ESPN ADP Advantages - Overvalued / Undervalued Players

March 2, 2021

Jon Anderson examines recent ADP for ESPN fantasy baseball leagues to identify players who are overvalued or undervalued on the platform for 2021 drafts.

A quick way to get ahead in your league is to take advantage of bad pre-rankings. In every online draft room, the pool of players is ranked for players to choose from. These pre-ranks have a huge influence on how drafts go.

Lots of managers choose when to pull the trigger on the players they want based on where they sit on those rankings, which leads to most drafts seeing most of their draft picks come from the top 20 or so players currently available.

Here, we will take a look at some ADP disparities that are popping up on ESPN when comparing with other sites. Let's start!

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Joc Pederson (OF, CHC) 

The new Cubs lefty power hitter has the biggest disparity of them all, going around 150 picks earlier on ESPN than other sites. This is really strange, and I can't pretend that I know why it's happening. It's true that Pederson is very likely to see a career-high in plate appearances after getting away from that loaded Dodgers roster. That could manifest in a huge home run total, as Pederson has been a premier source of power on a per-PA basis (over the last four years he's homered once every 16.1 plate appearances while the league average is around 27). But does that justify a top-200 pick?

Given that Joc's career batting average is .230 and he's stolen just three bases in the last three seasons, it seems like a pretty easy "no." Maybe a guy that can potentially hit 35 homers should be going inside the top 300 picks, but going inside the top 200 seems silly.

Verdict: Avoid

Carlos Santana (1B, KC) 

Santana's ADP is all over the place, which makes sense given how hard it is to get a finger on the guy. He was an absolute steal in drafts in 2019 when he hit 34 homers while scoring 110 runs, driving in 93, and hitting .281 with a ridiculous .397 on-base percentage. That made him a pretty popular pick at first base in 2020, and he proceeded to hit .199 with very limited production everywhere. Add on a team change to that, and how do you rank him accurately for 2021?

The reason for the high ranking on ESPN might have something to do with more ESPN leagues using OBP as a category. Santana has walked at one of the highest rates in baseball in his career, and that reached a whole new level last year when he drew a walk in 18.4% of his plate appearances. That left his on-base percentage at a pretty strong .349 despite that horrible batting average.

So if you're in a league that uses OBP instead of batting average and you believe that Santana can get back somewhat close to his 2019 counting stats, then his mid-200s ADP on RTS and NFBC are straight steals. However, 157 on ESPN doesn't provide much room for comfort, as Santana will have to really improve on last year's numbers to earn that price.

Verdict: Consider in OBP leagues, otherwise avoid

Sandy Alcantara (SP, MIA) 

Not a ton of love for the Marlins' former All-Star, as Alcantara is going 89 picks later on ESPN versus FanTrax. It is a bit odd that Alcantara is ranked so high on some sites despite his lack of strikeouts (18% strikeout rate in 2019, 22.7% in 2020) and career full of really uninspiring ratios (3.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP in 2019).

Under the hood, however, he is a guy that seems like he could bust out at any time. He has a really enticing four-seamer/sinker combination, both reaching the upper-90's in velocity. He also has an often-used slider/changeup combination which gives him one of the deepest arsenals around. With that big velocity, his ability to get ground-balls, and how many different pitches he has in his bag, he feels like he's underperformed to this point in his career. Maybe players on some of these newer, more hip websites are noticing that while ESPN players are not.

Verdict: Buy Alcantara at pick 200 on ESPN

Shohei Ohtani (DH/SP, LAA)

This is one I can explain. Ohtani is just one player on ESPN, while there are two copies of him on sites like Yahoo (meaning you can only draft him for his hitting or pitching stats with one roster spot, not both). That makes him way, way more valuable on ESPN. That's especially true if you have daily moves turned on, meaning you could start Ohtani every time he's in the lineup as a hitter while also starting him as a pitcher every time he takes the mound.

That makes him the highest upside player in the entire game of fantasy baseball by far and makes it not surprising at all that he has a much higher ADP on sites that give you all his stats with just one roster spot.

Verdict: Buy Ohtani at nearly any price in daily-move ESPN leagues

Andrew Benintendi (OF, KC)

Most fantasy managers have given up on Benintendi's once highly sought-after upside, but managers on ESPN appear much more bullish. We didn't get to see much of Benintendi last year (just 52 plate appearances), but he was really brutal in that time with a 32.7% strikeout rate and a .103 batting average. The Red Sox have now given up on him, shipping him off to the Royals, where he will presumably start every day, at least at the beginning of the year.

He still does have some power/speed upside in him, but he just has not shown any good signs since 2018 when he hit .290 and stole 21 bases. If he can do that again, he will pay off this price on ESPN - but it still wouldn't be a total smash given his seeming lack of power that won't play as well in Kauffman Stadium as it did in Fenway. I think ESPN has this one wrong.

Verdict: Avoid Benintendi on ESPN

Ian Anderson (SP, ATL)

A top-100 pick everywhere but ESPN! Anderson seems like a steal at pick 147, even with the small sample of Major League innings we've seen from him. It is really encouraging that Anderson had immediate success in the big leagues after being rushed to The Show given the Minor League season cancelation.

He has an elite changeup that earned an awesome 18.8% swinging-strike rate last year, and he showed a great ability to keep the ball on the ground with a 52.5% ground-ball rate. Those are two things that make transitioning to Big League hitters much easier. His playoff performance was also encouraging, as he added strong innings on to his sample despite facing brutally good offenses.

At pick 90, the lack of data we have on Anderson would make you a little nervous, but you can't really go wrong near pick 150.

Verdict: Draft Anderson on ESPN

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