RADIO
Joe Nicely breaks down the FanDuel slate for the 2021 PGA Championship, providing information of not only who will come into the week under-owned but also who should be avoided for your lineups.
Hello RotoBaller PGA crew! It's great to be back with you guys and I appreciate you joining us here at RotoBaller!
In this article we'll discuss some of the standout PGA DFS plays available on FanDuel for the 2021 PGA Championship. While it's impossible to hit on every player, we'll touch on some different plays across all price ranges, breaking the groups down into "High", "Mid", and "Low" price options that are worth considering.
Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for FanDuel, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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2021 PGA Championship - PGA DFS Overview
The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island
7,872 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Paspalum - Designer: Pete & Alice Dye
Created by Pete & Alice Dye to host the 1991 Ryder Cup, the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island is something of an anomaly in the PGA Championship rotation, as the links-style layout that features the most seaside holes in North America more closely resembles an Open Championship venue that anything we normally see in the regular PGA rotation.
The intricacies of this layout are almost too many to list, with constant, swirling winds from the ocean being chief among them. There's also the Paspalum greens that we rarely see on the PGA Tour schedule. Perhaps the most obvious obstacle this week is the massive length of this golf course; a major-championship record 7,872 yards on the scorecard.
Like most Dye tracks, the Ocean Course demands precision off the tee with an emphasis on accurate approach shots, but unlike the majority of the other Dye tracks we see on the PGA Tour schedule (TPC Sawgrass, Harbour Town, Austin Country Club, TPC River Highlands), players won't have the luxury of clubbing down off the tee due to the length of the Ocean Course.
As a result of all these factors, I'll be targeting players that are both long and accurate off the tee, strong on approach, and capable scramblers.
For an in-depth breakdown of this week's course, check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett!
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Ocean Course | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | N/A | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | N/A | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | N/A | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | N/A | 0.55 |
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: OTT
- Proximity: 175+ Yards
- Driving Distance
- Wind Play
- Average Strokes Gained By Round Difficulty (Hard)
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for FanDuel (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event including DFS lineup picks for DraftKings/FanDuel, betting advice and DFS prop picks.
High-Priced FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: This week's article features excerpts from Joe Nicely's 2021 PGA Championship DFS Bible that's available exclusively to RotoBaller PGA Premium subscribers. Gain member access now by signing up with Promo Code: NICE
Rory McIlroy ($12,100)
What a difference a month can make! It didn't take long for Rory to go from struggling to winning. McIlroy's game looked relatively abysmal over the latter half of March and into April, as he missed cuts at both THE PLAYERS and the Masters (with an ugly WGC-Match Play appearance thrown in for good measure). However, Rory emerged from a brief break following the Masters - a period where he worked with new swing coach, Pete Cowen - sporting a new left-to-right strategy off the tee and improved confidence. It led to a (somewhat) surprising victory at Quail Hollow and now makes him the highest-priced player on the PGA Championship slate. We have to assume that his history at the Ocean Course also plays a factor in this price, as he dominated the 2012 PGA Championship at Kiawah Island, winning by a massive 12-shot margin.
Justin Thomas ($11,900)
Big things were expected for Justin Thomas in 2021, but a couple of off-course setbacks stifled the beginning of the year for him. JT finally looked like the golfer we expected in an utterly-impressive ball-striking performance en route to a victory at THE PLAYERS, an event in which he gained a ridiculous 12.9 strokes T2G. Unfortunately, the putter hasn't cooperated since, as a super-human tee-to-green display at the Valspar (+13.2 T2G) was spoiled by a miserable effort on the greens (-6.5 SG: Putting). He's now gained strokes both T2G and on Approach in his last five starts, and grades out second in this field in both categories over the last 24 rounds.
