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Why is D.J. Chark not receiving more fantasy love? Not only is he not receiving the kind of fanfare he should be, but there are some who believe Laviska Shenault Jr. will be the Jaguars' No. 1 wide receiver in 2021. That's certainly a possibility, but fantasy managers need to remember just how good Chark can be.
It's like fantasy managers are forgetting he's 6'4", 210 pounds, and ran a 4.34 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, which are all true. Or about the fact he's going to be catching passes from a former National Championship winning quarterback who is said to be the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck because that's true too. Or that he was WR16 in 2019 despite only playing in 15 games, also true.
Let's see what makes Chark the Jags' receiver you should be targeting in 2021 fantasy football drafts.
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Don't Forget About D.J. Chark
When D.J. Chark came out of LSU, he was widely regarded as a raw player, a project by all accounts. His rookie season ended up being a red-shirt season of sorts. He ended up playing in just 11 games and only had 14 catches for 174 yards. This shouldn't have been a big surprise considering his prospect portfolio coming out. While Chark had all the physical gifts, he had to hone his craft. That sometimes takes time, but the physical tools are all still present.
Looking at his physical talents, Chark clearly stands out. His broad jump, vertical jump, and 40-yard dash numbers were all in the 90th-percentile. His wingspan and height are both above the 76th-percentile. While his weight stands out as being below the 50th-percentile, Chark weighed in at 199 pounds and he is now up to 210 pounds. If an NFL general manager created their own ideal No. 1 wide receiver, he might look an awful lot like D.J. Chark. His physical talents give him a ton of upside, some of which he already put on display in 2019.
2020 Wasn't All Bad
While 2020 certainly wasn't the kind of season many were expecting from Chark, certainly not after what he did in 2019, fantasy managers need to look at his 2020 through the lens of context. He battled through rib and back injuries in 2020, ultimately missing three games and playing several others at less than 100%.
To make matters worse, the Jaguars used three different quarterbacks. Out of the three quarterbacks, they finished with an 83.9 quarterback rating, which would've been good for 28th in the NFL. They averaged 6.1 yards per attempt, which would've tied for 32nd with Sam Darnold. This trio completed a total of 62.8% of their passes, which would have tied for 30th. Needless to say, the quarterbacks for the Jaguars left much to be desired in 2020.
Despite these negative circumstances, there are plenty of positives fantasy managers can point to in terms of Chark's 2021 potential. He had the fifth-most air yards per game in the NFL out of qualifying receivers that played at least eight games. Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin, Allen Robinson II, Justin Jefferson, and DeAndre Hopkins are just a few receivers who did not average as many air yards as D.J. Chark.
Despite missing three games, he finished with the 19th-most air yards in the NFL. Air yards tend to be a predictive stat when it comes to future fantasy success and Chark shined in that category in 2020 despite being injured and dealing with subpar quarterback play. The best part as it relates to his 2021 potential, he had the ninth-most unrealized air yards in 2020, according to PlayerProfiler. And now, you remember how poorly the Jaguars' quarterbacks played in 2020? Well, his quarterback is now going to be Trevor Lawrence. Fantasy managers should be expecting a lot of those unrealized air yards to go the other way in 2021.
Out of wide receivers who played in at least eight games and averaged at least four targets per game, Chark was tied for fifth in terms of average depth per target. Interested in knowing who he was tied with?
DJ Chark's average depth of target was t-11th (w/Metcalf, just saying) out of WR's w/at least 4 targets per game. He was 5th in air yards per game and 9th in most air yards unrealized. How are more people not on this train now w/Lawrence throwing to him? Mind-bottling...
— Rob (@RobFFAddict) July 31, 2021
Chark vs. Shenault
Laviska Shenault being the possible No. 1 receiver for the Jaguars in 2021 isn't a far-out statement at this point. The Shenault hype train is full-steam ahead, while Chark is chugging along on dying fumes. Chark and Shenault both missed a number of games last season and only played in 11 together.
In 11 games they played together Chark out-targeted Shenault, 80-60. Shenault was a rookie, but Chark was banged up. Chark also averaged 3 yards more per reception. Why are more people NOT on the band wagon of a 6’4, 210 pound WR w/4.35 speed who just got a Heisman winner at QB?
— Rob (@RobFFAddict) July 30, 2021
Now, Shenault was a rookie and working without a typical offseason. Chark, however, was playing hurt, nursing back and rib injuries throughout most of the season. It wasn't an ideal season for either one of them. Still, in the 11 games they played together, Chark was on pace for 116 targets, while Shenault was on pace for only 87.
