RADIO
Sometimes fantasy GMs focus too much on raw, counting stats for running backs. How many yards did they rush for? How many touchdowns did they score? Perhaps, taking it one step further, they end looking at some "manufactured" numbers such as yards per carry, yards after contact, etc... But there is something more that correlates to running back performance that is often overlooked: the strength of the offensive line they play under.
It is definitely hard to assess how much impact any OL has on running back performance on a play-by-play basis, but at the end of the year, it's easy to look at season-long data and make a strong correlation between the strength of offensive lines and the production that comes from the backfield. While quarterbacks and wide receivers are also affected by how good the OL that protects them or gives them time to work their routes is, the biggest impact any good or bad OL causes is on running backs.
Today I will hand you a few top-tier OLs (as ranked by PFF) and the rushers that will benefit from playing under them. Let's get to it!
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2020 Best Offensive Line Situations
PFF No. 1 OL - Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor, Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines
Knowing that Indy was able to retain all of the pieces that formed the 2019 No. 3 OL, it makes sense for them to have jumped a couple of spots in the rankings to claim the top spot in the offensive line leaderboards. Not only will the Colts return all five OL starters, but they have also added even more power to the pair of RBs (Mack and Hines) they featured last season by drafting rookie RB Jonathan Taylor.
While I'm still skeptical of the whole Taylor-over-Mack projections out there and think that the veteran will at least start the season as the leading back, the fact is that Taylor can't be in a better situation. Indianapolis' OL should protect his runs better than any other line in the league, open as many holes as he can go through, and ease his transition from college to the NFL. Both Taylor and Mack project to finish with fewer than 25 targets each, but his rush-only game shouldn't be affected at all (actually, he will be boosted up) by the OL they'll share the field with.
Speaking of targets, Nyheim Hines is expected to rack up 60 targets (via PFF projections), and playing behind such a powerful OL will give him time to develop his routes and find places to receive passes from new QB Philip Rivers. Indianapolis' sort of RBBC might scare you a little bit, but given the OL in place, those doubts will be rendered nil sooner rather than later.
PFF No. 2 OL - New Orleans Saints
The Saints offensive line ranked as the fifth-best of 2019 and New Orleans is bringing back four of its five starters from a year ago. Even despite losing Larry Warford and replacing him with a rookie next season, PFF bumped up the Saints to the runner-up spot entering 2020.
It's not that Alvin Kamara needs even more help to play like a true stud. I mean, we all know Kamara's exploits by now. He's one of the top-five running backs in the NFL and that's why fantasy GMs are drafting him as the RB4 this offseason. Even under a bad OL, he'd still thrive. Don't hesitate to draft him.
What makes this situation interesting, though, is Lavavius Murray's upside as an under-the-radar target to draft late. Murray is going off the board as just the RB45 with an ADP of 119 (almost inside the 11th round of 12-team league drafts). On the other hand, PFF projects him to 154.2 PPR points, 147 rushing attempts, and 32 targets for an RB31 finish in 2020. The ROI Murray brings to the table is incredible, and he will be playing under one of the best (if not the best) OLs in the league. If Kamara misses time, don't rule out Murray as an unexpected league winner.
PFF No. 4 OL - Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, A.J. Dillon
Pretty much as with Indianapolis' backfield, Green Bay will feature three players in its backfield in 2020. Jones and Williams are returning to the team while Dillon was drafted a few months ago (supposedly to cover Jones' departure as a free agent next summer). No matter what, all of the three running backs should have booming seasons if only because of the top-five OL they'll be playing under.
Jones is the clear go-to player and No. 1 option. PFF has him projected to reach a monster 242.2 PPR points over the year, which would make him the RB8 of 2020 and the 15th-best player overall. He's currently getting drafted as the RB10, so he's still a little bit undervalued by fantasy GMs, even more considering the great situation he's at in Green Bay.
While it is not clear what will happen between second fiddles Williams and Dillon, they should make for great fliers in later rounds. Both of them have ADPs over 150, with Williams getting drafted as the RB58 and Dillon as the RB52. Williams projects to finish 2020 as the RB41 (130.2 PPR), which would mean that he should hand a very positive ROI to those drafting him later in drafts.
PFF No. 6 OL - Cleveland Browns
Although the Browns had just the 23th-best OL of 2019 they spent big-time dollars on improving it during the past few months and PFF has it as a top-10 unit entering 2020. It was also named the most-improved OL during this offseason. Not bad news from the Chubb-Hunt pairing in Cleveland (not to mention QB Baker Mayfield and the receiving corps expectations, which should rise under such a strong OL).
I've always been too much into both Chubb and Hunt in Cleveland, and I'm one of those thinking Hunt is one of the most overlooked rushers in the league for the upcoming season. Sure, Chubb is the No. 1 RB on the Browns and he'll get all of the touches he can handle and then some (PFF has him reaching 240.8 PPR points and finishing as the RB9), but Hunt can both run the ball and catch it through the air, having a great upside.
The best of all about Cleveland's backfield situation, OL included, is that while Chubb comes at a rather expensive price, Hunt does so as just the RB29 currently with an ADP over 57 overall, that is, a fifth-round pick. It will be hard for Hunt to outperform Chubb, but given the price the former comes at and the great Browns OL everything points in the right direction to make him a true steal come draft day.
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