Rhys Hoskins11 hours ago

Undergoes Successful Knee Surgery
Nick Solak11 hours ago

Mariners Acquire Nick Solak From Reds
Justin Verlander11 hours ago

Does Some Throwing On Friday
Justin Verlander11 hours ago

Does Some Light Throwing
Luis Urías11 hours ago

Luis Urias Reportedly Heading To Injured List
Joey Wiemer12 hours ago

Reportedly Will Be Called Up
Anthony Rendon12 hours ago

Being Investigated By MLB
Willson Contreras12 hours ago

Receives Good News On Friday
Seattle Seahawks13 hours ago

Ryan Neal Becomes Free Agent
Pharaoh Brown13 hours ago

Joins Colts
Darrynton Evans13 hours ago

To Meet With Colts
Laquon Treadwell13 hours ago

Working Out For Cowboys
Zach Collins14 hours ago

Out Against Golden State
De'Andre Hunter14 hours ago

Out With A Knee Injury On Friday
Oscar Gonzalez14 hours ago

Starting On Friday
Obi Toppin14 hours ago

Will Start Against The Cavs
Jarrett Allen14 hours ago

Downgraded To Out On Friday
Nelson Cruz14 hours ago

Batting Cleanup On Friday
Mike Moustakas14 hours ago

Remains Out Again
Michael Brantley14 hours ago

Takes Batting Practice
Andrew Vaughn14 hours ago

Sitting On Friday
Gavin Sheets16 hours ago

Oscar Colas Starting On Friday
Paul Sewald17 hours ago

Picks Up Win On Opening Day
Garrett Whitlock17 hours ago

Making Rehab Start Friday
Josh Rojas17 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff Against Dodgers
Corey Julks17 hours ago

Making MLB Debut Against White Sox
Bryan Reynolds17 hours ago

Opt-Out Clause The Sticking Point For Bryan Reynolds Extension
Portland Trail Blazers17 hours ago

LaMarcus Aldridge Officially Retires From The NBA
Jamal Murray17 hours ago

Considered Questionable Against Phoenix
Nikola Jokic17 hours ago

Could Miss His Second Consecutive Game
Kenyon Martin17 hours ago

Jr. Uncertain To Play Against Detroit
Tobias Harris17 hours ago

Could Miss Friday's Game Against Toronto
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander17 hours ago

Upgraded To Questionable On Friday
Al Horford18 hours ago

Uncertain To Suit Up On Friday
Jaylen Brown18 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable With Lower-Back Pain
Jayson Tatum18 hours ago

Listed As Questionable Against Utah
Kelly Olynyk18 hours ago

Is Available Against Boston On Friday
De'Andre Hunter18 hours ago

Downgraded To Out On Friday
Trayveon Williams20 hours ago

Bengals Have High Hopes For Trayveon Williams
Joe Burrow20 hours ago

Bengals Begin Extension Discussions With Joe Burrow
Mac Jones20 hours ago

Bill Belichick Still Non-Committal On Mac Jones
Sammy Blais22 hours ago

Extends Point Streak To Six Games
Cam Talbot22 hours ago

Makes A Winning Return
Matthew Beniers22 hours ago

Logs Two Points Against Anaheim
Stuart Skinner22 hours ago

Grabs A 43-Save Shutout
Tristan Jarry22 hours ago

Records His Second Shutout
Matthew Tkachuk22 hours ago

Rolls To Four Points Versus Montreal
T.J. Oshie22 hours ago

Exits With An Upper-Body Injury
Mikey Anderson23 hours ago

Injured On First Shift Thursday
CJ McCollum23 hours ago

Drops 23 Points In Easy Win Over Denver
Jamal Murray23 hours ago

Salvages Solid Performance In Loss
Brandon Ingram23 hours ago

Secures A Triple-Double Against Denver
Jaylen Brown24 hours ago

Collects Another 30-Point Game
Jayson Tatum24 hours ago

Drops 40 Points In Blowout Win
Naz Reid24 hours ago

Set To Miss Significant Amount Of Time
Linus Ullmark1 day ago

Allows One Goal In Overtime Victory
David Pastrnak1 day ago

Scores Game-Winning Goal
Baltimore Ravens2 days ago

Ravens Have Been Active In Receiver Market
Baker Mayfield2 days ago

Kyle Trask To Compete In Training Camp
Courtland Sutton2 days ago

Broncos Could Still Trade Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton
DeAndre Hopkins2 days ago