Not only that, but Chark's targets were immensely more valuable than Shenualt's. While Chark's depth of target was at 13.8 yards, Shenault's was only at 6.6 yards, according to PlayerProfiler. That ranked 102nd among receivers. Chark also averaged 13.3 yards per catch, while Shenault was at 10.3 yards. Chark also had the fifth-most deep targets in the league with 29, while Shenault had only six deep targets.
These numbers illustrate Chark as having a higher upside. Shenault, on the other hand, will require heavy volume to reach WR2 status as he was generally deployed as a slot receiver and underneath target. Fantasy managers counting on heavy volume for Shenault with Chark, Marvin Jones Jr., and Travis Etienne also vying for targets are likely to be disappointed or hoping for a role change, but with Marvin Jones Jr. and D.J. Chark, two clearly defined outside receivers, they are likely to be disappointed here as well.
Generational QB to Save the Day
It's no mystery in fantasy football you want the big-play guy. Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Jarvis Landry? Give me Beckham. Ja'Marr Chase vs. Tyler Boyd? Give me Chase. Chase Claypool vs. JuJu Smith-Schuster? I'll take Claypool. The reason for this is because the outside receivers get the deeper targets and generally more scoring opportunities. The upside with slot receivers is capped unless they receive a significant amount of targets. One of the things fantasy managers should be on the lookout for is unrealized air yards because it's a predictive stat that shows untapped fantasy scoring potential.
It was mentioned earlier how Chark had the ninth-most unrealized air yards in 2020 despite missing three games and what that tells us is he left a lot of yardage and possibly touchdowns out on the field. That's a great sign for his 2021 prospects. Even if we didn't factor in the monumental quarterback upgrade, we'd typically be counting on some positive regression in that area. In Chark's case, fantasy managers can count on some positive regression and a huge quarterback upgrade to boot.
Last season, only 70.2% of his targets were deemed catchable, according to PlayerProfiler. That ranked 91st among wide receivers. He received 94 targets, but if 29.8% were not even catchable, Chark was really only working off of 66 targets. 66 targets from Gardner Minshew, Jake Lutton, and Mike Glennon. His 2021 quarterback is going to be Trevor Lawrence, a prospect draft analysts have deemed as the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. Safe to say, that's a sizable improvement.
Trevor Lawrence earned a 97.7 @PFF grade on deep passes last year.
D.J. Chark was 1 of 9 WRs to earn a 99.9 PFF grade on deep targets last year.
🤝
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) May 25, 2021
In 2020, Chark racked up 756 unrealized air yards in just 13 games, a pace that would've resulted in 930 unrealized air yards over 16 games. If just half of those unrealized air yards become successful in 2021 with Lawrence under center, he'd go over 1,000 yards (he had 706 yards last year) using only the 13 game stats he put up last year. There are still another three games unaccounted for that would only add to his total.
2021 Expectations
Marvin Jones' arrival was not ideal, there's no way around that. Luckily, the Jaguars are once again expected to have a below-average defense. They were sixth in the NFL last year with 38.5 pass attempts per game, which illustrates there is enough volume in Jacksonville's offense where all three receivers can have a piece of the pie.
Last season, the Jaguars had 616 pass attempts, so how could that distribution look?
- Chark - 127 targets
- Shenault - 121 targets
- Jones - 113 targets
- Running Backs - 100 targets
- Tight Ends - 80 targets
- Backup Players - 75 targets
That kind of volume with his role as a deep ball aficionado has the ability for him to be a great value for fantasy managers in 2021. Standing at 6'4" also makes him a prime red zone target for a rookie quarterback.
If you needed any more reason to get on the Chark train, coach Meyer told Chark he needed to get stronger and play bigger in 2021. Chark responded to that. He played last year around 199 pounds and he came to training camp at 210 pounds. He's 100% healthy entering the new season, he's bigger, stronger, and from the added weight, a requirement of his new head coach, he appears to be very focused.
Chark certainly has WR2 potential in 2021 and he's currently being drafted as a mid-tier WR3. With the recent news of a broken finger needing surgery, fantasy managers can expect his current ADP to dip even more. However, the Jaguars have indicated they fully expect Chark to be ready for Week 1. Chark's current ADP presents with enough value that I have no concerns about taking him at his current spot, but if that ADP drops even more, Chark looks like a steal.
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