RADIO
Bold predictions are always meant to be taken with a grain of salt, but ideally, they are not a bunch of takes thrown like you-know-what at a wall with the hope of sticking.
These predictions come with backing to make them somewhat substantiated with the obvious caveat that it's playing into a range of outcomes that seem likely but is not guaranteed.
Most of all, it's just fun and should not change your process too much on a week-to-week basis. If you enjoy them or have questions, feel free to follow me on Twitter (@RotoSurgeon) for more!
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Trevor Lawrence Has First 4 Touchdown Game
This isn't about Trevor Lawrence so much so as his offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and passing game coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. Both were exiled from Seattle to Jacksonville, Schottenheimer more recently in favor of Sean McVay protegee Shane Waldron. While the fruits of the Jaguars' offensive coaching have not yet blossomed, this week coming off of a BYE could be the week they seemingly put it all together.
There is legitimate talent on the Jaguars offense aside from first-overall pick Trevor Lawrence. James Robinson has established himself as a respectable threat out of the backfield as a rusher and receiver. Marvin Jones Jr. remains one of the most consistent WRs in the NFL and Laviska Shenault, despite a slow start, is still very skilled in his own right.
The Jaguars may have had this game circled all season and a fun showdown against a debilitated Seahawks team sans Russell Wilson could be in play. Seattle is 21st in defense according to DVOA and could struggle against Jacksonville's balanced attack.
Hunter Henry Scores Twice in Revenge Game
Revenge games aren't real but hell, neither are bold predictions. This is mostly gut analysis backed by arbitrary stats in typically small samples. Henry has been a favorite target of Mac Jones' this year and fellow TE Jonnu Smith is coming off of a shoulder injury. Smith is progressing towards suiting up Sunday but he could be relegated to blocking duties or have a limited snap-share as he has had several times this season.
Henry's playing as well as he ever has and possesses a 4-game TD streak. He should carry it on against the team that drafted him one more for good measure.
Jonathan Taylor Doubles Derrick Henry's Rushing Yards
The Colts are #1 in rush defense while the Titans sit at 25th by DVOA. Derrick Henry will still get his because he's Derrick Henry but this game presents a smash spot for Taylor, especially with how well the Colts' offense has performed of late. Carson Wentz has turned it up several notches from recent years and Michael Pittman Jr. is blossoming into one of the league's better young WRs. Also, RT Braden Smith is due to return from injury.
Meanwhile, the Titans WR2 Julio Jones is out for Sunday and their OL has been banged up for weeks. Henry will be keyed in on while A.J. Brown is bracketed given the lack of options on Tennessee's side.
Joshua Kelley Produces RB2 Line
With Austin Ekeler (hip) unlikely to suit up on Sunday, Joshua Kelley, Justin Jackson, and Larry Rountree III step in to fill the hole left by the Chargers' RB1. While Kelley started the season as a healthy scratch, he has worked his way up to significant playing time. He has played roughly a third of the snaps through the last two games but has not touched the ball much thanks to Ekeler commanding the lions' share of backfield touches.
Kelley was largely disappointing as a rookie last season but did manage to produce 148 on 23 targets. He did that by catching every single target thrown his way! Kelley is not an all-world backup by any means but is capable, has solid size for the position, and should be the closest thing to replicating Ekeler in his absence. If Kelley is targeted at least five times with a goal-line rush or two mixed in, he could easily hit something like 15 PPR points.
Tyler Johnson Finishes 2nd in Buccaneers Targets
Tyler Johnson stepped in for the injured Antonio Brown last week but only produced 16 yards on 2 targets. However, the game was a 38-3 blowout that saw Tampa's top-2 targets Mike Evans and Chris Godwin peppered and their stat-lines boosted.
This week against the Saints' top-tier defense, that same outcome is unlikely. Not to say Johnson will be Brady's first option but he is talented and New Orleans might take one of Mike Evans or Chris Godwin out of the game to force Brady to utilize his other options. Rob Gronkowski is returning from his injury but could be limited while Leonard Fournette will likely have a rough day on the ground against New Orleans' stout front.
Johnson may not blow up this weekend but he could come to produce double-digit PPR points while Brown is out again.
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