NHL DFS Power Play for FanDuel, DraftKings: DFS Value Plays, Goalies Matrix, Stacks (1/13)

January 12, 2021

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for January 13th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, January 13th, 2020 at 5:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/13

• Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-140)- 6U
• Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-125)- 6O
• Chicago Blackhawks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-250)- 6.5U
• St. Louis Blues vs. Colorado Avalanche (-135)- 5.5O
• Vancouver Canucks vs. Edmonton Oilers (-120)- 5.5O

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific. In addition, the data used will be based on last season and will be updated after the first week or two once we get a solid sample size from the brand new hockey season.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. In addition, the data used will be based on last season and will be updated after the first week or two once we get a solid sample size from the brand new hockey season.

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc). When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

Centers - NHL DFS Lineup Picks

• Connor McDavid ($8,400 DK/ $8,800 FD) - McDavid is one of the premier players in the NHL and is every bit of his high price tag. McDavid was second in points in the entire NHL last season (97), top- 10 in total goals scored (34) and carried a 1.52 goal per game mark which was second overall in the league. McDavid has torched Vancouver over the past several years as he has scored a point in 11 straight games against them (4 goals, 12 assists). McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon are the top two centers to consider and they would be my 1A and 1B options on the slate.
• Sean Couturier ($5,700 DK/ $7,200 FD) - The pricepoint on DK is too good to pass up as the Flyers offense should go lower owned in tournaments on this slate. Couturier skates on the top line as well as the top powerplay line, and with the Flyers getting the home-ice advantage, Couturier and his linemates could draw a much better line match and not get stuck matching with the Crosby line.
• Dylan Strome ($3,100 DK/ $4,600 FD) - With all of the injuries to the Blackhawks, Strome looks to be slotted into the top line alongside Alex Debrincat and Patrick Kane which makes him a great value on this slate. He will see plenty of ice time and skating alongside one of the best scorers on the slate will only boost his chances of getting a point. With his price point being so low, he makes for a great one-off play in all formats.

Other centers to consider: MacKinnon, Point, Kadri

Forwards - NHL DFS Lineup Picks

• Patrick Kane ($7,600 DK/ $ FD) - From a tournament perspective, Kane could be lower owned leverage play on this slate. The Lightning are the biggest favorites and Vasilevskiy should be a chalky goalie option so rostering Kane in tournaments gets you leverage on the field. When looking at the Blackhawks, they are missing several key offensive pieces for a while so Kane might need to carry the offensive load and fire at will whenever he gets the chance.
•  Brendan Gallagher ($6,300 DK/ $ 7,300 FD) - One of the more underrated players in the NHL is Brendan Gallagher. He led the Canadiens last year in total shots taken (226) while also being tied for first on the team with 22 goals scored on the season. Both Toronto and Montreal play with a solid pace and opportunities will be created. Gallagher averages close to four shots per game and in his three games last season against Toronto, he registered 16 total shots while also notching two goals and two assists.
• Mike Hoffman ($3,200 DK/ $6,000 FD) - Hoffman will probably carry the most ownership on the entire slate based on his price. As you can see, DK has him priced all of the way down in the low 3k range which is just too cheap while FD has him priced up at a normal price range.  Hoffman is slated to start on the Blues second line as well as the top power-play line and when factoring in the fact that he has registered 50+ points and 200 shots in each of his last five seasons, he is tough to fade in all formats.

Other wings to consider: Stamkos, Burakovsky, Thornton

Defense - NHL DFS Lineup Picks

• Cale Makar ($6,000 DK/ $6,100 FD) - Makar is one of the best young defensemen in the game and is a vital offensive weapon for Colorado. Makar ranked second in total points scored (50) on the Avs while also ranking second in total assists (38). In three games against the Blues, Makar produced two goals and two assists while three of those points came on the powerplay.
• Quinn Hughes ($5,100 DK/ $5,500 FD) - The young Canucks defenseman really made a name for himself last season as he totaled 53 points which were tied for third-best on the Canucks roster. Hughes was also tied for the team-high in assists while also finishing second with the most time on ice per game (21:53 minutes).  Hughes sees extra time by skating on the top power-play unit which is where he does a lot of his damage as he totaled 25 points on the powerplay last season.
• Duncan Keith ($4,200 DK/ $5,100 FD) - If you do choose to go against the grain and use Chicago, Duncan Keith is priced way down on DK for someone who will skate both on the top defensive pairing and while also skating on the top powerplay unit as well.

