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Saves are an unpredictable stat to chase, so many fantasy baseball leagues are moving to count saves and holds (SV+HLD). Mike Schwarzenbach discusses how to approach relief pitchers (RP) in leagues that use this scoring format.
No position has seen as much evolution in recent seasons as the relief pitcher. Gone are the days where starters were expected to go seven innings as most teams have embraced the idea of "super-bullpening" and try to fit as many pitchers that can throw 95+ MPH into their bullpen as they can.
Many fantasy leagues have begun to embrace this trend as well with leagues opting to include saves-plus-holds as a category instead of the traditional saves category. So how should you go about attacking the RP spots on your roster if playing in a league that gives credit to the unheralded middle reliever?
Keep reading below for my tips on how to gain an edge over your competition in leagues that reward the relievers that get the ball to the ninth inning men we all know and love.
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Target Good Pitchers
It sounds too simple to be true, but playing in a saves-plus-holds league puts more of an onus on talent rather than opportunity. Anyone who's played in a categories-based fantasy league knows the running of the bulls-type scramble that ensues to pick up the next-in-line when a closer gets injured or traded. It doesn't matter if that player is on the worst team in the Majors; if a pitcher is in line to get saves, he will get scooped up instantly in fantasy baseball.
Adding holds to fantasy changes that completely. While there are only 20-something players at a given time that will help in saves, adding holds to the mix waters down the player pool to the point every team in a fantasy league can find players who contribute in SV+HLD. This means the true difference makers are the ones who contribute something else useful to your fantasy squad.
Elite pitchers, like Nick Anderson of the Rays, gain significant value in this format. A forward-thinking organization like Tampa Bay likely won't settle on a permanent closer. Anderson will be used in any high-leverage situation, regardless of the inning, so he'll likely rack up a ton of both saves and holds making him a top-10 option in this format. The tall right-hander struck out 110 batters in just 65 innings last season which made him a startable reliever in traditional roto leagues where holds don't matter. Give him credit for 16 holds to go along with his Ks and ratios and you've got a must-start reliever who is a top-flight option in this format.
Don't Overcorrect
As different as it is to play in a league that rewards holds, saves are still king. Last season, eight relievers had more saves than the three-way-tie atop the holds leaderboard. Looking back three seasons, 10 relievers have more saves than the holds leader (Adam Ottavino) has in that span. Saves plus holds leagues reward both stats equally so don't completely forget about saves just because you can fill the category with holds as well.
Playing in a league with holds changes how most fantasy managers approach the relief pitcher position. If too many managers start waiting on reliever under the assumption that they can fill the SV+HLD category late in the draft, then it could create value on the elite closers. Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, and Roberto Osuna are all still better fantasy options in this format than any middle reliever available, so if they start to fall in the draft don't be afraid to pull the trigger on an elite closer just because the demand for them is lessened.
Pick Pitchers On Good Teams
This is another tip that sounds overly simple, but it's one of the easiest ways to accumulate saves and holds. Last season, 11 of the top 12 teams in the holds rankings had a winning record. You don't need a statistics degree to know that winning teams have more leads and more leads mean more save and hold opportunities.
The Yankees alone produced three of the top-nine holds leaders last season in Zach Britton, Adam Ottavino, and Tommy Kahnle. All three had at least 27 holds with Ottavino and Kahnle both adding strikeout rates above 31 percent. They are all back this season with the same manager on a team many are projecting to win 100+ games, so it's reasonable to expect at least 25 saves plus holds from each again this season. Other good teams, like Houston, had more established bullpen roles with Ryan Pressly setting up Osuna. Pressly tied for the league lead with 31 holds and produced a sub-one WHIP. He will be back in the same role and should have plenty of late leads to protect for the Astros.
Embrace the Change
Playing in a saves-plus-holds league is different than most fantasy managers are used to and fantasy baseball purists (such as myself) can find it intimidating to learn how to optimize their roster without having years of experience to draw on. That being said, new rules create new opportunities for your team to gain an edge over the competition. Many casual fans don't know non-closers on teams other than their own, so having a knowledge of the bullpens around the majors gives you a leg up. Half of competing in saves in fantasy baseball is simply being on top of bullpen roles. RotoBaller provides frequent updates of closer situations so keep it here for analysis on who is getting saves, and holds, in each team's bullpen all season long.
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