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Thunder Dan's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings single-game contests. His Week 6 TNF daily fantasy football advice for the Eagles-Buccaneers matchup.
Tonight's primetime game features the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Philadelphia Eagles. While the Bucs have been laying waste to teams and running up the score in the process, the Eagles have had mixed results so far this year and have a 2-3 record coming into tonight. I'm not usually the one covering showdowns here at RotoBaller but I can assure you I play every Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night!
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Thursday Night Football slate on October 14th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS and shoot me a message or better yet - sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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NFL DFS Game Overview
Tampa Bay (-7) @ Philadelphia (52.5 total)
Key Injuries: Rob Gronkowski (out), Dallas Goedert (out)
Overall DVOA matchup:
Rushing and Passing DVOA matchups:
Thunder Dan's DVOA line matchup ratings:
Any way you slice it, the matchups all favor the Bucs here as they have one of the top offenses in the league that will face a middling Philly unit that has been very poor against the run. Meanwhile, the Eagles' strong running game should have a tough go of it against the Bucs stout defensive front. Tampa tends to funnel production to opposing passing games as a result which is where I am going to focus my Eagles' exposure.
NFL DFS Captains/MVPs
Jalen Hurts ($17,700 DK, $15,500 FD)
I don't usually play QBs in the captain slot, but when it's a dual-threat guy like Hurts or Lamar Jackson then I think we should definitely consider it. The Eagles are going to have to throw in this game in pretty much any game script and Hurts has shown that he can put up some big performances even in garbage time. If the Eagles do keep this one close, then it's likely because had a big day throwing and/or running the ball.
Leonard Fournette ($11,700 DK, $11,000 FD)
The matchup for Tampa clearly favors the run game and we are starting to see Fournette really take control of this backfield. Ronald Jones is an afterthought at this point and Gio Bernard is mainly just a third-down back. Fournette is getting the volume with 23 and 16 touches in the last two weeks. He was on pace for an even bigger game last week but Tampa blew the doors off of Miami in the second half. If the Bucs dominate this one and choose to grind it out, then Lenny should have a chance at being the optimal captain if he gets in the end zone.
Other Captain/MVP Plays: Tom Brady, Zach Ertz (punt for cash)
NFL DFS Flex Plays
Tom Brady ($12,400 DK, $16,500 FD)
On most showdown slates it's a good idea to play both quarterbacks and this game strikes me as one of those games as it has a high total and because we've seen Tampa play in a bunch of these huge totals. Brady has been on another level this season and even when he's facing a decent secondary like the Eagles have, I still give Brady and the Bucs receivers the advantage here. Tampa has shown no remorse for their opponents either and Brady seems hellbent on breaking all the records this year. Play him in all formats with confidence.
Chris Godwin ($9,400 DK, $13,000 FD)
To be completely honest, all the Bucs' receivers are in play here but if I stack one with Brady it's likely going to be Godwin who has the best matchup of the three in the slot. Yes, AB and Evans both had two scores last week but that could raise their rostership on this slate and leave Godwin as the least rostered of the three.
DeVonta Smith ($8,800 DK, $12,000 FD)
Smith has emerged in the last few weeks as Hurts' favorite target and with Tampa yielding the third-most fantasy points to receivers, it makes sense to target the Philly passing game here. Smith has been great with the ball after the catch and Philly has made it a priority to scheme him the ball on short passes to let him have a chance to rack up those YAC.
Other Flex Plays: Antonio Brown, Mike Evans
NFL DFS Value Plays
Zach Ertz ($3,200 DK, $6,500 FD)
Ertz is the most mispriced player on the slate as neither site was able to price him up once Dallas Goedert was put on the COVID list. He should be heavily involved in the passing attack this week and he was already getting a lot of targets (7, 8, 6 in his last three games). Tampa has yielded the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. He's a free square here, don't overthink this one.
Giovani Bernard ($5,200 DK, $7,000 FD)
Gio has managed to get in the end zone in each of his last two games, despite having a relatively limited role in this offense as the passing down back. But that just goes to show you that this Tampa offense is so good that there's always a chance that these part-time offensive players put up solid numbers.
Quez Watkins ($4,600 DK, $7,000 FD)
Watkins is a GPP flyer here but he has some big-play ability and the ability to take the lid off this defense. He's not going to have the same kind of target floor as Ertz or Smith, but he's playing enough snaps that he could find his way into more production this week against a banged-up Tampa secondary.
Other Value Plays: Ryan Succop, Jake Elliot, Bucs D/ST
Good luck everyone! And thanks for checking out my showdown picks! Make sure you read all of the other top-notch NFL content that our team puts out daily!
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