RADIO
The top daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on October 13, 2021. Thunder Dan Palyo provides preseason NBA DFS analysis and sleeper picks for building optimal DFS rosters.
It's been a little while since I dropped a preseason NBA DFS article, but my time here at RotoBaller is divided between NFL, NBA, and MLB coverage! I have been grinding it every day, though, and was able to have my homeboy Kyle Ringstad fill in for me a few times. We have a nice little six-game slate here tonight and with only a few days left in the preseason we could see some teams with "dress rehearsal" minutes where they let their starters play into the third quarter.
This is my general disclaimer. Preseason rotations are never easy to figure out and there's a lot of guessing that goes on for these slates. If you can't stomach the variance, then just sit back and let the rest of us sweat these slates out. I do my best to find some of the best spots, but even I have fairly limited information to work with here so I'll just warn everyone beforehand that things can go a lot differently than we expect quite often.
I highly encourage you to follow me on Twitter and check out the list of beat writers that I follow to keep informed on the latest up-to-date information about each team and their plans for minutes and rotations. In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 10/13/21. You can always find me in the RotoBaller Premium NBA Chat Room or @ThunderDanDFS on Twitter.
NBA DFS Premium Pass
I really hope you consider our NBA DFS Premium membership this season. We will be covering every regular season and postseason slate with our all-inclusive NBA Cheat Sheet and you'll have access to tools such as our NBA Research Station, Matchup Ratings, and Optimizer! Our NBA team brings years of DFS experience and knowledge to the table every day and all premium members have access to our slack chat where we have live Q + A sessions every slate an hour before lineups lock! Use promo code THUNDERDAN to save 10% off your membership!
Preseason NBA Overview
The first thing you need to know is that building lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings this preseason is going to be very different. FanDuel has decided to keep their prices the same (everyone is priced at 6,000) and therefore, you can build a lineup with any nine players you want as long as you roster two PG, SG, SF, PF, and one C. We can leverage that on FanDuel by rostering some lesser-known players since we should expect the well-known players to be more highly-rostered, especially amongst more casual players and fans. All prices listed in the article are DraftKings prices since the FD prices simply don't matter and you can play anyone you want.
DraftKings has priced guys as they would on a normal slate for the most part, but we do get discounts on superstars if we want to cram some into lineups. I like to use a balance of younger players with some veterans that we can project for solid minutes and, honestly, every slate is different to some degree. With only a few days of practice before the first preseason games, I would expect we don't see any big minutes for starters in the first few games with most teams easing their guys into action.
Preseason NBA DFS Injuries/Rest
Knowing who is playing on any NBA slate is half the battle. Getting injury info on preseason slates is a tad harder than in the regular season but here's what we know right now.
ALREADY RULED OUT:
Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, Reggie Bullock, Ja Morant, Caris LeVert, Jaren Jackson Jr., Malcolm Brogdon, Steven Adams, T.J. Warren, Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, De'Anthony Melton, Kyle Anderson, Justin Holiday, Kelan Martin, Tyus Jones, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Markelle Fultz, Chuma Okeke, Michael Carter-Williams, Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Dennis Schroder, Josh Richardson, Jonathan Isaac, Cade Cunningham, Mitchell Robinson, Killian Hayes, Rudy Gay, Donte DiVincenzo, Trent Forrest, Bobby Portis, Semi Ojeleye
DOUBTFUL/QUESTIONABLE:
Kelly Oubre Jr., Killian Tillie, Ziaire Williams, Saddiq Bey, Nerlens Noel, Kenrich Williams, Jared Butler, Rodney McGruder,
SITUATIONS TO TARGET/AVOID
Teams playing their final preseason game: Charlotte, Orlando, Utah
Teams with one more game on Friday: Dallas, Memphis, Indiana, Boston, Detroit, New York, Denver, Oklahoma City, Milwaukee
We usually see the "dress rehearsal" game for starters be the next-to-last game for teams in the preseason, with the final game being one where starters are rested and bench players compete for rotation spots and roster spots. I don't think that applies with Charlotte here as they already have Rozier/Hayward sitting out with injuries so I'm still firing up LaMelo and company unless we get news that they won't play full minutes.
