X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Sleepers and Busts - Closers

Relief pitchers who may be overvalued busts or undervalued sleepers for 2018 fantasy baseball drafts. Elliott Baas looks at some RP & closer targets and avoids.

Where an owner drafts closers comes down to personal strategy and philosophy. Some owners are willing spend up for high-end closers like Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, while others are content to let closers fly off the board deep into the draft and scrounge for saves late.

For those of us unwilling to invest in expensive closers, we need to wade through the middle and late-tier reliever pool to get value.

Here are a couple of closers to target in the mid-late tiers, and a couple to avoid. ADP data is based on NFBC ADP as of 03/19/2018.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Undervalued Relief Pitchers

Jeurys Familia, New York Mets – 170th Overall, 19th RP

Injuries limited Familia to just 24.2 innings in 2017, and he missed 3 and half months due to a blood clot in his right shoulder. This has caused the once upper-mid tier closer to tumble down draft boards. The good news is that unlike other scary injuries, such as forearm issues that have owners afraid of Mark Melancon and Kelvin Herrera, this blood clot issue shouldn’t linger and doesn’t foretell greater injury. In his limited 2017 action Familia wasn’t his usual self, with a 4.38 ERA, 4.01 xFIP, and 9.12 K/9. His walk rate also ballooned to 5.47 BB/9. This 2017 performance coupled with his poor spring training (7.11 ERA in 6.1 innings as of 03/18) may have people thinking he won’t recover.

There are reasons to be encouraged with Familia. First, despite the injury Familia’s fastball still clocked in at 97 MPH, and his sinker was 96.1 MPH. These are both slightly below his career averages, but he didn't have the stark velocity drop that is often seen in injured pitchers as they implode. Another reason to be optimistic is the context of Familia’s high ERA last season. He surrendered seven of his 12 earned runs in two appearances, the one just before he hit the disabled list, and his first game returning from the disabled list. In those two appearances Familia pitched 1.1 innings and gave up six hits, eight runs (seven earned), and four walks. If we eliminate those two games from his overall numbers Familia has a 1.95 ERA in 23.1 innings instead of the 4.38 he had in 24.2 innings. It’s not fair to totally disregard those performances, but it at least offers context to his ugly overall numbers. Out of all the injury bounce back closers, Familia is the one worth targeting late. The injury is less likely to recur compared to forearm injuries in other pitchers, and his skills haven’t deteriorated.

Blake Treinen, Oakland Athletics – 175th Overall, 21st RP

It’s understandable why Treinen is going this late. His ERA was nearly four last season, he only had an 8.8 K/9, and he’s the closer on a team that’s been in the cellar for the past three seasons. Now that the bad is out of the way, let’s dig into the good. After being traded from Washington to Oakland, Treinen flourished as the full-time closer. In 38 innings, he had a 2.13 ERA, 3.08 FIP, and 9.9 K/9 with the Athletics. He was everything owners look for in a closer. Of course, 38 innings is a small sample size, and Treinen was horrible in 37.2 innings with the Nationals before getting traded. He had a 5.73 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and 7.6 K/9 before getting shipped out west.

So how do we know that the second half Treinen is the real Treinen? His success was driven by a deadly sinker/slider combination that baffles even the games best hitters. In 2017, Treinen’s sinker averaged 97.4 MPH, giving him the second-highest sinker velocity in the majors among pitchers that pitched at least 50 innings. This sinker has allowed Treinen to have an elite 61.4% groundball rate throughout his career. That sinker pairs excellently with his nigh unhittable slider. Batters have hit .147 against with a 24.1% whiff rate against Treinen's slider over the course of his career.

After being traded to the Athletics Treinen ditched his four seam fastball for his slider. While in Washington Treinen threw his slider 19% of the time, and threw is four seam fastball 20% of the time. After the trade he upped his slider usage to 30.7% and more than halved his four seam usage down to 9.4%. The results in Oakland speak for themselves. This two-pitch mix is the stuff late-inning relievers are made of, and as the 21st closer off the board Treinen is a great upside pick.

 

Overvalued Relief Pitchers

Greg Holland, Unsigned – 167th Overall, 17th RP

Not only does Holland not have a guaranteed closer job, he doesn’t even have a team. It seems accepted that when Holland finally finds a home he’ll automatically slide into the closer’s role. A month ago that seemed likely, but we’re less than two weeks from opening day and he hasn’t even thrown a pitch in 2018 yet. He’s been linked to Arizona, Atlanta, and Texas recently by Jon Heyman of FanRag sports, though nothing seems imminent. With every passing day it seems more likely that Holland is not going to be a closer for one of the 30 MLB teams by March 29th. 167 is too high to speculate on saves.

Team situation aside, there is doubt surrounding Holland’s skills. He collected 41 saves for the Rockies in 2017, but it wasn’t pretty. Those 41 saves came with a 3.61 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, and 4.08 BB/9. Holland’s fastball also clocked in at 93.8 MPH, three MPH less than his 96.9 MPH peak in 2013. His fastball also got obliterated by hitters in 2017. Batters hit .303 against the pitch with a .236 ISO. Holland’s fastball was never his bread and butter, that was the slider, and the slider is still effective. However, the deterioration of his fastball leaves Holland with only one effective pitch.

