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Adam Koffler evaluates whether Indianapolis Colts running back Nyheim Hines will cut into lead RB Jonathan Taylor's touches and fantasy football value in 2021.
Fresh off his new three-year, $18.6M extension, Nyheim Hines got nine carries and eight targets on 47% of the snaps in Week 1 vs. the Seattle Seahawks. Second-year running back Jonathan Taylor played on 54% of the snaps, handling 17 carries while seeing seven targets from Carson Wentz. Together, Taylor and Hines had a target share of 42.9, while four Colts wide receivers (Zach Pascal, Michael Pittman Jr., Mike Strachan, and Parris Campbell) collectively logged a target share of just 40%.
Now, the question becomes, will Nyheim Hines keep holding Jonathan Taylor down, or can Taylor overcome his presence and be the lead man in this Indianapolis backfield?
Let's dig into the numbers and find out.
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Week 1 Workload Split
The 24 opportunities (carries + targets) for Taylor were more than he had in all but three games his rookie season. The 54% snap share is a little worrisome, but that can most likely be chalked up to the negative game script. The positive news for Taylor is that his opportunities were spread out throughout the game. He got nine carries and three targets in the first half, compared to eight carries and four targets in the second half. So despite the 11-point deficit at halftime, Taylor was still utilized in a similar fashion.
Hines, however, was used a bit more in the second half with the Colts in catch-up mode. In the first half, he got three carries and four targets, compared to six carries and four targets in the second half. In fact, Hines had nine opportunities in the fourth quarter compared to six for Taylor. If the Colts are in a competitive game, those fourth-quarter numbers could potentially flip as they did in the first half, with Taylor getting 12 opportunities to Hines’ seven.
Taylor’s Up and Down Workload as a Rookie
Colts head coach Frank Reich was all over the place with Taylor’s workload a season ago. One week, he’d play 35% of the snaps, the next week, he’d play 60% of the snaps, and the following week, he’d be back down to 40% of the snaps. After getting his feet wet and as he gained the trust of the coaching staff, his workload became more consistent down the stretch, averaging a 65% snap share in his last five games.
But one thing was constant throughout the season -- Taylor got more opportunities in wins than he did in losses. In 11 wins, Taylor averaged 19.5 opportunities, while in four losses, he averaged just 14 opportunities.
Subsequently, Hines saw a much higher percentage of snaps in the Colts’ five losses (47.4%) than he did in their 11 wins (33.6%). And what do you know, Hines saw 47% of the snaps in the Colts’ Week 1 loss to the Seahawks in 2021, the same percentage of snaps he saw in the team's five losses a season ago.
What to Expect from Both RBs Moving Forward
Based on what we saw in Week 1, Taylor is in for a big workload this season, especially if the Colts can be competitive in most of their games like they were in 2020. Sure, he only played 54% of the snaps against the Seahawks, but he touched the ball 23 times. He touched the ball on 54.8% of his snaps. To provide some context to that number, Clyde Edwards-Helaire played 72% of the snaps but touched the ball on just 36.2% of his snaps, while Christian McCaffrey played 89% and touched the ball on 52.6% of his snaps.
Jonathan Taylor touched the ball on a higher percentage of his snaps than Christian McCaffrey, let that sink in for a minute!
What’s even better for Taylor is that Marlon Mack and Jordan Wilkins both didn’t see the field in Week 1. It looks like it’s going to be just him and Nyheim Hines shouldering the load out of the backfield for the Colts.
Taylor’s 24 opportunities on just 54% of the snaps should be seen as a major positive heading into Week 2 and beyond. The snap percentage and touches could potentially increase as the Colts look to establish the run and make things easier on Carson Wentz. Hines will always have a role in this offense, as evidenced by the new three-year, $18.6M extension he just signed, but the early usage for Taylor is encouraging to say the least.
You likely drafted him to be a top-10 running back this season, and I have no doubt he’ll live up to that expectation.
As for Hines, expect more work in negative game scripts, but he’s always in consideration as a flex play in PPR leagues as a result of his usage in the passing game.
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