Other defensemen to consider: Hedman, Parayko, Bear

Goalies - DFS Lineup Picks

• Philipp Grubauer ($8,200 DK/ $8,400 FD) - Grubauer had a very solid 2019-2020 season as he went 18-12-4 while posting a 2.63 goals allowed average and a .916 save percentage. Grubauer faced the Blues five times and was able to record three straight wins against St. Louis. The Blues will be without one of their best players for most of the season in Vladimir Tarasenko which does impact their offensive firepower as a whole.
• Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,400 DK/ $8,600 FD) - The chalkier option on this slate will be Vasilevskiy and he should be rostered for several reasons. Vasilevskiy is coming off of a strong season where he went 35-14-3 while posting a 2.56 goals allowed average and a .917 save percentage. The Blackhawks were middle of the pack when it came to scoring goals last season but they also tend to fire off plenty of shots which is positive from a fantasy goalie standpoint. Chicago will be without several key pieces to start the season as captain Jonathan Toews, Kirby Dach, Carl Soderberg, and Alex Nylander will all be out for the time being so this bodes well for Vasilevskiy.
• Carter Hart ($7,800 DK/ $7,700 FD) - Hart is more of a tournament play on this slate for a few reasons. While the Penguins are a tough matchup overall, Hart has been dominant on home ice throughout his career as he has posted a 67% win percentage, a .928 save percentage, and a 2.23 goals allowed average at home. On the road, Hart has struggled as he has only won 9 games in 24 starts while having a save percentage of .888 and a 3.31 goals allowed average. The Flyers won their only game against the Penguins last year on home ice and it was a 3-0 shutout

Note: If you do roster a goalie in cash games, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Chicago is my hedge team for opening night as their top line is underpriced and opens up salary relief for a more expensive stack to pair with.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

• TB 1- Palat, Point, Stamkos- Tampa is the largest favorite on the slate and get a Blackhawks team that surrendered 3.06 goals per game and 3.17 goals allowed while on the road all of last season. Chicago will most likely roll out Malcolm Subban as their starting goaltender and Subban has a career 2.97 goals allowed average while also posting a .899 career save percentage.
• COL 1- Burakovsky, MacKinnon, Rantanen- This should be a high owned line stack but they are as solid as it gets. As a full-line last season, they posted a 2.78xGF/60 and 33 SCF/60 which are very solid numbers to go off of.
• EDM 1- Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid, Kassian- As noted above, McDavid has torched Vancouver over the years as he has scored a point in 11 straight games against Vancouver (4 goals, 12 assists). Stacking his top line would be a good idea in your tournament lines as he could very well rack up a few goals and you will want those additional assists that could come from his linemates at lower ownership.
• PHI 1-Lindblom, Couturier, Konecny- Home ice advantage is a big plus for this team and this group posted a 63 corsi for and an xGF/60 of 2.76 in 177 minutes of ice time last season.
• CHI 1- DeBrincat, Strome, Kane- This is a riskier play as Tampa is the largest favorite on the slate but the cheaper price points of Strome, Keith, and DeBrincat allow you to pay up for a more expensive stack for your tournament lineup.

Analysis: This is a nice five-game slate to kick off the season with. The top lines for Tampa Bay and Toronto could be the highest owned lines on the slate while Edmonton and Colorado follow right behind them from an ownership perspective. Philadelphia at home is extremely tough to go against as they scored 3.51 goals per game last season at home while holding opponents to just 2 goals per game. With Tampa being a heavy favorite, a leverage spot is to target the top two lines for Chicago since they should come in lower owned. Chicago beat Tampa on the road in Tampa Bay last February and with the Lightning missing Kucherov, it could be an opportunity for the Blackhawks to squeak out a win. If looking for other cheaper stacks to roster in tournaments, consider PHI 3, COL 2, and TB2/3.

Key Abbreviations

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SCF/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller Premium Slack Chatroom!

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