There are ways to rationalize Holland’s 2017 struggles. It was his first season back from Tommy John Surgery, and he pitched his home games at Coors Field. Holland actually performed worse on the road (3.90 ERA, 4.58 xFIP) then he did at home (3.34 ERA, 3.56 xFIP). His .252 BABIP against was also unusually low given his .293 career BABIP against and the fact that he pitched in Coors field. Everything is trending downwards, and Holland’s days as a high-end closer seem long gone. Even if he finds a job as a closer, he might be a ratio killer. There are better options going later than Holland.

Alex Colome, Tampa Bay Rays - 127th Overall, 14th RP

Colome broke out big time in 2016, emerging as the Rays closer and locking up 37 saves with a 1.91 ERA and 11.28 K/9. He followed it up by leading the majors with 47 saves in 2017, but his performance took a step back. In 2017 Colome had a 3.24 ERA, 4.32 xFIP, and 7.83 K/9, leaving doubts as to whether Colome can be the lights out closer we thought he was. There was an obvious cause to Colome’s struggles in 2017--his four-seam fastball. Despite gaining 0.4 MPH on his fastball, Colome lost all effectiveness with the pitch. Batters destroyed Colome’s four seamer, hitting .369 against it with a .246 ISO. This caused Colome to throw his four seamer just 32.7% of the time after throwing it 52.1% of the time in 2016. He was forced to rely on his cutter 67.3% of the time. Colome's cutter is elite and it’s the reason he broke out in the first place. But even with his amazing cutter Colome needs to at least have a usable fastball to recapture his 2016 performance.

Colome’s fastball struggled because it became straighter, and because he lost the ability to command it. He lost over an inch of horizontal movement from 2016 to 2017 on an already average four seamer. Colome also found himself unable to throw the pitch for strikes consistently. To demonstrate this, we’ll compare his fastball heatmaps against lefties from 2016 to 2017. These charts were taken from fangraphs.com.

 

He threw the pitch lower, out of the zone, and away from left-handed hitters significantly more in 2017 compared to 2016. It’s not that we expect good results from fastballs in the zone, but Colome needs to have a fastball he can rely on so he can mix it with that devastating cutter. This change resulted in a jump in walks against lefties. He walked lefties 8.3% of the time in 2016, and 12.1% of the time in 2017. He also surrendered 10.9% more hard contact in 2017 to lefties, giving up hard contact 35.9% of the time. Unless Colome can regain his 2016 fastball, we won’t see a performance like 2016. That makes him a low strikeout closer, who’s ERA will likely be north of three, on a team that lost several significant pieces during the offseason. This is not the mid-tier closer to buy.

 

More 2018 MLB Rankings and ADP Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Corey Seager

Targeting Saturday Return
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Exercise Charles Cross' Fifth-Year Option
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Decline Kenyon Green's Fifth-Year Option
Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars Not Picking Up Devin Lloyd's Fifth-Year Option
New York Giants

Jaxson Dart Expected To Sit And Learn In 2025
Arizona Cardinals

Jonathan Gannon Excited For Marvin Harrison Jr.'s Second Season
Alexis Díaz

Alexis Diaz Optioned To Triple-A
Amen Thompson

Fills Stat Sheet In Game 5 Victory
Stephen Curry

Held To 13 Points Wednesday Night
Anthony Edwards

Struggles To Score In Series-Clincher
Rudy Gobert

Comes Up Big In Game 5 Victory
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Battles Back Issue In Game 5 Loss
LeBron James

Undecided On Future
Derrick Jones Jr.

Fine For Thursday
Filip Gustavsson

On Track To Play Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Caps Off First Round With Multi-Point Effort
Eetu Luostarinen

Explodes For Four Points In Series-Clincher
Dylan Strome

Extends Point Streak With Two Assists
Alex Ovechkin

Pots 30th Playoff Power-Play Goal
Kyle Connor

Ties Jets Record With Fourth Three-Point Playoff Game
Mark Scheifele

Injured In Game 5
New York Giants

Evan Neal Moving To Offensive Guard
Chris Sale

Strikes Out 10
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Waive Malik Davis
Houston Texans

John Metchie III Could Be Odd-Man Out
Masyn Winn

Homers Twice In Game 1 Of Doubleheader
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Release Anthony Firkser
New England Patriots

Patriots Not Picking Up Cole Strange's Fifth-Year Option
Justin Martinez

Could Land On Injured List
Tommy Edman

Dealing With Ankle Injury
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez To Make Season Debut On Sunday
Kyle Stowers

