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Welcome to MLB Opening Week! It was a long offseason, but we have finally reached the beginning of the MLB season. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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A couple of games we can look at today include the Cubs at Pirates, Royals at White Sox, and Brewers at Cardinals.
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Cubs @ Pirates
Tyler Anderson more than 4.5 strikeouts and Jake Arrieta more than 4.5 strikeouts
Tyler Anderson just faced this Cubs' squad on April 3rd and managed to mow down seven of them, so this prop should probably be set at 5.5 and not 4.5. The Cubs are also striking out at a 27.1% clip vs. left-handed pitching, which is the 13th highest in baseball. They are also only posting a .176 AVG and a .259 OBP against lefties. Anderson is no stud by any means, but he should be able to get more than 4.5 here.
Jake Arrieta had a solid season debut against this Pirates in which he went six innings and allowed one run and struck out five. The Pirates have struggled quite a bit in 2021 and this was expected. They are currently posting a K rate of 26.3% rate vs. right-handed pitching, which is the 11th worst in baseball. Current Pirates are also posting a combined K rate of 24% vs. Arrieta and are only producing a .626 OPS across 102 plate appearances.
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Royals @ White Sox
More or Less Contest
Lance Lynn more than 5.5 strikeouts and Brad Keller more than 3.5 strikeouts
Lance Lynn struck out six Angels in 4 2/3 innings pitched in his debut, and striking out Angels is never an easy task. He will be facing the Royals in this one and although they are only posting a 23.6% K rate vs. right-handers, they just whiffed a combined 14 times against Indians' right-handers. Lynn should also be more stretched out in this one and be able to go five or six innings, which makes this number of 5.5 just a bit low for me.
Brad Keller is a bit scarier in this one as he just got blown up in his first start by the Texas Rangers. That being said, he will be facing a White Sox lineup that is currently striking out at a rate of 26.2% vs. right-handed pitching, which is ranked the 12th worst in baseball. Keller is not known as a high strikeout pitcher, but he did achieve this total in six of his nine starts in 2020. Let's hope last week's start against the Rangers was an anomaly and Keller can get over the hump in this one.
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Brewers @ Cardinals
Corbin Burnes more than 16.5 pitching outs and Adam Wainwright more than 14.5 pitching outs
Corbin Burnes went 6 1/3 innings in his first start, so it is not unreasonable to expect him to go 5 2/3 in this game against the Cardinals. He should be able to rack up the strikeouts in this game as well seeing at the Cardinals are currently putting up a K rate of 27.7% vs. right-handers to begin the season. They are also posting just a .158 ISO vs. righties as well as a .284 OBP, which leads me to believe Burnes should have a solid day and be able to reach the sixth inning again.
Wainwright struggled in his first start as he allowed six earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings pitched against the Reds last week. He gets a solid matchup on paper vs. the Brewers as they have struggled in all facets of the game vs. right-handed pitching. They are posting a K rate near the top of the league with a rate of 30.8% They also are posting an ISO of just .093 and an OPS of just .519. Wainwright had a solid spring and likely just ran into a buzzsaw in the Reds last week as they have been on an absolute tear offensively to begin the season. He should be able to get through five in this one and go over the prop total.
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