Running Back ADP Risers

August 14, 2021

Antonio Losada looks at the fantasy football ADP variation of three running backs and assesses their fantasy football value as their draft values rise in 2021.

We continue looking at ADP risers and fallers through the offseason as we already completed our first run back in June.

Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team.

ADPs are helpful to gauge the average value of players on draft day as viewed by the competition.

Running Backs - ADP Risers

Darrell Henderson - Los Angeles Rams

Not a lot to explain here. Back in the middle of July, fantasy GMs who drafted their squads early got demolished by the news reported from Rams Camp: RB Cam Akers tore his Achilles and was out for the season. Sucked for his GMs, but life's life. Obviously, late-drafters and the very own Rams RB2 until that point, Darrell Henderson, celebrated the news.

Since the moment Akers was announced out, Henderson's ADP started flying up the ADP leaderboards. The 81+ pick rise is just incredible. There are obvious reasons, sure, but that doesn't take from it being a freaking near-seven-round rise that still keeps going up these days. Henderson is the go-to rusher for LA now and his backup in UDFA Xavier Jones, well, let's say doesn't look like too much of a threat to his upside.

Now, do we trust Henderson performing to RB1/RB2 levels given the primary role in the Rams' backfield? Henderson's ADP of nearly 62nd overall is high, sure, but still makes him a rather valuable play given his PFF projection of 215+ PPR points and an RB16 overall finish when all is said and done. If you ask me, I'll believe it when I see it, folks. I know for sure that I won't be betting on perennial-backup Henderson to be my RB1. I'm sorry I'm a coward, but that's the truth. The likes of Mike Davis, Josh Jacobs, and Travis Etienne are available near Henderson's current ADP and project to similar fantasy points while having--to my eyes--much safer paths to get there.

Rashaad Penny - Seattle Seahawks

No, nothing has happened to Seahawks RB1 Chris Carson. Penny is still the team's no. 2 rusher, and he will be on that role for the time being unless Carson falls down injured. Penny, in fact, should be happy to be available and ready to go after undergoing surgery earlier this offseason, so that's a plus for him.

Fantasy GMs have been drafting Penny on slightly higher ADPs recently, though there's been no apparent or clear reason for it other than "what-ifs" here and there. Penny is surely a value to get on your squad for cheap or just as a post-draft, WW target given his 178 ADP at the time of this writing. PFF has the rusher projected to 121+ PPR points in 2021, not bad for an RB2 in an NFL squad, but definitely far from a true stud in fantasy leagues.

Penny should still be good to some FLEX appearances through the season if Carson stays rock-healthy, and obviously comes with the potential upside of featuring as the RB1 in the event of an injury sustained by Carson. The RB1 has missed at least one game in all of the past three seasons and could only suit in 12 during the 2020 campaign, so odds are Penny "starts" at least a couple of games and plays the RB1 role in Seattle's offense a few weekends down the line. Reasonable value at his current ADP; not that much of one if his ADP keeps going up like it did in the last days of July.

AJ Dillon - Green Bay Packers

The Packers are surely committed to not giving fantasy GMs a break, goddammit. Aaron Rodgers looked more out than in for most of the offseason. Every single warm body in Green Bay started to drop down ADP ladders impacted by Rodgers' potential trade away from GB. Then Rodgers finally came back in good spirits. The Packers traded for Randall Cobb. It was all good... or is it?

Enter the Packers' backfield and its most recent development: RB1 Aaron Jones injured his hammy into the second week of August and missed the Aug. 9 practice. This means that Jones either misses time (as in camps, I mean) or that he rushes his way back and has a perennially banged-up hammy that might see his performance affected for the bad come regular-season time.

The near-two-round rise of Dillon's ADP, though, happened before that injury. It can only grow even bigger going forward. Dillon, as you know, is now the Packers' RB2 after Jamaal Williams bolted to Detroit. Dillon projects to an RB36 finish and 137 PPR points over the full 2021 season. He is, simply put, a sunk cost given his projection and his ADP of 103. You're not any sort of positive return on investment from Dillon at that draft position. Some names to target before considering Dillon, all of them with higher projections: Zack Moss, Tevin Coleman, Devin Singletary, David Johnson, Leonard Fournette, and Kenyan Drake.

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