Week 14 IDP Fantasy Football Rankings

Chris Gregory gives his IDP rankings and the top streamers to start along with defensive players to sit for Week 14 of the 2021 fantasy football season.

This past Sunday, the Texans' Kamu Grugier-Hill and the 49ers’ Azeez Al-Shaair put in two of the best fantasy performances of the season. Few casual fans knew who these players were, and only a few more know who they are now, but IDP managers are taking notice of these players. With breakouts like this, we are left trying to figure out how it happened and how it can be duplicated. What makes these breakouts tick? What helped these undrafted tacklers ascend to temporary greatness? How can we capture that kind of lightning in every waiver bottle? Of course, the answer to all of these questions is obvious… we just need to target players with hyphenated names. It’s a clear and irrefutable fact that people with hyphenated names are straight “ballers,” as the kids say. Al-Shaair did it, Grugier-Hill did too, and so everyone else with a hyphenated name will!

Of course, it's also possible that the hyphen in these players’ names had nothing to do with their performances. In fact, as crazy as it may sound, it’s possible that these guys excelled not because of their names, but because of their circumstances in Week 13. For example, Grugier-Hill easily had the best fantasy matchup of any linebacker last week, going against the Colts’ rushing attack. What’s even better, Grugier-Hill faced a coach (Frank Reich) who may have purposefully targeted the former Eagle because of his below-average film and piss-poor metrics. The deep stats on Grugier-Hill are indeed bad, with his poor 81.8% completion percentage allowed, his subpar 12% missed tackle rate, and bad PFF grades nearly across the board. So it made sense when the Colts ran through him rather than away from him, didn't it?  Isn’t that the logic teams have always applied to corners, avoiding the good ones and targeting the bad?

The opportunity for Al-Shaair was slightly different, however. His big Week 13 doesn’t appear to have been a case of opponents targeting him or his plus-film at all. Rather, what made Al-Shaair a breakout (and our Streamer of the Week) was his chance to play a full-time role at the center of San Francisco’s defense. Being in the middle of the action, and situated to secure either side of the field against an uneven Seahawks offense, allowed the FAU product to deliver elite production with his above-average speed and agility. It was the perfect confluence of factors that was predictable, yet beautiful at the same time. It was also another example of what IDP managers need to look for when streaming. Sometimes you have an obvious plus-matchup like Grugier-Hill had with the Colts running through Houston. Other times you have an elite opportunity that takes a little more digging to uncover, like Al-Shaair being the only linebacker left in a decent but not elite matchup. Both of those situations were ideal for fantasy, even if they looked different on paper…. And with that said, let’s get to our IDP rankings, shall we?

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Top-30 Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Streamer of the Week: Rashan Gary, Green Bay Packers

Gary was high on talent but low on scheme fit and production when Green Bay drafted the Michigan project in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft. While some of us had doubts about whether he would reach his immense potential, especially standing up in Green Bay’s scheme, the Wolverine is finally making good on his upside.

Gary has five sacks, ten quarterback hits, and two forced turnovers over his past five games. Even better, the Packers get to face the worst pass-blocking unit in the NFL in the Chicago Bears. Whether Justin Fields or Andy Dalton start at QB this week, you have to like Gary as a streamer… though his upside takes a bit of a hit if Za’Darius Smith sees significant snaps. Keep a close eye on Smith and the injury report come Friday.

DL Fade of the Week: Cameron Heyward, Pittsburgh Steelers

Heyward is a terrific DL2 for fantasy managers almost every week, and we cannot in good conscience advise you to drop or bench him regardless of matchup. He’s got only two bad fantasy performances in 12 games, and he is the rare tier-two lineman who offers a solid weekly floor along with serious sack opportunities. That said, this is a good week to expect less from the steady starter.

The Vikings' offensive line currently ranks 2nd in the NFL in Adjusted Sack Rate while giving up a paltry 1.5 sacks per game. While it's true their rookie tackle Christian Darrisaw could miss this game, and that would help Heyward and company elevate their leverage, it’s important to remember Kirk Cousins is a big reason for the Vikings' lack of sacks. He is quick to get rid of the ball and doesn't hesitate to throw it away or dump it off when he's in trouble. There's also a good chance that the Vikings increase their rushing rate this week with Adam Thielen out, which could increase the tackle total for Heyward but further limit his big-play upside.