As we head to the PGA Championship, Thomas stands out as perhaps the best player in the world from tee to green, which makes it pretty simple...if JT putts decent, he'll be in contention at the Ocean Course and if he putts above average, he'll win this thing. As we'll dive into throughout this Bible, these Ocean Course putting surfaces are Paspalum, a grass that we rarely see on the PGA Tour. It's a grass that has very little grain and is usually quite slow. As a result, "bad putters" usually outperform their statistics on Paspalum. This narrative would give a bump to JT, as well as other players in the field that aren't known as great putters.
Bryson DeChambeau ($11,600)
Bryson is a tough nut to crack this week. His length will undoubtedly be a huge asset on this massive 7,876-yard layout, but he's yet to post any great results on links-style golf courses. This might be more opinion that fact, but I personally believe that wind really wreaks havoc with Bryson and his detailed process on every single shot. Most great wind players could fairly be described as "feel players" and DeChambeau is certainly the polar opposite of that, as he relies heavily on analytics and mathematics. Bryson is something of a specialized weapon, not one that's meant to be deployed in every situation. He certainly has the ability to surprise this week - his distance will help him overcome a lot - but I just don't see the fit on this layout if the wind is a significant factor.
Jordan Spieth ($11,400)
I love that we get to discuss Jordan Spieth and Bryson DeChambeau so close to each other because they are such a contrast in style. Basically everything DeChambeau isn't, Spieth is...excellent in the wind, a sublime links-course player (2017 Open champion), and a "feel" player of the highest order. We can also toss in the fact that Spieth's ball-striking has made a gargantuan leap this year. He heads to Kiawah ranked third in this field in SG: Approach and eighth in SG: Ball Striking. Rostering him feels like a "square" move, but the same could be said for him prior to the Masters and results don't lie.
Xander Schauffele ($11,300)
Everything is relative. The big knock on Xander is that he's not winning enough, but let's make it clear: winning golf tournaments in today's game is very, very hard. As a result, I'm willing to go a little easier on Schauffele than some, as he seems to always be right in the thick of things in major championships. A deep run at the Masters was his most recent major-championship adventure, and though things ended badly on Sunday, he was still right there...again. His major record speaks for itself: 14/15 career cuts made with six top-five finishes. A breakthrough win is coming and I'll be in on X again.
Viktor Hovland ($11,000)
I'm an admitted Hovland fan, but this feels like a juicy spot for my guy. Love him on long, tough layouts and his ball striking will be a huge asset this week. After a win at Mayakoba to close out 2020, Hovland has only gotten better in '21. He's posted a pair of runner-up finishes this year, as well as T3's in each of his last two starts. He heads to Kiawah Island in red-hot form and ranks third in SG: Ball Striking over the last 24 rounds. Hovland has two victories on the PGA Tour - Puerto Rico Open & Mayakoba - and both of those wins have been on courses with Paspalum greens like he'll see this week. Love this price tag, though he'll likely be the most popular option on the slate thanks to this recent form.
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Mid-Priced FanDuel DFS Plays
Collin Morikawa ($10,900)
The defending PGA champion, Morikawa has continued to play well in 2021, picking up a surgical victory at the WGC-Workday and posting solid results at the Masters (T18) and the RBC Heritage (T7). He's very reminiscent of Justin Thomas in that we feel he's going to be consistently excellent in the ball striking department (first in this PGA field in SG: T2G, Ball Striking, & Approach), but the putter is a huge concern. This was illustrated in his last start at the Heritage, when he suffered through an epically-bad final round on and around the greens. Ball striking is king, so I'm always gonna have tons of interest in Morikawa - and the Paspalum greens should theoretically help - but we've yet to truly see how he handles links golf and windy conditions, which leaves some question marks in this spot.
Tony Finau ($10,400)
Finau has been a major-championship mainstay for me in recent years and it's paid huge dividends in PGA DFS formats. We know he's still chasing that elusive win, but his results in golf's biggest events are nothing to scoff at, as he's posted four top-fives and four top-10s over his last 12 major-championship starts! After a couple of runner-up finishes earlier in the year, his form has cooled off a bit recently, but his proven ability to handle lengthy, major-championship layouts puts him in serious consideration at this relatively affordable price point.
