FAB Bidding - Week 2 Waiver Wire Targets

September 16, 2020

Nick Mariano's pre-Week 1 waiver wire FAB bidding recommendations. How much to spend in fantasy football leagues using FAB (free agent budget), formerly FAAB.

Joining our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). In case you were not aware, several fantasy sports platforms are switching from FAAB to FAB in 2020, and RotoBaller will make that change as well.

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.

It's difficult to toe the line between appropriate action and overreaction, but following context-aware volume is typically the best strategy. Will you be an aggressor early, looking to score those league-winners as they emerge? Or do you hold onto more funds in 2020 given the enhanced uncertainty with player availability? Whatever your attitude, here's my median FAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 2.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew II (QB, JAX) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

26% rostered

He still wasn’t worth drafting in the first round like some beer promotions would’ve had you do, but he exceeded expectations by completing 19-of-20 passes for 173 yards and a trio of TDs. He added 19 ground yards on five totes and remains a threat to tuck it and scamper. Seeing chemistry with Laviska Shenault Jr. (only 12% rostered himself) was nice and Keelan Cole played well. Eventually, we’ll see Chris Conley and Tyler Eifert mix in as well.

19 of 20 passing
95% completion
173 passing yards
3 Touchdowns
0 Interceptions
1 WIN@GardnerMinshew5 is more than just a meme.#DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/TfEujK4xKv

— #DUUUVAL (@Jaguars) September 13, 2020

The Jags aren’t likely to play with a lead too often and Minshew should be playing hard all four quarters. Going against TEN in Week 2 isn’t ideal, but he’ll face Miami, Cincinnati, Houston, and Detroit in Week 3-6 before their bye.

Mitch Trubisky (QB, CHI) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

3% rostered

Yeah, I know, but 2020 is weird and Trubs got it done against Detroit in Week 1. He rewarded management believing in him with 242 pass yards, three TDs and another 26 rush yards on top. We can’t paint him as consistent, he was pretty bad until the fourth quarter started, but a Week 2 home matchup with the Giants provides upside for streamers. Would you believe that he was one of the 11 QBs that topped 25 rush yards in Week 1? If you need another low-rostered pivot, Tyrod Taylor will simply need to do more against the Chiefs.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Nyheim Hines (RB, IND) - FAB Bid: 10-12%

20% rostered

With Marlon Mack suffering an ankle/foot injury, Hines stepped up alongside Jonathan Taylor for the Colts. The receiving back caught all eight of his targets for 45 yards and a score, adding on 28 rush yards and another TD on seven totes. 73 yards and two scores on 15 touches are efficient and it didn’t feel fluky. Hines wound up with six red-zone touches to Taylor’s four, and his workload should be greater in this early stretch as Taylor earns his stripes. I'm not reading too much into "starter" designations with a team like Indy, but it's worth noting Taylor is the starter:

Frank Reich confirms: Rookie Jonathan Taylor is the team's starting running back.

Nyheim Hines will still very much be involved.

— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) September 14, 2020

Benny Snell Jr. (RB, PIT) - FAB Bid: 10-12%

16% rostered

Snell looked to be the stronger RB early on Monday night, with James Conner struggling to move the pile or hit the hole. It was revealed at halftime that Conner had a left ankle injury and that vaults Snell into must-add territory, let alone that he collected 113 yards on 19 carries, with Jaylen Samuels becoming a deep factor in PPR formats. When the Steelers O-line gets David DeCastro (knee) back then it’ll be a solid unit capable of paving the way for Snell. Pittsburgh gets Denver at home in Week 2, which should err on the side of a defensive battle but the Broncos without Von Miller give PIT the edge. Coach Mike Tomlin said Conner was being "evaluated" -- given the injury history and performance, Snell looks to be the dude for now. But I wouldn't throw the entire bank at this.

