NFL DFS Value Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel - Week 16 DFS Cash Games

December 27, 2020

Brian Entrekin analyzes optimal DFS cash game value plays for Week 16 of the NFL season. These players are worth considering on FanDuel and DraftKings daily fantasy sports cash games.

We have made it to Week 16 of the NFL season, and we have some injury news to monitor, and for now, no serious COVID issues outside of the Ravens wide receivers on our hands. We have a 10 game slate thanks to three Saturday games and one game on Christmas Day. It is a weird week when looking at the Vegas lines as there is only one game with a total of over 50, but there are four games with spreads of a touchdown or more. There will be many different ways to attack this slate, especially from a cash game perspective.

There is not a ton of value when initially looking at the Week 16 slate from a cash game perspective as we are still awaiting injury news. The quarterback position is definitely a positing to pay up for, especially with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in great spots. The running back position has a little more flexibility when it comes to spending. The top option is like David Montgomery, then some mid-tier targets, and then the value plays. The wide receiver always has the most valuable targets, and as injury news is released, there may be a lot of really nice targets in the lower price ranges. Ass usual, Tight end has the top target in Travis Kelce, some mid-tier targets, and then a handful of interesting punts. The builds this week should be relatively balanced, but keep an eye out for injuries as it could open this slate up completely.

This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are swinging for the fences somewhat. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, pass attempts, targets, or carriers. Let's take a look at the cash value plays for Week 15 of the 2020 NFL season.

Week 16 Quarterback Cash Game Value Plays

Ryan Finley, CIN at HOU | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,600

I mentioned above that paying up at quarterback is a smart move this week, but if you find yourself looking to save a lot at the position, then Finley is in play. Last week Finley only threw 13 times with one touchdown and ran the ball 10 times with another touchdown. That was an extremely efficient day and may be tough to replicate. The lack of attempts is not ideal, but he also uses his legs to make Finley fantasy relevant. He will take on a Texans Defense that allows nearly 270 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and nearly 20 fantasy points per game over the last four weeks. The Bengals are eight-point underdogs this week and should be passing a lot on Sunday, elevating his floor even more. Finley is not a lock by any means but brings an interesting cash game appeal to Sunday's slate.

Jared Goff, LAR at SEA | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,400

The mid-tier range at quarterback is murky, and there can be cases made for a few different players. I will make my case for the Jekyll and Hyde Rams quarterback Goff. Goff brings a rather safe floor into each game, scoring 15 or more fantasy points in 11 of 14 games this season and scoring less than double digits only once. Sure, you want a high floor, but it is a floor none the less. Over the last few weeks, Goff has even used his legs to find the endzone helping score a combined two touchdowns in each of the last two games. He just missed a massive game in Week 10 versus the Seahawks where he threw for over 300 yards but did not have any touchdowns. He gets a "take 2" this week versus a Seahawks Defense that ranks 29 on the season versus quarterbacks. They are allowing over 300 yards passing and over 23 fantasy points per game. The Rams are one point underdogs with a 23.5 point implied team total, and they lost Cam Akers last week, which may result in a more pass-heavy attack. Goff should pay off in cash games if looking for a mid-priced option.

Week 16 Running Back Cash Game Value Plays

Giovani Bernard, CIN at HOU | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,000

It feels like Deja Vu with the Bengals. This time last year, their season was already over, yet they worked Joe Mixon into the ground. Here we are again as their season is over, and just last week, we saw Gio rush 25 times for 83 yards and two scores. Before last week Gio had a couple of rough goes, including a game where he was benched for fumbling, but I will not worry as last week lets us know the Bengals are not worried about that. This week he gets a great matchup for running backs as the Bengals take on the Texans. A Texans defense ranks 31 on the season and 30 over the last four games versus running backs. Over the last four games, they allow 114.5 rushing yards, six or more receptions, and over 30 fantasy points per game to opposing backs. The Bengals are eight-point underdogs, so even if they cannot rush a lot, Gio can be used in the receiving game. He is always risky, but his price point and matchup this week puts him into a near-cash game lock.

J.K. Dobbins, BAL vs NYG | DK: $6,200, FD: $6,300

It only took nine weeks, but the Ravens finally wisened up and made Dobbins their RB1. Before we go further, I will remind you that Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards are still around and slightly involved in the backfield, but for now, it is the Dobbins show. Over the last four weeks, he has carried the ball at least 11 times, scored a touchdown in each game, and has double-digit fantasy points. He faces a Giants Defense this weekend that has been better against the run of late, allowing only 75 yards on the ground but still allows over 20 fantasy points per game to opposing backs. The Ravens are 11 point favorites this week with an implied team total of 27.5. The Ravens should be running the ball early and often, and Dobbins is due for a monster game, especially in your cash games.

Le'Veon Bell, KC vs ATL | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,400

In Bell's first game last week without Clyde Edwards-Helaire, he ran the ball 15 times, threw in a catch, found the end zone, and scored nearly 15 fantasy points. He has another outstanding matchup this week, versus a Falcons Defense who ranks 16 versus running backs over the last four weeks. It also helps that the Chiefs are 10.5 point favorites with an implied team total over 32!!!!! The scary part with the Chiefs is they will throw no matter what, making the running backs a tricky spot, but this week everyone should get theirs. Realize Bell will be very popular, especially in cash. Not playing Bell could be the same as not playing Tony Pollard and/or Leonard Fournette last week.

Week 16 Wide Receiver Cash Game Value Plays

Russell Gage, ATL at KC | DK: $5,100, FD: $5,800

Tell me if you have heard this one before, "Julio Jones is inactive this week"? Yep, we have reached another week with no Julio, which opens things up once again for Gage. With Julio out, Gage is flourishing. He has seven or more targets in each game over the last three weeks and even has 5 or more targets in each game over the last six. Gage has four or more receptions in the last three games, has scored in two of three, and has scored at least 15 fantasy points in each game. He receives nearly 22% of the target share and 31% of the red-zone targets over the last three games. With the Falcons being such massive underdogs and likely throwing a lot, Gage should be in line for another strong fantasy game along with side fellow stud Calvin Ridley.

Darnell Mooney, CHI at JAX | DK: $4,000, FD: $5,400

Mooney brings an outstanding cash game floor into Sunday's game versus the Jags. He has scored eight or more fantasy points in six of the last seven games and double-digit points in two straight. He has become one of Mitchell Trubisky's favorite wide receiver targets over the last few weeks. This week should be no different as he faces a Jags defense that ranks 22 versus wide receivers over the last four games, allowing over a touchdown per game and nearly 40 fantasy points per game. Mooney brings outstanding salary relief to a cash lineup while also bringing a great cash game floor.

Week 16 Tight End Cash Game Value Plays

Jordan Akins, HOU vs CIN | DK: $3,300, FD: $5,100

When it comes to the values at the tight end position, it gets a little murky. There are a few different targets, but for now, I am targeting Akins in a great matchup versus the Bengals. He is coming off back to back games where he has been target six times in each game, with at least three receptions in both games. Over those two games, Deshaun Watson appears to be focusing a bit more on Akins as he has a near 19% target share and 12.5% red-zone target share. He will be facing a Bengals Defense that ranks 27 versus the tight end over the last four weeks, allowing over five receptions, over 60 receiving yards, and nearly 15 fantasy points per week. The Texans are eight-point favorites with an implied team total of 27, meaning they should find the end-zone a few times. If Akins finds his way to the end-zone, you will be set at the tight end position.

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