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The Toronto Blue Jays acquired starting pitcher Robbie Ray from Arizona before the 2020 trade deadline despite his struggles this season. Frank Ammirante evaluates Ray's fantasy baseball value as a rebound candidate in the second half.
Robbie Ray is in the midst of an awful season, posting a 7.84 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, and a hideous 20.1 BB%. Hitters have been able to pound his pitches, as he's allowed a 13.9 Barrel% and 2.61 HR/9. These type of numbers should have you ignoring his trade to the American League and Toronto Blue Jays, right? WRONG.
In this article, we'll take a look at what makes Ray an intriguing starting pitcher for the stretch run in the fantasy season. We'll examine the Blue Jays' recent track record along with Ray's pitch mix to help make the case for the Robbie Ray reclamation.
The time to act on Ray is now. The change of scenery will do wonders for him. There's a great chance that he's been dropped in your league. Put in the FAAB bid. Place the waiver claim. Do whatever you need to do to acquire him and reap the rewards.
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Mechanical Adjustments
Ray came into the season with a ton of hype because of a change in arm angle:
Lot of buzz around Robbie Ray these last few days. His arm-action change is pretty substantial. Sky is the limit if his walks come down.
Also noticed his momentum towards home plate is direct. Still a 3B side fall-off but more controlled. #DBacks pic.twitter.com/p3pVB7KRz0
— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) July 19, 2020
This change looked promising because he was dominating D-Backs' summer camp:
.@RobbieRay at #DbacksSummerCamp:
11 IP
1 H
17 K pic.twitter.com/YQGivJDsc9— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) July 16, 2020
Obviously, the changes haven't worked out so far this season, as he's walking hitters and getting hit harder than ever before. The good news is that the Blue Jays have had a solid track record with veteran pitchers.
Toronto's Track Record
The Blue Jays have had recent success with veteran pitchers because of one man: Pete Walker. He took over as the team's pitching coach in 2013 and has really done well in recent years. Let's take a look at how he's helped tap into the potential of newly acquired pitchers in their first year in Toronto.
Before arriving in Toronto, Estrada had real issues with keeping the ball in the park. At the time, many thought that this problem would be amplified in the bandbox that is the Rogers' Centre. SPOILER: They were wrong.
| MIL (2014) | 150.2 IP | 4.36 ERA | 1.20 WHIP | 1.73 HR/9 | -9.8 FB pitchVAL | 5.6 CH pitchVAL |
| TOR (2015) | 181.0 IP | 3.13 ERA | 1.04 WHIP | 1.19 HR/9 | 10.3 FB pitchVAL | 12.7 CH pitchVAL |
Estrada enjoyed his best season in his first year in Toronto. His changeup became a devastating weapon.
Francisco Liriano
Liriano was getting rocked in Pittsburgh before he was traded to Toronto in 2016. Look what happened when he met Mr. Walker.
| PIT (2016) | 108.2 IP | 5.46 ERA | 1.62 WHIP | 22.2 K% | 13.2 BB% | 10.8 SwStr% |
| TOR (2016) | 49.1 IP | 2.92 ERA | 1.18 WHIP | 25.0 K% | 7.7 BB% | 12.7 SwStr% |
Liriano gave the team a nice lift down the stretch before being dealt in the following season for Teoscar Hernandez.
Shoemaker was mostly ineffective and had trouble staying healthy as an Angel. In Toronto, he has still struggled with injuries, but look how he improved in his first year.
| LAA (2018) | 31.0 IP | 4.94 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 43.5 GB% | 13.0 SwStr% |
| TOR (2019) | 28.2 IP | 1.57 ERA | 0.87 WHIP | 51.4 GB% | 13.4 SwStr% |
Shoemaker was able to induce groundballs at an even higher rate and he dominated before tearing his ACL early in the season.
Other veteran pitchers like Hyun-Jin Ryu and Chase Anderson have also had success this year under Walker's tutelage. Walker has also helped develop a bullpen that has been surprisingly effective, including young arms like Jordan Romano and Thomas Hatch that have seemingly come out of nowhere. Walker is quite possibly the best-kept secret in baseball right now, as a pitching coach that can yield more value out of struggling veterans. This bodes well for Ray.
Pitch Mix
| Four-Seamer (2019) | Four-Seamer (2020) |
| 92.7 Avg Velocity | 93.9 Avg Velocity |
| 42.7% Usage | 48.0% Usage |
| 89.2 Exit Velocity | 92.4 Exit Velocity |
| 8.0 SwStr% | 5.5% SwStr |
As we can see here, Ray's four-seamer is getting absolutely pounded despite the 1.2 MPH increase in velocity. Ray's F-Strike% has decreased from 59.4% to 46.1%, so he's falling behind and hitters are finding themselves in favorable counts, ready to pound the fastball. The good news is that his slider (18.5 SwStr%) and curveball (20.3 SwStr%) are still missing bats, so it looks like Ray needs to start relying on his breaking pitches more often.
Outlook
Obviously fixing Ray's control problems is a tall task, but his current 20.1 BB% is a result of a small sample, as it's nearly twice as high as his 2019 rate of 11.2 BB%. Ray's walk rate has nowhere to go but down in Toronto. Pete Walker has demonstrated the ability to get the best out of his pitchers, particularly veteran newcomers, so I'm betting on Ray providing fantasy value for the stretch run. Perhaps Walker will influence Ray to rely on his breaking pitches more. Maybe he can tap into the success Ray was having in summer camp with the change in arm angle. Either way, this is a low-risk, high-reward move for both the Blue Jays and your fantasy team.
Is this the start of the Ray Reclamation in Toronto, or will he continue his struggles? I'm betting on the former. Buy Ray the Blue Jay and thank me later.
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