Malcolm Brown (RB, LAR) - FAB Bid: 10-12%

27% rostered

Brown crushed with 110 total yards and two touchdowns on 21 touches, easily outperforming Cam Akers as the reliable veteran. It’s not totally surprising to see his familiarity payoff with playing time against Akers, who didn’t even get a preseason. But to see Brown reward them with strong results both in open space and at the goal line was something else. Brown may not be a stud and we’ve seen flashes from him before, but the Rams offense can move the ball and you’ll want their current 1A RB on your team. Coach Sean McVay has been open about the hot-hand approach, so don't be surprised if this is a repeat of last season when Brown smashed in the opener and that wound up as his best game of 2019.

Joshua Kelley (RB, LAC) - FAB Bid: 5-6%

13% rostered

Kelley turned his first 12 NFL carries into 60 yards and a touchdown, helping fuel LAC’s 16-13 victory over Cincy. Everyone’s worrying about Austin Ekeler’s one catch but he still wound up with 87 yards on 20 touches -- he’ll be fine. But Kelley still made a statement with his play, which gets compounded by Justin Jackson’s quad injury. Even if Jackson is available for Week 2’s climb against Kansas City, Kelley looks like the No. 2 with a share worthy of flexing in deeper leagues.

Peyton Barber (RB, WSH) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

3% rostered

This is based on role, not results, as Barber was Washington’s short-yardage and goal-line back throughout Week 1. As a result, he only logged 29 yards on 17 carries but punched in two touchdowns. Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic aren’t big enough to push the pile and Bryce Love was a healthy scratch, leaving Barber as the big-bodied back to crush the trenches. Overall, he still only played 29-of-70 snaps (41%) while McKissic paced the lot with 31. Gibson only played 18, but that figures to increase with time. But Barber had a whopping 10 red-zone opportunities, more than the rest of the team combined.

Josh Adams (RB, NYJ) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

0% rostered

If Le’Veon Bell’s hamstring injury keeps him out of Week 2 then Adams is probably the better bet than Frank Gore moving forward. It was Adams who punched a late TD in against Buffalo and got involved in the passing game with two receptions. Don’t get ahead of yourself as he still only had 22 total yards, but the Jets were on their back foot against Buffalo. Unfortunately, they’ll face similar odds against San Francisco in Week 2 so this is only for the desperate.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Parris Campbell (WR, IND) - FAB Bid: 10-12%

22% rostered

Campbell sprinkled a nine-yard rush in with his 6-71-0 receiving line on nine targets. It appears the offseason love was warranted, as Philip Rivers leaned into his Campbell’s size-speed combo over the middle of the field. Discussions around Campbell must always address his lengthy medical sheet, namely the broken hand and foot alongside a sports hernia and hamstring injury. If he stays on the field, he should have a healthy floor due to being Rivers’ slot man with an intriguing ceiling thanks to his blazing speed.

Scotty Miller (WR, TB) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

6% rostered

Miller came alive with five catches for 73 yards on six looks, finishing behind only Chris Godwin as a receiver. He clearly earned the trust of Tom Brady, who we’ve seen elevate many a “no-name” receiver to fantasy relevance. It was encouraging to see Miller used on some intermediate routes rather than being a situational deep threat. But we must be mindful that Mike Evans was limited and the Bucs have many weapons to deploy. With a juicy matchup against Carolina on tap for Week 2 and Evans no lock to be 100% for the game, Miller should be a strong add.

Steven Sims Jr. (WR, WAS) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

7% rostered

Don’t let the haters drag you down for believing in Sims here, as he still notched 50 yards on just three catches with Washington playing ahead of Philly on Sunday. You won’t see Washington be able to nurse the clock with a lead too often, meaning Sims (and Terry McLaurin) should see more work. It isn’t like Sims suffered any drops or gave any reason not to be involved. They should need more passing in Week 2 at Arizona, even with their improved defense.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB) - FAB Bid: 6-8%

7% rostered

We noted how MVS drew praise from Aaron Rodgers this preseason, which was validated early by a 45-yard TD. While the 4-96-1 line on six targets is outstanding on the surface, he also had two awful drops. One was an easy crosser that led to a punt and the other would’ve been a long TD, so consistency remains an issue. Meanwhile, Allen Lazard caught all four of his targets for 63 yards and a score of his own. Everyone here is second fiddle to Davante Adams, but the Lions secondary has been generous to multiple WRs so Week 2 should be fun.

