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Mark McWhirter looks at Detroit Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay's dynasty value to see if he is a strong fantasy football option for 2021 and beyond.
There are plenty of moving parts that make Kenny Golladay’s long-term outlook perplexing to pinpoint.
For starters, Golladay is set to be a free agent and could play for an entirely new team next year. Secondly, he will have a brand-new quarterback and coaching staff even if he is franchise-tagged or extended in Detroit. Add in the fact that Golladay is coming off an injury-riddled season, and you have plenty to ponder when determining where to select him in dynasty start-up drafts or how to properly value him in dynasty trades.
Let's try to figure out what Golladay's proper value is for dynasty leagues before free agency officially gets underway.
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Greener Grass?
When evaluating Golladay, it is impossible to overlook the giant question mark of which uniform he will don this coming season. At 27-years-old, Golladay is in the prime of his career. From 2018-19, he was one of the most productive receivers in the NFL, posting back-to-back seasons with over 1,000 receiving yards. His tantalizing skillset matches the production, as he possesses the size, route-running prowess, and big-play ability of a legitimate number one option. NFL teams recognize this and Golladay’s next contract is sure to reflect his status as an upper-echelon wideout. Dynasty GMs rostering Golladay can take solace in this, as he is likely to slide in at the top of most depth charts and should command a healthy target share wherever he ends up. That doesn’t mean Golladay is team-proof, and there are surely unfavorable destinations within the realm of possibility, which could present an opportunity to test the Golladay trade market in your league.
Golladay represents an interesting name in fantasy trade markets, as many GMs are likely wondering whether to buy or sell. The answer is, quite simply, both. Those rostering Golladay should be aware of the possibility that his 2021 team will be run-heavy or feature inconsistent quarterback play. Floating such a big name on the trade market could net a haul that keeps you competitive in the present and future while avoiding that risk. On the other hand, attempting to buy a WR1 for a WR2 price is never a bad idea, should the Golladay manager in your league be nervous about his immediate future.
Going Deep
Golladay emerged as a bona fide number one receiver in 2019 with a breakout line of 65 receptions on 116 targets for 1,190 yards and eleven touchdown grabs. Those numbers saw him finish as the WR6 in half-PPR with 215.5 fantasy points. Perhaps more importantly, the breakout occurred just as expected after a strong 2018 season in which Golladay posted 1,063 yards on 70 receptions. The main difference between those two seasons was that Golladay’s touchdown total was sorely lacking in 2018 despite a penchant for big plays, as evidenced by his 15.2 yards per reception. That big-play ability progressed even further in 2019, with Golladay accounting for 18.3 yards with every catch.
Golladay’s successful two-year run had him pegged as a locked-in WR1 heading into 2020 drafts. Unfortunately, he missed significant time due to injury last year and checked in as the WR103 at the season’s end. He was still fantastic during his short time on the field, however. Golladay played in only five games, but he barely saw the field in the fifth of those games and failed to catch a single pass during it. Eliminating that game and extrapolating his four full games, Golladay was on pace for 80 catches on 112 targets for 1,352 yards and eight touchdowns. That line would have resulted in 223.2 fantasy points and ranked him as the WR8.
The obvious red flag that bears mentioning is that Golladay’s career-long quarterback, Matthew Stafford, now tosses footballs in Los Angeles. With Golladay’s next team uncertain, we are best suited by examining how Golladay’s skillset meshes with that of new Lions quarterback Jared Goff.
Golladay has made a living on big plays. Finishing 42nd in receptions in 2019, and 33rd in 2018, the volume has not been key to his success. In contrast, Golladay has finished 17th, third, and fifth in yards per reception over the past three seasons. This past season saw Matthew Stafford reach newfound heights in terms of his deep ball accuracy, as he finished ninth in the NFL with a completion percentage of 56, according to Brick Wall Blitz, which was far better than Jared Goff’s mark of 44.19%, which ranked 19th. Unfortunately, Golladay was not around much to enjoy Stafford’s long bombs. Looking beyond last season, we see a trend that appears more promising for Golladay should he indeed remain a member of the Lions. In 2019, Jared Goff tied Stafford with a deep ball accuracy mark of 44.2%, according to Football Outsiders. While that is far from a strong number, it shows that Golladay is able to succeed even without high-end deep ball accuracy from his quarterback. Looking at 2018, Goff actually ranked eighth in the NFL in completing 52.8% of his deep ball attempts, which blew Stafford’s 40.9% away.
Beyond deep passing, Goff’s and Stafford’s average numbers since 2017 look extremely similar. Goff has averaged 367 completions on a 64.2 completion percentage for 4,408 passing yards with 26 passing touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Meanwhile, Stafford has averaged 361 completions on a 65.2 completion percentage for 4,230 passing yards with 27 passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Goff’s average yards per attempt sits at 7.75 over that span, not far from Stafford’s 7.95. While Stafford is clearly an upgrade for the Rams, Goff appears plenty capable of providing similar juice when talking strictly fantasy. For what it’s worth, we did see Golladay perform for eight games without Stafford in 2019. During that span, Golladay played with quarterbacks Jeff Driskel and David Blough, and still managed a pace of 60 receptions on 108 targets for 1,100 yards, and eight touchdowns.
As for the competition in Detroit, the Lions did bring in Tyrell Williams, which could mean a possible departure for Golladay. Having said that, Marvin Jones Jr., Danny Amendola, and Mohamed Sanu Sr. are all scheduled to be free agents, so the Lions needed to add depth at the receiver position regardless of Golladay’s status. Williams is known for his ability to win downfield, which could set him up to be a replacement for Golladay, but he could just as easily serve as a direct replacement for Jones. Williams had averaged 69 targets per season since 2017 prior to missing last year due to injury. Fortunately, Jones, Amendola, and Sanu combined for 207 targets last season so there should be plenty of opportunity for Golladay if he does stick around. Quintez Cephus is primed for a bigger role after receiving only 35 targets in his rookie season, and D’Andre Swift will be a factor in the passing game after accumulating 57 targets in only 13 games. Perhaps a bigger concern would be further emergence from breakout tight end T.J. Hockenson, who saw his target total jump from 59 to 101 last year, and whose large frame provides serious competition in the red zone.
Regardless of the target competition in Detroit, Golladay will be the clear top weapon in the passing game. Further, Golladay has shown he can get it done on limited volume thanks to his big-play ability and touchdown upside. Unless the Lions spend serious draft capital on a wide receiver, the team will enter the new season without a prospect capable of developing into a true number one option, meaning there are no fears of someone akin to Calvin Ridley or Chris Godwin emerging behind him. It is possible that the Lions move on from Goff at some point in the next few seasons, and such a move would throw Golladay’s value into question, but that is getting too far ahead of ourselves. In dynasty, it is important to focus on the next two-to-three seasons, as our ability to predict beyond that decreases greatly.
As if there weren’t already enough questions to answer surrounding Golladay, the Lions have also brought in a new head coach in Dan Campbell and a new offensive coordinator in Anthony Lynn. Lynn, being a former running back, has the reputation of a run-first coach. However, the Chargers have been middle-of-the-pack in terms of offensive balance over the past three seasons. In 2018, the Chargers passed the ball 58.85% of the time, ranking 17th compared to 60.35% for the 14th-ranked Lions. In 2019, Los Angeles threw the ball on 63.29% of their plays, good enough for sixth in the NFL, topping Detroit’s 14th-ranked mark of 60.14%. Last year, Detroit threw it 62.97% of the time, fourth in the league, while Lynn’s Chargers finished 17th in that department, throwing it on 58.65% of plays. While the switch to the Lynn-Campbell coaching combination is likely to result in a slight decrease in overall passing attempts, it shouldn’t be the type of switch drastic enough to sink a player of Golladay’s caliber.
Dynasty Outlook
At this time, Golladay represents a potential value for those teams looking to buy, and a potential trade chip to cash in for those wary of wide receivers changing teams. Offering a WR2, RB2, or promising prospect, plus a late first-round pick, could be enough to acquire a player who projects to be a WR1. For those in a rebuild, such a haul is a solid way to jumpstart your next contender. It all shapes up as Golladay being a name that should be being discussed in nearly every dynasty league right now.
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