Top-30 Fantasy Linebackers of the Week

LB Streamer of the Week: Germaine Pratt, Cincinnati Bengals

Pratt looks to be the starting inside linebacker for the Bengals this week, as fantasy mainstay Logan Wilson is unlikely to play after dislocating his shoulder on Sunday. If Pratt does get the call as the starter, you should expect him to play nearly every defensive snap as he did against the Chargers.

The 49ers provide a particularly attractive opponent for Pratt too. San Francisco is the third-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year, and they have committed to that philosophy even more as of late, calling a run on 56% of their plays the past three weeks. While it's true that this rushing attack carries question marks with injuries to Elijah Mitchell and Jeff Wilson Jr., there is hope one of them will play. If neither sees the field, you should still expect the 49ers to try to establish the run while peppering Pratt with screens to Kyle Juszczyk and JaMycal Hasty. It’s also worth remembering that 50.6% of Jimmy Garoppolo’s throws travel nine yards or less through the air, keeping Pratt in range to tip some of those balls.

LB Fade of the Week: Christian Kirksey, Houston Texans

The Texans v. Seahawks contest is a meeting of the two slowest offenses in the NFL, with Seattle ranking last in offensive snaps per game and Houston ranking second to last. That alone is reason to fade nearly everyone on both sides of the ball as it increases the odds we will see fewer than 110 fantasy-relevant plays in the entire game….which is awful if you weren't aware.

When a game projects to have just 56 or so snaps on each side of the ball, fantasy managers must become more discerning about who they trust in that contest. In the case of Texans defenders, you also have to consider that offenses are running into Kamu Grugier-Hill 13% of the time. When you add Grugier-Hill's involvement to the projected slow pace for this game, you're looking at maybe 40 snaps where any Texans defender other than Grugier-Hill will collect fantasy points.  That kind of math forces us to lower our expectations for a traditionally trustworthy player like Kirksey. Consider him a boom-or-bust LB3 this week, with a lower than usual floor.

Top-30 Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Streamer of the Week: Nasir Adderley & Asante Samuel Jr., Los Angeles Chargers

The New York Giants will attempt to run the ball on the Chargers this Sunday and they are likely to have some success, especially if Justin Jones misses time. Unfortunately for the Big Blue, odds favor the Chargers' offense establishing a big lead even if Keenan Allen and Mike Williams sit out with COVID.

If the Giants do end up having to chase Justin Herbert, or if the Chargers simply stack the box against New York's backup quarterback(s), it could mean multiple big plays for the Los Angeles secondary. Remember that possible starter Jake Fromm has never played in an NFL game that counts, and he was just signed off of the Giants' practice squad last week. Also, remember Fromm fell in the Draft because of his weak arm, and his top targets (Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney) look poised to miss the game with injuries. All of that spells a disastrous day for the Giants and a good one for Asante Samuel Jr. and Nasir Adderley…. And for those of you saying Mike Glennon may actually start over Fromm, is it your contention that’s significantly better?

DB Fade of the Week: Quandre Diggs, Seattle Seahawks

Diggs is someone we've pushed on you for the majority of the year, and he's been a reliable DB3 for that entire time. There are a couple of reasons to fade the Seahawks defender this week though. One of those reasons is that Diggs missed practice on Wednesday and is questionable to play. The much bigger reason to lower expectations for him this week is his matchup against Houston, though.

Like we covered in our dissertation on Christian Kirksey above, this week's Texans v. Seahawks matchup projects to be one of the shorter games of the year, with both teams averaging fewer than 57 offensive snaps per game. That's always a concern for fantasy defenders.

What's of even greater concern for Diggs is that Davis Mills is currently projecting to be Houston's starter. The Stanford alum has been more accurate and conservative than many think, especially over his past four starts. During that time, Mills' completion percentage never dropped below 67% and it rose above 70% in three of those four contests. He was also safe with the ball during that span, throwing just three total interceptions and going without a pick in two of those games. Plus, his Intended Air Yards on the season is just 7.2, which is a shallow number for a safety like Diggs, who lines up deep 88.5% of the time.

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