Will Zalatoris ($10,100)
My guy, your guy, everybody's guy. It's been a meteoric rise for Mr. Z since he logged an out-of-nowhere top-10 at Winged Foot last year. He's done everything except win on the PGA Tour with a runner-up finish at the Masters showcasing his elite talents. He did miss his first cut of 2021 at Quail Hollow recently and got off to a sluggish start at the Byron Nelson before closing in strong fashion. The Wake Forest product has repeatedly defied expectations, especially on the big stage and it wouldn't surprise me to see a special performance from him this week.
Cameron Smith ($9,900)
The Aussie is a talented young player that's just beginning to get his due respect from casual golf fans. Strong outings in the last two editions of the Masters have helped raise Smith's public profile and he'll be on more radars this week than normal. He hasn't teed it up since winning the Zurich team event with partner Marc Leishman, but has been in excellent form since late 2020 and hasn't logged a finish worse than T17 since January! His short game is terrific, he's great in the wind, and has proven himself able to handle major-championship layouts.
Abraham Ancer ($9,800)
Abraham Ancer will likely be a very popular DFS option this week and it's tough to argue with that. Ancer has been tremendous as of late and comes to the PGA on the heels of a runner-up finish at the Wells Fargo. The Mexican has made the cut in eight of his last nine starts, posting three top-five finishes in that span. He's gained strokes T2G in each of his last seven starts and grades out fourth in this elite PGA field in SG: T2G over the last 24 rounds. Ancer has proven himself to be adept at handling tough golf courses and brings a nice combination of both upside and safety to the table at this affordable $9.8k price tag.
Low-Priced FanDuel DFS Players
Joaquin Niemann ($9,600)
Like Abraham Ancer, Niemann is a player that boasts a record of strong 2021 results and an affordable price tag. The youngster hasn't missed a cut in nine 2021 starts and has posted a pair of runner-up finishes among those. Both long (fifth in Driving Distance) and relatively accurate off the tee, he grades out 12th in the PGA field in SG: OTT. Niemann's weakness has always been - and continues to be - his erratic short game. That part of his game is improving (he gained strokes ATG in roughly half of his 2021 starts), yet he ultimately ranks just 86th in this week's field in SG: ATG. You can almost view Niemann as "Viktor Hovland Lite" and he's squarely in play this week despite his shortcomings around the greens.
Scottie Scheffler ($9,500)
The talented second-year pro almost nabbed his first PGA Tour victory at the WGC-Dell Match Play before ultimately falling to Billy Horschel in the finals. It's otherwise been a solid, if unspectacular year to this point for Scheffler. He's gained strokes T2G in each of his last seven measured starts and a top-five finish at last year's PGA, as well as a pair of top-20s at the Masters illustrate his ability to handle major-championship conditions. Plenty of length off the tee and a very underrated short game makes him an intriguing dark horse this week.
Matt Wallace ($8,900)
The first of several sub-$8k players that are viable this week, Matt Wallace comes into this week in tremendous form and would also appear to be a great fit for the layout. The Englishman has made four-straight cuts with a T3 at Valero and a T6 at Wells Fargo as the highlights. He heads to the Ocean Course accompanied by an always-dependable short game (23rd in field SG: Around The Green) and hot ball striking (10th SG: T2G).
Jason Kokrak ($8,700)
Jason Kokrak is a player that seems puzzlingly underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings this week. Despite grading out 26th in this field in SG: T2G and posting top-10 finishes in three of his last five starts, Kokrak comes in at just $8.7k on FD. This borderline "misprice" will be reflected in his ownership, but he's a value option that's certainly worth taking advantage of, as his game is on a nice trajectory and he possesses the length to handle this massive layout.
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