Orlando has been a tough team to figure out all preseason and I'm not messing with them here. Utah hasn't ruled anyone out yet and some of their main guys have only played 1-2 games so far, so I think we see some decent minutes from them.
There are a lot of players already ruled as you can see and we will need to keep watching for any more soundbites as to how coaches in these other games handle minutes. I have more confidence in Knicks starters playing bigger minutes than Bucks starters for example - stay tuned.
NBA DFS Games to Target
I updated my model today with preseason pace ratings, and as you can see teams are playing much faster in the preseason than they normally will during the regular season - creating some fantasy-friendly environments. The Dallas-Charlotte game really pops in pace, while the Denver-OKC and Milwaukee-Utah games both have some big totals. Boston-Orlando looks to be pretty slow and lower scoring, but we have some potential value in Boston with a lot of their starters resting.
DraftKings DFS Top Plays
Let's go rapid fire here, I won't go into too much detail with each player because it's a big slate with a lot of viable options!
LaMelo Ball - PG ($8,100) and Miles Bridges - SF/PF ($6,600)
Pairing these two together on Monday almost won me a tourney as they combined for 43 points, 18 rebounds, and 15 assists. With Hayward and Rozier out, I look for these two players to continue to dominate the usage with the first team and this is a potentially elite game environment here against Dallas. LaMelo has a 32% usage rate this preseason and with his ability to contribute in other stat categories on top of scoring, he's not fadable here if he's getting pretty decent minutes. Don't forget about Cody Martin for value and Bouknight off the bench, too.
Luka Doncic - PG ($8,800)
Luka has been on another planet this preseason from a per-minute production perspective (say that three times fast!). He hasn't played big minutes but is sporting a 32.6% usage rate and 2.21 DK points per minute thus far. He's a top play even if he only plays a half, get him into those lineups.
Nikola Jokic - C ($9,100) and Nah'Shon Hyland - PG/SG ($5,800)
Speaking of elite per-minute production, the Joker has been at 1.91 DK points per minute so far this preseason and has picked up right where left off last year. He's involved on every Denver possession and has the ability to compile a triple-double by halftime when their offense is clicking.
"Bones" Hyland has been really great off the bench for Denver and is securing himself a role for the regular season. A 22% usage rate and 1.2 DKPPM production is very solid for a guy who's seeing a ton of run in these games, he's still a great value where he's priced.
Julius Randle - PF ($9,000)
When Randle plays, I want some Randle exposure - it's that simple! His coach loves him and has never had any issue with playing him 30 minutes even in preseason games. If you want to pivot off Jokic and/or Luka then Randle is a fine play in the same price range.
Donovan Mitchell - SG ($8,000) and Rudy Gobert - C ($8,500)
I'm not entirely sure what the Jazz plan to do here, but I will keep digging. I know that Rudy has only played one game so far this preseason and Donovan only two. So with this being Utah's last game of the preseason, I wouldn't be surprised if both guys got pretty solid run as they did in their last game (Mitchell 28 minutes, Gobert went 19-19 in 23 minutes). We know both guys have a ton of upside and this could be an elite game environment.
Jordan Nwora - SF/PF ($6,400)
On the Bucks side of things, let's see if we hear anything about Giannis's playing time. He could go absolutely berserk even in 20-25 minutes, but I am still skeptical as to how much they want to play him here. If their coach says the starters get run into the third quarter tonight then fire up Giannis, Holiday, and/or Middleton. But one guy you can play no matter what is Nwora. He's been unreal this preseason with a 34.5% usage rate and a 1.39 DKPPM average. He's going to be productive even off the bench and got a nice price decrease from the last slate.
DraftKings DFS Value Plays
My favorite 5k or cheaper plays on DK, listed in the order of my preference (favorites first).
Romeo Langford - SG/SF ($4,600)
Payton Pritchard - PG ($4,800)
Robert Williams III - C ($4,900)
R.J. Hampton - PG/SG ($5,000)
Jericho Sims - C ($5,000)
James Bouknight - SG ($4,900)
Santi Aldama - C ($4,200)
Enes Kanter - C ($4,300)