To Stay With Cardinals?
Odell Beckham Jr.2 days ago

Jets The Most Likely Landing Spot For Odell Beckham Jr.
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Panthers Not Settled On One QB For No. 1 Pick
Lamar Jackson2 days ago

Not Seeking Fully Guaranteed Deal
Nathan Peterman2 days ago

Re-Signs With Bears
Ryan Lindgren2 days ago

A Game-Time Decision Against New Jersey
Seth Jones2 days ago

Expects To Play Thursday
David Savard2 days ago

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Kirby Dach2 days ago

Set To Miss At Least One Week
Adam Boqvist2 days ago

Not Expected To Play Thursday
Matt Grzelcyk2 days ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Michael Hutchinson2 days ago

Tending Twine Against Boston Thursday
Stuart Skinner2 days ago

Gets The Nod For Edmonton Thursday
Petr Mrazek2 days ago

Between The Pipes Versus Blues
Dre Miller2 days ago

Kendre Miller Ahead Of Schedule
Buffalo Bills2 days ago

Bills Re-Sign Jordan Phillips
Las Vegas Raiders2 days ago

Alex Bars Returns To Raiders On One-Year Deal
Dallas Cowboys2 days ago

Johnathan Hankins Re-Signs With Cowboys
NFL2 days ago

Wanya Morris Getting Close To 100%
Brendon Todd3 days ago

Has Success At TPC San Antonio
Ben Martin3 days ago

Has Value At TPC San Antonio
Nick Taylor3 days ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Option At Valero
Taylor Pendrith3 days ago

A Sleeper Option At TPC San Antonio
Chris Kirk3 days ago

A Good Option At The Valero Texas Open
Matt Kuchar3 days ago

Loves Playing TPC San Antonio
Will Gordon3 days ago

Offers A Wild-Card Option At Valero
Cam Davis3 days ago

Can Keep His Current Form At TPC San Antonio
Mark Hubbard3 days ago

A Low-Risk Value Option At Valero
Tyler Duncan4 days ago

Start Tyler Duncan At TPC San Antonio
Emiliano Grillo4 days ago

Not Recommended At Valero
Patrick Rodgers4 days ago

Don't Give Patrick Rodgers A Shot At Valero
Adam Schenk4 days ago

Wants To Keep Momentum Rolling At Valero
Ryan Moore4 days ago

Cannot Get Past The Cut Lately
Stephan Jaeger4 days ago

Could Warm Things Up At Valero
Si Woo Kim4 days ago

A Possible Contender At Valero
Taylor Montgomery4 days ago

Attempting To Find Weekend Consistency
Corey Conners4 days ago

Trying To Recreate A Little Magic
Thomas Detry4 days ago

Continues To Impress In Rookie Season
Aaron Rai4 days ago

Brings Positive Momentum To Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia4 days ago

Looks To Stay Hot In Texas
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Impressive At COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Finds His Footing At COTA
Chris Buescher5 days ago

Continues To Shine On Road Courses
NASCAR5 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishes Seventh
Austin Cindric5 days ago

Has A Solid Day
Marlon Vera5 days ago

Has Four-Fight Winning Streak Snapped
Cory Sandhagen5 days ago

Dominates Striking Department
Yana Santos5 days ago

Dominated In Decision Loss
Holly Holm5 days ago

Dominates In Co-Main Event
Austin Lingo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss
Nate Landwehr5 days ago

Shines With Second-Round Submission Win
Andrea Lee5 days ago

Suffers Defeat In Close Matchup Saturday
Maycee Barber5 days ago

Takes Close Matchup On Saturday
Chidi Njokuani5 days ago

Takes Close Loss In Split-Decision Showing
Albert Duraev5 days ago

Holds Off Opponent In Tight Split Decision
William Byron5 days ago

Rounds Out Top Five At COTA
Ross Chastain5 days ago

Caught Up To Fourth At COTA On Sunday
Alex Bowman5 days ago

Brings Home Third Place Finish At COTA
Kyle Busch5 days ago

Scrambles Up To Second At Austin
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Dominates And Wins At COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF