NFL Draft Reaction - WR ADP Fallers

May 8, 2021

Antonio Losada takes a look at the ADP variation of multiple wide receivers in the weeks before and after the last NFL Draft and assesses their situations and the reasons behind those moves.

We've been examining some of the top ADP risers following the outcomes of the 2021 NFL Draft, including a look at RB Risers, WR Risers, TE Risers, and QB Risers. We now shift to the other side of the equation with some fallers.

With free agency and the draft finalized, it makes sense to look at how ADPs are varying during the last few days as we start to gear up for our fantasy draft season. In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from just before the past NFL draft to right after it finished, using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period.

Today, it's time to look at some wide receiver fallers.

Wide Receivers - ADP Fallers

Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles

Writing this series of articles is fun. If you are reading these posts, you will find something interesting when it comes to the discussed wide receivers on both the Risers and Fallers columns. That's because Reagor and Tee Higgins (read below) are teammates of DeVonta Smith and Ja'Marr Chase respectively, two of the three featured Risers in the other draft-reaction posts.

It makes sense to see Reagor's ADP go down more than a full round after the Eagles' moves in the 2021 draft. Philly had moved on from Carson Wentz's shaky quarterbacking earlier this offseason. That put sophomore Jalen Hurts at the top of the pecking order to man the Eagles' pocket. On top of that, Philadelphia drafted WR DeVonta Smith with the 10th overall pick, making him the third receiver selected in this year's event. No joke, that is.

That's because, in the past five seasons, pretty much every WR drafted as a first-rounder (14 of 19) got to play at least 10 games, with 13 of those getting targeted 54+ times. If only because of the price Philly paid for Smith, he will command a lot of ball in this offense. That doesn't kill Reagor's upside because the Eagles' receiving corps is far from packed, but it obviously bites into his projected opportunities and touches and that's why things are leveling between Reagor's ~170 ADP and Smith's ~100 ADP.

Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens

These are the top-three seasons in rushing attempts by a QB in the past 21 years:

1. 2019 Lamar Jackson (176 ruAtt)
2. 2020 Lamar Jackson (159)
3. 2018 Lamar Jackson (147)

I'm not making those numbers up, seriously. But, those are counting stats void of context, so we can do better. These are the top-five seasons in Pass: Rush attempts ratio in the last 21 seasons:

1. 2018 Lamar Jackson (1.2 pass attempts per rush attempt)
2. 2020 Taysom Hill (1.4)
3. 2011 Tim Tebow (2.2)
4. 2019 Lamar Jackson (2.3)
5. 2020 Lamar Jackson (2.4)

I think that's enough to know what this kid Jackson is about and what the Ravens' offense predicates: tons of ground game and not so much air. That was already going to hurt Brown's upside getting into this year's fantasy draft season after finishing 2020 with 183 PPR points on 16 games, played well for WR36. That's not bad considering his situation and Baltimore's environment, but that's also not great for a wide receiver, full stop.

Now adding wood to the fire, the Ravens opted to bolster (?) their offense with the addition of often-injured Sammy Watkins before the draft, and with potential WR1/2 and no. 27 overall pick Rashod Bateman in last week's event. We have been clamoring for additions to the Ravens' receiving corps for quite some time now, and here we have them. This helps Hollywood in that he won't be the lone bright point in Baltimore's offense, sure, but the downside is larger as Bateman will take more than a few of the already scarce targets going toward Ravens receivers (league-lowest 221 WR-targets in 2020).

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

As I already said in Jalen Reagor's blurb (read above), Higgins is the second receiver to have a teammate on the opposite side of this column with a rising ADP. Cincy added a former teammate of Joe Burrow's to the fold in LSU's Ja'Marr Chase and the team now features a crowded receiving corps that has three very evenly talented players in Higgins, Chase, and Tyler Boyd--assuming Chase lives up to the hype and the projections, obviously.

Just last season, both Higgins and Boyd put up eerily similar numbers: Higgins finished as the WR28 to Boyd's WR29; Higgins got 67 receptions to Boyd's 79; Higgins was targeted 108 times to Boyd's 110. The two receivers closed 2020 separated by a seemingly inexistent 2-FP difference as the rookie put up 194.6 PPR points and the fifth-year Boyd racked up 192.6.

Those were good numbers that made them borderline WR2s on the year, but those numbers also came with a struggling and underperforming, washed-up A.J. Green playing the WR3 role. Ja'Marr Chase should reach some level of play close to that of Tee Higgins last season, and that will mean there will be three equally big mouths to feed in this offense, which fantasy GMs (reasonably) are not liking that much. Joe Burrow is surely licking his chops, but Tee Higgins (and Tyler Boyd, keep that in mind too) are going to drop a bit in upside/ADP after Chase's arrival.

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