Blasts Two Homers
Maxi Kleber

Available For Lakers Debut Wednesday
Buffalo Bills

Elijah Moore Signs With Bills On One-Year Deal
Mike Trout

Pulled As Precaution Due To Knee Soreness
Dylan Moore

Expected To Return From Injured List After Minimum Stay
Jonathan Kuminga

Out With An Illness
Max Scherzer

Completes Another Successful Bullpen Session
Jimmy Butler III

Ready To Play Wednesday
Jared Jones

Begins Throwing Progression
Isaiah Stewart

In Danger Of Missing Another Game Thursday
Alex Iafallo

Drops To Second Line Wednesday
Pavel Dorofeyev

To Be A Game-Time Call Thursday
Tyler Tucker

Ruled Out For Game 5
Chase Dollander

Leaves Early On Wednesday With Blister Issue
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Build Off Last Week's Runner-Up Finish
Sam Montembeault

Remains Out For Game 5
Aliaksei Protas

Likely To Return Wednesday
Gary Woodland

Could See Success At CJ CUP
Alexandre Carrier

A Game-Time Call Wednesday
Patrik Laine

Out On Wednesday
Cam Davis

Making First Appearance At TPC Craig Ranch
Lance McCullers Jr.

To Make Season Debut On Sunday Against White Sox
Griffin Conine

Expected To Miss Rest Of The Season
Bryce Miller

Battles Through Back Injury On Tuesday
Green Bay Packers

Devonte Wyatt's Fifth-Year Option Exercised By Packers
New York Jets

Quarterback Jordan Travis Retires From Football
Taylor Ward

Sitting On Wednesday
Pittsburgh Steelers

Montravius Adams Released By Steelers
Sam Burns

Could Be Due For A Great Week At TPC Craig Ranch
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Picking Up Fifth-Year Option On Jordan Davis
Minnesota Vikings

Myles Price Lands With Vikings As UDFA
Cleveland Browns

NFL Hands Out Fines To Falcons, Jeff Ulbrich For Leak Of Shedeur Sanders' Phone Number
Tyler Glasnow

Shut Down For 10-14 Days
Cleveland Browns

Shedeur Sanders Has A Lot Of Work To Do
Pittsburgh Steelers

Calvin Austin III Has Inside Track On Slot Role
Pittsburgh Steelers

Kaleb Johnson To Be Co-Starter For Steelers?
Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Won't Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Tyler Linderbaum
Ketel Marte

Likely To Return This Weekend
A.J. Puk

Won't Need Surgery, Won't Throw For 2-3 Weeks
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Could Be Forced To Injured List With Oblique Injury
Patrick Rodgers

A Solid Value Play At TPC Craig Ranch
Jamal Murray

Explodes For 43 Points In Game 5
Carson Young

Looking To Recapture Form At CJ Cup
Jayson Tatum

Fires In 35 Points In Series-Clincher
Matt McCarty

An Intriguing Value Play At CJ Cup
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Logs Massive Triple-Double In Game 5
Maxi Kleber

Listed As Questionable For Game 5
Will Zalatoris

Searching For Putting Form At CJ Cup
Rob Dillingham

Out On Wednesday
Jae'Sean Tate

Still Out On Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Listed As Probable For Wednesday
Jack Eichel

Notches Two Assists In Game 5 Victory
Sam Stevens

A Risky Play With Upside At CJ Cup
PGA

Sungjae Im Riding Momentum Into CJ Cup
Sebastian Aho

Sends Hurricanes To Round 2
Ben Griffin

Looking To Stay Hot After First Career Win
Jake Knapp

Looking For More Success At TPC Craig Ranch
Linus Ullmark

Records Shutout In Elimination Game
Brady Tkachuk

Extends Point Streak To Four Games
Mackenzie Hughes

Is An Interesting Option At CJ Cup
Pavel Dorofeyev

Doesn't Finish Game 5
Filip Gustavsson

Exits Early Due To Illness
Aaron Ekblad

Slapped With Two-Game Suspension
Aldrich Potgieter

Trending Downward For CJ Cup
Taylor Pendrith

Plays Well In Houston Recently
PGA

Niklas Norgaard May Not Be Cut Out For Texas
Rasmus Hojgaard

Could Be Up Or Down In Texas
Scottie Scheffler

The Untouchable Favorite At CJ Cup
Tom Kim

A Popular Name To Avoid At TPC Craig Ranch
Austin Eckroat

Looking To Find Success Again At TPC Craig Ranch
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied For 59th At Corales Puntacana Championship
Aaron Nesmith

Upgraded To Available
Bennedict Mathurin

Cleared For Game 5
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Records Third Consecutive Double-Double
William Byron

Ends With A Strong Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Bad Luck Continues With Talladega Crash
Kyle Larson

Has A Career-Best Performance At Talladega
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Brad Keselowski

Talladega Run Ends Early After Crashing
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
Nicolas Dalby

Gets Finished For The First Time
Randy Brown

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ikram Aliskerov

Gets First-Round TKO Finish At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Gets TKO'd At UFC Kansas City
Chase Elliott

Recovers from Speeding Penalty to Finish Fifth
Joey Logano

Finishes Last at Talladega After Disqualification for Missing Spoiler Brace
Ryan Preece

Loses Talladega Race First in Photo Finish Then in Post-Race Inspection
NASCAR

Poor Toyota Strategy Arguably Cost Bubba Wallace Winning Chances at Talladega
Christopher Bell

Unhurt After Hard Contact with Inside Retaining Wall
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF