NFL Draft Reaction - QB ADP Risers

May 4, 2021

Antonio Losada takes a look at the ADP variation of multiple quarterbacks following the 2021 NFL Draft and assesses their fantasy football value heading into draft season.

I am going to start this column by reviewing the concept of ADP, which you are likely familiar with. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is, actually, a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is going off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know the average value of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against.

By now, with free agency and the draft finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to look at how ADPs are varying during the last few days as we start to gear up for our fantasy draft season. In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from just before the past NFL draft to right after it finished, using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period. Today, it's time to look at some quarterback risers.

Quarterbacks - ADP Risers

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers were in a very different position to the other two teams drafting QBs in the top-three of this season's draft: the Jaguars and New York Jets. That's because the Niners, if you remember, still have a QB1 on their roster in Jimmy Garoppolo, who they might find hard to find a taker for after the Pats drafted their own long-term solution by selecting Mac Jones in the middle of the first round.

Garoppolo is entering his age-30 season, which isn't too old for a QB, but he's topped 90 PPR points just once in his career, and perhaps more worrying, has not played/started more than six games other than in 2019 when he completed (somehow, miraculously?) the full 16-game season in his third year playing in San Francisco. While it is yet to be known how San Fran will proceed with its QB pairing, the truth is that you don't spend the third overall draft pick on a quarterback if you don't plan to make him your leader as soon as possible.

Fantasy GMs have jumped into Lance's bandwagon in no time, raising his ADP from a near-200 pick to a top-150 selection in which has been the highest rise in fantasy draft stock for all eligible QBs before/after the NFL draft. Considering Jimmy G's PPR average of 10.7 points per game in 2020, it definitely makes sense to try and bet on the rook taking over and putting up better numbers than the middling--and that is assuming availability--Garoppolo. The receiving corps is stacked, Lance brings mobility, and Jimmy might be moved. If Garoppolo stays, this is more of a what-if play, but the minute the vet is traded it will all be on Lance's hands to succeed.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

I was surprised to find Goff with the second-highest rise in ADP pre-and-post draft. The Lions, remember, traded for Goff all the way back on Jan. 31 making him their new starting QB. This is definitely a new era after Detroit spent the last 12 (!) seasons with Matthew Stafford--now a Ram--manning the Lions offense from the pocket. And Stafford, like it or not, set a quite high bar for Goff to go against in terms of performance this upcoming season.

Stafford completed last year playing all 16 games on the schedule after missing half of 2019 due to injury. He was a little bit worse last season (16.3 PPG) than he was in 2019 (21.1), but that lower outcome also came on double the sample of games, which makes up a bit for that difference. On a total/counting FP basis, Stafford was good for 260 FP. That compares to Goff's 240 FP on 15 GP with an average of 16 FPG. The fantasy tallies couldn't have gotten closer between these two, that's for sure, and both QBs finished in the middle of the second tier of fantasy quarterbacks in 2020 (Stafford QB16, Goff QB19).

The Lions and Rams operated on very similar passing numbers last season; Stafford threw for 26 TD compared to Goff's 20. Even the slightest of upticks there should put Goff in the realm of the QB1 tier in 2021. To make things better--and although Detroit didn't bolster its receiving corps much through the draft other than adding Amon-Ra St. Brown--the Lions took top-tier tackle Penei Sewell to protect Jared Goff, and signed WR Tyrell Williams and WR Breshad Perriman in mid-March. The Lions won't be leading many games nor contending, but Goff will have every possible chance to rack up points from behind on a heavy passing game as Detroit finds itself trying to come back from deficits on a weekly basis.

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

This one was definitely expected. Moving up to get Fields has been praised as one of the best decisions of the 2021 NFL draft after Chicago ponied up and traded a throve of assets to land their QB of the future--and the present, that is. Chicago moved from the 20th to the 11th spot in the first round letting go two first-rounders, a fourth, and a fifth for it. Not a cheap move, but definitely one that could very well pay off if Fields becomes what the Bears thought Mitchell Trubisky was going to turn into.

Chicago has been dealing with middling quarterbacks for a while now--ask WR Allen Robinson. In the three seasons Robinson has spent in the Windy City, the Bears have featured two quarterbacks for at least three games each season, and just this past year they ran a two-man pocket with Trubisky starting nine games and Nick Foles doing so seven times. It was a true mess, with Trubisky starting two, then benched in the middle of Week 3, and ultimately coming back for all final six games of the season. Their stat samples were rather similar by the end of the year, and the former put up a respectable (to a certain extent) 15.4 PPG compared to the latter's 11.6 mark.

Fantasy GMs know what's popping in Chicago. There is just no way the Bears are so incompetent as to throw Andy Dalton out there when someone like Justin Fields is available and waiting on the sidelines, especially considering the price they paid to get him in tow. Fields won't have many weapons when it comes to the passing game (ARob is awesome, sure, but other than him, the next-best receiver is... Darnell Mooney? Good, not great), but it is not that he finds his bread and butter all through passing: Fields' rushing upside is incredible, has pin-point accuracy, and while Trevor Lawrence is still the consensus no. 1 rookie (fantasy and real-life), odds are Fields put on a serious fight for that designation by season's end.

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