Davante Adams averaged 3.63 yards per route run in Week 1, per @PFF. Marquez Valdes-Scantling wasn't far behind at 3.31. Both in the top 10 among NFL WRs

— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) September 15, 2020

Russell Gage (WR, ATL) - FAB Bid: 4-5%

2% rostered

Gage benefited from Atlanta playing from behind for much of Sunday, collecting 114 yards on nine catches, but that may be a frequent sight in 2020. It wasn’t just him, as Julio Jones put up 157 yards while Calvin Ridley scored twice with 130 yards. Another piece of good news here is that Gage wasn’t frozen out by the superstar wideouts when ATL hit the red zone. He saw two looks inside the 20, with Jones seeing one and Ridley garnering four. Ryan isn’t afraid to look Gage’s way and they’re not deliberately scheming away from him, so take those garbage-time yards with a big ol’ grin.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Logan Thomas (TE, WSH) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

1% rostered

Thomas led Washington with eight targets in Week 1, catching four of them for 37 yards and a wide-open touchdown in their win over Philly.

A QB to QB connection Dwayne Haskins finds former Virginia Tech QB-turned-TE Logan Thomas for the score.pic.twitter.com/hyivvMqd8R

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 13, 2020

This team has little competition on the receiving depth chart outside of Terry McLaurin and Stevens Sims Jr. so Thomas should get a generous share of the action. Early results only help grease the wheel. Washington wasn’t even stuck in catch-up mode thanks to Philly’s offensive collapse (and some fine work by the WSH D-line). Just wait until they’re trailing all game and Thomas sees double-digit looks! Next week at Arizona should bring an up-tempo game with lots of looks to go around.

Jimmy Graham (TE, CHI) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

5% rostered

As we mentioned with Trubisky, the Bears offense played surprisingly well against Detroit with Graham being a fixture near the red zone. He hauled in one TD and fell inches shy of a second, which is encouraging usage heading into a Week 2 date with the Giants Defense. The Bears have Allen Robinson II and Anthony Miller on the perimeter, but Graham can still get loose and find space. This is more about the matchup than Graham, but you’ll take the RZ targets out of the gate regardless.

Jordan Reed (TE, SF) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

2% rostered

Just throwing this out there in case George Kittle’s knee injury proves to be an issue as the week progresses. If swelling creates a problem and they withhold him from Week 2 then Reed, who only played on 16% of the snaps, could come in for passing situations. Lest we forget that he’s a 6’3” beast that could grow into this offense, especially if the WR corps is banged up for a lengthy stretch. Or Jerick McKinnon (11% rostered) becomes a de facto wideout for them, they need help regardless.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense (vs CAR) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

24% rostered

Drew Brees and company mitigated Tampa’s rush well, but I don’t trust Carolina to do the same and I certainly don’t trust Carolina’s defense to limit the Bucs’ offense. If the Panthers are put in a hole and Teddy Bridgewater has to press the action then look for edge pressure to create sack-fumble opportunities. As of Monday night, Tampa is favored by as many as nine points in Vegas.

Arizona Cardinals Defense (vs WAS) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

2% rostered

Arizona stood up against the defending NFC champs on Sunday, holding the 49ers to 20 points while racking up three sacks and a blocked kick. While Washington played well against Philadelphia, I trust the Cards to put more pressure with pace of play.  When in doubt, streamers should look for a home team that’s favored. If Arizona’s up by two scores in the fourth then Haskins should be forced into lengthy drops and riskier throws. As of Monday night, most sportsbooks have Arizona favored by 6.5 or 7 points.

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